Axs and Kxs pre-flop

1. How many callers do I need in order play hands like Axs and Kxs in a loose passive game?


2. If I am in early position and I am positive there will be at least 4 callers and no raises should I be playing hands like these? Is position a major factor in this decision?


3. Say I flop a 4-flush on the button, UTG bets out and 4 call to me, I raise and everyone calls. Now a non flush card comes on the turn and everyone checks to me.....I want to know if I am supposed to check and take the free card or bet, if i'm building a big pot on the flop then why shouldn't I keep building on the turn?

1. I would say you need at least 3-4 limpers before you act. These are hands you should be playing late. KXs is even somewhat questionable of a call and should only be done on button or possibly in the blind if no raises have happened. If the pot is raised, these hands hit the muck.


2. I would say to definitely avoid the KXs from an early position. In a loose, passive game where there isn't much raising, you might opt to play AXs but it is questionable.


3. It depends. If you think everyone might fold, then bet. You might bet anyway just to build the pot but I think the free card is a better option if you are up against more than 2 people. You can play it either way, and the deception in playing it both ways will keep your opponents guessing. However, if you bet and someone has a very strong made hand, you might get checkraised. So like I said initially, it all depends on your competitors and how you feel.

I would bet particularly Ace-high flush draw in button on the turn too, for the following reasons:


1)It could make a world of difference to my implied odds if someone else is on the flush draw, and it should hit. Raising the flop in button and then checking the turn oozes a draw, and an average or better player might save himself one or two big bets on the river by picking up on this move. Of course it's also a great value bet should I get called by only a worse draw.


2) I might force out players holding cards which would mean rivered top pair of aces but no kicker would be beaten, by betting here I will often buy myself three extra pair outs.


3) With additional pair outs (or a gutshot to go which is even better), it would only be a bit bad to get excactly ONE caller. With two callers I'm only losing a tiny fraction of my big bet with 12 outs, and with more callers it's actually a value bet if all 12 outs are good (unlikely that a rivered pair of aces, no kicker will hold up against three or more callers on the turn, and also likely that two of my flush outs is occupied by someone else).


But with nut flush draw and an overcard/gutshot I believe you have a bet in button position, and A or K high flush draw with two overcards or an open-ended straight draw to go is not even debateable.


lars

Axs is MUCH better than Kxs. The ability to have top draw and make top pair makes quite a bit of difference.


Yes, position is important. Screwing around hands play so much differently based on position. I think you can always play Axs in late position when there has been no raise; either calling or raising yourself.


[3a] You are only a 2:1 underdog to make the flush from the flop, since you have two cards to go. With 9 outs and 37 bad cards you are a little worse than 4:1 to make the flush on the turn. If the flush is always good and missing always loses, then you need to average 4 callers on the turn to break even on a raise. If you have an over-card and there has been no raises, then I'd guess that you will win more often when you miss the flush (i.e. you snag a pair) than you will lose when you make the flush. Combine this with the threat of a raise and losing callers, I'd say 4:1 is a reasonable risk-reward ratio for nut flush draws on the turn. And it does good for you image.


- Louie

I agree with the other players in saying that Kxs is a very very marginal hand....you need a lot of callers, no preflop raises, and be on the button or in the cutoff (one right of the button) to call. Position is VERY IMPORTANT in all starting hand selections. In this case, you need the position to compensate for your marginal hand...problem is, if you do get your flush cards but you don't have the nuts (the Ace of your suit isn't out there,) you can't bet it as hard because it's not the nut flush. Dirty little secret...players like me LOVE it when suckers play practically any two suited cards and think their flush is good, when we know it's not.


Ax suited is one of the leaks I need to plug. I play it out of position (even though I know I shouldn't....A9s is what I call "the McDermott," after Mike McDermott in Rounders...I should know better since he lost that huge pot with A9 clubs against Teddy KGB in the beginning of the movie.) I would say that you need to be in the last half of the betting order with three or more callers and no raises in front of you to call with Ax suited. If you're on the button, you can raise or possibly call a raise cold if there are three or more callers to that raise. You're getting great pot odds if you hit your flush. Give preference to the suited face cards and the low cards (2-5) over the middle cards (6-9) because these can give you additional straight outs (you just might backdoor that wheel instead of hitting your flush.)


As far as raising the flop with a four-flush on the button, and then getting it checked to you when a blank hits, make the action that will disguise your hand the most. I would check sometimes and bet sometimes...either way you go is probably good. One trap you can go for is if your four-flush is out there along with a potential straight draw (or made straight,) consider checking. You're just as likely to hit your flush as they are to hit their open-ender. The best card you could hope for is the straight card of your suit. The straight hand may bet out, thinking you may be on the same draw or have a lesser straight. When you raise, he will almost always call. Checking on the turn also protects you against a potential checkraise from someone who was slowplaying a set or other good hand (as some good players will do.) Even if they know what you're doing, it really won't matter if you hit your flush. The free card play is a good play to run, even if it screams "DRAW."

I agree with almost everything mentioned right above, except that you should only raise with Axs pre-flop if you have (or know you will have) 6 or more callers. Your odds of getting a flop containing two or more of your suit is 5.8:1, in other words it'll happen about about 14.7% of the time. Thus you want the money you're putting into the pot to make up less than 14.7% of it (of course I'm speaking pre-flop). I believe this is an example of "betting/raising for value", right?

Your math is off. Chances of flopping 2 or 3 cards of your suit are:


3*(11*10*39)/(50*49*48) + (11*10*9)/(50*49*48)


= 13,860/117,600 = 11.79% = 7.5:1 dog


This is the figure quoted in the hold'em books I've read.

1. I like to have three or more.


2. yes, position is a big issue with Axs and especially Kxs.


3. Against 1 or 2 opponents on the turn, I think a bet


is good because you can win the pot. A big factor


is whether your opponents will check-raise the


turn with one pair.

We are talking about the bet on the turn... when considering that bet we need to look at the expected value for the individual wager.


At this limit, I don't see him stealing the pot. In other words, the chances of all four players folding is so unlikely, that it will not even be considered in this point. However a bet has a very good chance of knocking out 1, maybe 2 players.


With the first point in mind, at the turn, he is a 4.1:1 underdog to make his flush by the river (assuming no one else is on a flush draw). Therefore, in the best possible circumstances, (that when he bets, no one folds), he is getting 4:1 from the pot on that bet. Therefore, the bet has a slightly negative expectation.


Checking on the turn is correct.


Of course I will close here with the standard poker strategy disclaimer... "It depends on the situation, your opponents, table texture, yada yada yada... "


But the numbers don't lie.


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