When to stay/fold overcards?

Thanks for this great forum. Between what I've read here and in S&M's books, this beginner is making some money. However, there is a part of my game that I am unsure about: overcards on the flop.


An example from a $.5/1 Paradise game: I have KcTd in the Big Blind. Two MP players and the button call. I've been at this table for a while and the first caller seems fairly tight, the second seems to be playing anything, no data on the button.


Flop is 9d5s5h. I don't know what to do or how to analyze this, so I check. I considered betting to try to win it right then, but this rarely seems to work at these stakes.


The tight player bets. I put him on a 9 because I can't think of very many hands he would play containing a 5. The loose player raises. I put him on a pure bluff, although he is the kind of player that would call pre-flop with a 95. Button folds. Again I don't know what to do or how to really analyze this. I decide to fold because: 1) I think I am beaten right now. 2) There isn't that much in the pot, less than 4:1 pot odds. And with only 6 outs I think that isn't enough. Although at that time I can't do the math accurately in my head fast enough. Is this the right way to analyze this? There must be more to it.


Annoyingly, a K comes on 4th street and then another one on 5th. Tight player wins with 9T suited. So, my question is, how should should I decide about when to bet, call or fold in situations like this? What if the flop hadn't paired? Thanks.

Here is my take on overcards. First, there is a HUGE difference between having 1 or 2 opponents, or having more than 2 opponents. With only one or two opponents, there is usually a reasonable chance they missed and a reasonable chance that you can take down the pot without showing your hand, so you can play a little bit fast, but if you get any heat hit the brakes fast. Now if there are 3 or more opponents you have to slow down. There is now a good chance someone hit the flop, and you may be drawing slim against a possible two-pair or better already. Also, keep in mind that if one of your overcards is an ace, you may hit it on the turn and give an opponent who plays Ax two pair. If there are many opponents I don't like calling with just overcards (a backdoor nut flush helps) if the board is at all coordinated. By coordinated I mean a possible straight draw or flush draw (or even worse, a possible straight draw and flush draw, like two connected cards and a two-flush). If it is already possible for someone to have a made flush or straight just fold. Be VERY scared if there is a pair on the flop. You could be WAY behind. Finally, you can call alot more if you will be closing the betting (i.e. nobody left behind you to call), because then you are sure you can get in for only one bet.


Just my thoughts....


sam

I wouldn't hesitate to fold in this situation. There are too many ways you could be beaten on the flop, and you have to go runner-runner to win if someone has a 5. You would have to catch two tens or two Kings for a full house (which isn't the nut full, since someone could have T9 or, less likely, K9.) Three of each rank left in the deck (even though someone had a T, you don't know that right now) and you have to hit twice...3/47 x 2/46 = 6/2162, or roughly 360:1 against. And you would have to split the pot with a single K or T. Not winning poker as I see it.


You could also get Q J for the straight, but that's no guarantee on the pot with those two 5's out there. Your odds for that are slightly better, but almost as ridiculous as filling up. Don't be too frustrated that you folded what would have been the winner...your fold is correct. Next time you get that situation, toss'em again. Bluffing into a field of loose players, especially at low-low limits, is a losing proposition. Someone's going to call you for the price of a Coke (and it may be three bets when it comes back to you.)


If the flop wasn't paired (say it came down 9 5 4,) a call would still be questionable, IMO. If you do hit the K, your kicker isn't as good as someone who's also trying to catch with KJ or KQ. If you hit the ten, it may be no good if someone's playing T9 (and someone was in this hand.) If you were suited, and there was one card of your suit out there, the additional backdoor flush out may change a fold to a call, but only if you have the A or K. If you have AK overcards in this situation, you would rather see the K come than the A...a lot of LL players will play Ax and the A could give them two pair.


I'm glad you had KTo in the big blind...I hate playing this hand, especially against decent players.

Calling the double bet when you know you are beat with a maximum of 6 outs in a small pot is suicide ..err.. chipicide. However, if you really think it was "close" then you should probably have bet this hand yourself, since you retain whatever "hand value" you believe you have AND you gain the advantage of winning now that calling does not offer.


With 6 outs there are 47 unseen cards or 41 bad ones, resulting on 41:6 or almost 7:1 dog. But lets not confuse the notion of "making your hand" with "winning the pot". These notions are the same ONLY when drawing to the absolute nuts. Realistically even when you MAKE your big pair its only going to win between half and 2/3 of the time, so you need a raw 12:1 or 14:1 pot odds to call. Your example also highlights another problem with over-cards: you really have only 3 outs since your T is already covered by T9.


Calling with over-cards has some merit: [1] When there is some reasonable chance your hand is actually "best" right now [2] When the opponents are not assertive and you may get to draw on the turn for free [3] You have some other draw such as a back-door flush draw [4] Your over-cards are unlikely covered by the opponent [5] You are already heads-up. [6] The pot is already big. [7] You play much better than the opponents on later betting rounds. [8] You are last to act [9] <What did I forget...>


If your situation does not offer at least 3 of the above, don't even think about it. 4 would be marginal.


- Louie

Zog,


You should probably not be sticking around with overcards with a pair on the board, but, IMO, you should have led with a bet on the hand described. The tight player probably has an ace, and if he is equally tight postflop (not necessarily the case) he will fold it to your bet with a pair of fives on board. Then, you just have to deal with a player on two random cards. Bet out, and see what happens from there.


Mike

Thanks all. You given me some things to think about. Basically it seems to come down to paying more attention to the grim mathmatical reality of overcards against a scary flop, regardless of how well I think I am reading cards. However, some of you suggest that if I was REALLY confident that I had put the players on the right hands then I should have bet rather than checked. That wouldn't have been possible in this situation, because I didn't get a read until the betting that happened after my check. Thanks again.