Distribution and Standard Deviation

[JohnWilliam]

If I chart a histograph of my winnings/losses for each session in online Texas Holdem, will I see a normal distribution in the long run? If so, for the sessions that I manage to win 1 standard deviation, are the odds against me winning any more money?

[DeucesUp]

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If I chart a histograph of my winnings/losses for each session in online Texas Holdem, will I see a normal distribution in the long run? If so, for the sessions that I manage to win 1 standard deviation, are the odds against me winning any more money?

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You'll have to normalize for the length of your sessions, but then it should be close to a normal distribution. This assumes game conditions don't change dramatically. You won't get a normal distribution if you combine results from, say 1/2 10-handed where you're 2 BB/hr winner long-term with 5/10 6-handed where you're a 1 BB/hr loser long-term.

Past results have no effect on future outcomes unless being up/down affect your or your opponents play somehow. So after you win 1 SD you're just as likely to continue to win or to start losing as you were when you started your session.

[JohnWilliam]

Thanks, nice clear explanation.

[chesspain]

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You'll have to normalize for the length of your sessions, but then it should be close to a normal distribution...

...Past results have no effect on future outcomes unless being up/down affect your or your opponents play somehow.

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Of course, this also assumes that Hero is no longer improving, which he hopes would not be the case.