Pot-Stuck at the Bus Stop – Using the System to Get Home

[ElSapo]

Pot-Stuck at the Bus Stop – Using Sklansky’s Tournament System to Get Home

I live in Washington, D.C., and one reason I moved here was the mass transit system. The D.C. metro runs more or less efficiently, albeit not 24-hours. The busses are actually on schedule most days, and during rush hour you rarely wait more than a couple of minutes for either a train or bus.

But on the weekends, at night or during holidays, all that changes. Trains come more infrequently, and waiting for the bus can be a long affair. I live about a mile or so from the metro station I use, and take a quick bus to the station from my neighborhood every morning.

Tuesday night, after going out to dinner with an old friend, I take the metro back into D.C. and arrive about 12:45. It’s about 20 degrees out, I’m a mile from home, and I have no idea when the next bus will arrive. The prospect of walking the mile in this weather, up a lengthy hill, in the wind, is not pleasant. But I don’t know whether to wait for the bus, which could take half an hour, or walk, which will take about 20 minutes.

So I stood there like an idiot in the cold, not knowing whether to fold or raise, essentially. If the bus comes in about 18 minutes, the time to get home is the same as walking. Anything less than 18 minutes and the bus gets me on the couch with a beer and ESPN sooner than if I walked. Longer, and I can walk quicker.

Now, add in the cost (with a metro transfer it’s negligible), the fact that walking may keep me warmer, and I could probably use the exercise, and I’d say it’s almost exactly 50-50 on whether walking or bussing has more benefit.

The problem appears to be that in this situation, you can not –begin- to wait and then change your mind. Once I start waiting, I’m stuck – there’s no longer any value in walking. I’m pot-stuck, essentially. I can’t leave the bus stop because the time invested there seems to tip the scales; but I can’t know in advance whether the bus will come in 30 minutes or 60 seconds.

Is there some sort of game theory all-in v. folding system I can use to get home the fastest? Results in white…

<font color="white"> I waited. It came. But I got home and discovered I was out of beer. Bad beat.
</font>

[baggins]

Is there a way you can walk along the route the bus would take you, and then hop on if it comes at any reasonable point in your journey?

i'm not sure how that would fit the poker analogy, but...

[Barry]

It's called leaving yourself an out...

[Wake up CALL]

It appears you sat in the wrong game. You bought into the 4/8 (bus) when the 15/30 (taxi) was more suited to your goal. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[baggins]

right. i knew i was missing something. of course it was early when i woke up and logged on here.

you could also stack the deck, as it were, and just get a car. but its costly.

[RollaJ]

Guess you've never seen the parking signs in DC, it makes NY look like a walk in the park (not Central Park at night)

[Andy B]

I'd walk every time, but I like walking. Twenty degrees ain't cold, pansy. And how can you not have any beer in the fridge? I can't remember a time when I didn't have beer in the fridge.

[felson]

Game theory would only apply if there were a malicious bus dispatcher who was trying to make you freeze as long as possible. Then you could randomize your decision to prevent him from outwitting you (in this case, by flipping a fair coin). In the situation you describe, it doesn't matter what you do. Always walking home, or always taking the bus, or walking home 80% of the time all have the same EV.

[Beerfund]

[ QUOTE ]
one reason I moved here was the mass transit system

[/ QUOTE ]
funniest thing I've heard all day /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Wyrm2]

Wow! Having experience with the DC bus system, I'd have to say that waiting for a bus at 1AM on Wed. morning is extremely -EV.

[ElSapo]

It appears you sat in the wrong game. You bought into the 4/8 (bus) when the 15/30 (taxi) was more suited to your goal.

Limited bankroll. I'm trying to move up though. I could take a shot, but there's always the risk of going bust.

[ElSapo]

Twenty degrees ain't cold, pansy.

Twenty degrees is technically uninhabitable, where I'm from.

And how can you not have any beer in the fridge? I can't remember a time when I didn't have beer in the fridge.

This was an unforgivable error.

[James282]

Hey, you aren't pot stuck. Any time spent at the bus station is "sunk cost", not some sort of means of getting you pot stuck. Sunk cost occurs when a resource is spent but has no bearing on whether it is cost efficient to spend more or give up. In your case, if the bus isn't going to be there for 2 hours, and you wait for a half an hour, your correct decision is still to walk home.
-James

[serling]

Hi ElSapo --

I know the Metrorail stations close at about midnight, but couldn't you have gone back into the kiosk area to consult the group 1 hands/bus timetable and proceed accordingly?

Either way, though, you're out of beer.

--serling

[daveymck]

I hope the lack of beer didnt put you on tilt attacking the whiskey instead.

I suggest investing in Poker tracker this may help itentify patterns in allocation of bus hands, review your plays and you should be in a position to make a much better decision.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The prospect of walking the mile in this weather, up a lengthy hill, in the wind, is not pleasant.

As someone who has lived more than a half century in a place where it gets colder than DC, I can safely say that you'll be more comfortable walking that mile up a hill at a brisk pace than you will be standing and waiting for the bus for half that time.