Laying down AA on the flop

[PokerNoob]

Along the lines of the other AA discussion we're having:

Party Poker 2/4 (10 handed) Mixture of players. UTG seems a standard winning ABC player. EP1 is a rockish good player. The others are fish.

Hero has A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and is MP1

UTG limps, EP1 limps, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, EP1 calls

Flop(13 1/2 SB): 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif

BB checks, UTG bets, EP1 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, Button folds, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, EP1 coldcalls 2... I am almost positive somebody's got a made straight. That means I need runner runner somethings to win with a flush or boat. Yeah, its a pretty big pot and getting bigger, but.... Hero folds, CO calls, BB calls

Turn(13 3/4 BB): 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, UTG bets, EP1 calls, CO calls, BB calls

River(17 3/4 BB): K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB checks, UTG bets, EP1 calls, CO calls, BB folds

Results (in white): <font color="white">UTG had 76o(!) for the flopped straight, EP1 had 88 for the set. The caller had KJo, not a bad call actually, I guess, although I would have thought I was drawing for the split. </font>

Questions: 1) Can anybody else read UTG or EP1 for a straight? With a standard 2 outer getting 26:1, I would have gone on. 2)When do you chase real longshots to nut or near-nut hands? How good of pot odds do you need? N.B. one of my runner "somethings" that pairs the board for the boat, gives EP1 the quads. Do you ever lay down AA on the flop?

[Ric]

I think given all the action, I'd put someone on 2 pair or better, or at least that you're behind overall to win. Not sure if that's the right play though. All of EP1's calling seems fishy, and I think UTG's 3bet shows that he can also beat any pair. Tough fold though, I'm not quite sure if it would have been correct to stay in or not.

[Brian]

Hi PokerNoob,

Laying down AA on this Flop for 1 more bet is pretty disastrous I think. It is not unreasonable that UTG has a hand like T9, in which case folding would be absolutely terrible. At least call the Flop and see what the Turn card is and what sort of action it brings.

-Brian

[Illininate]

Folding to the 3-bet seems really bad. Even assuming someone has two pair or trips (players don't usually play their straights this fast at this level, all the raising and reraising seems more like someone afraid of the straight), you're getting somewhere around 25:1 pot odds for your call, so even if you plan on folding the turn if you don't hit an Ace, I think it has to be at least a call.

Reading the results, OK, I was wrong about not having the straight.. but I stand by my answer. Bad fold.

[brian0729]

I pretty much agree w/ Brian. Easy call.

[cjs]

I agree with the rest of the posters. Although you may be behind let them tell you that with a raise on the flop.

[PokerNoob]

The only reason I laid it down was my read on the players, I would never do this against the usual PP masses. They were both good enough that between them, somebody had a straight, although in retrospect set over set seems possible (I wonder which is more statistically likely). AA is ~50:1 against a made straight there.

However, I did revise my opinion of UTG after that limp. The game wasn't that loose. I was expecting one set and one Q high straight from a QJs ep limp. I wouldn't have read either one of them for two pair. As it turned out, my read was half wrong but still right. I got lucky that time.

[brian0729]

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason I laid it down was my read on the players, I would never do this against the usual PP masses. They were both good enough that between them, somebody had a straight. AA is ~50:1 against a made straight there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because you read them as decent players doesnt mean they flopped straights. If they are good there raises may not mean that at all. They could easy have an over pair, a set, an open end draw w/ overcards and maybe even some hands your ahead of and you have the odds to take the card. Take the card!! It sounds like your getting beat lately and its making you a little WT. Stop seeing monsters.

[umdpoker]

i like it. you are gonna put a lot of money into that pot to find out if you are right, and you have almost zero chance of beating a flopped straight. i made the mistake of capping a board yesterday with aa only to realize that there was a hard straight possible. of course after capping i had made the pot too big to fold. cost me a lot to find out what i knew was gonna happen anyways.the one thing i keep forgetting is that just because i won't call a preflop raise with 57 doesn't mean somebody else won't. not paying them off when they make their ridiculous hands is key to beating them. i do have a question though. doesn't it depend on how many people in hand wit you? when it happened to me, i had 2 raisers besides me and 2 more callers. i could not forsee seeing river cheaply, even though i called their raises anyways because i am attached by umbilical cord to aa. i really think at least in my case i should have folded. i forked over 8 bb to find out i was an idiot. isn't the whole point of 3-betting flop to find out where you are for half price? just a thought?

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason I laid it down was my read on the players, I would never do this against the usual PP masses.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you read one of the guys for the straight, then why in the world would you call? You did the right thing.

It is, however, a completely different issue if you are not sure of your read.

-ropey

[brian0729]

[ QUOTE ]
If you read one of the guys for the straight, then why in the world would you call? You did the right thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

No he did not, if either player showed me there cards and had the nut straight I would still call this flop.

[umdpoker]

you would really call this even with the chance that it will get capped? seems like you just gotta say bye bye to aces every once in a while to keep sanity intact

[brian0729]

Yes I would. I dont see this as that tough a decision. I dont think the CO or BB is going to come to life all of the sudden and raise. I expect them to call but not cap the flop. I pot is getting huge folding here for one bet with the odds you are getting is a disaster. At least thats the way I feel.

Our hero is getting 22:1 (or something very close) on his call alone. An A on the turn gives him 10 outs to the river. Also if the board pairs he even picks up two more outs for the river, which would make for interesting turn decisions.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
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If you read one of the guys for the straight, then why in the world would you call? You did the right thing.


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No he did not, if either player showed me there cards and had the nut straight I would still call this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

id lay it down. the odds of a runner FH/quads are pretty high. about 33 or 34-1. just under 3%. that's pretty slim. even with the pot this big. you're effective odds will be blasted.

you will lose lots chasing a runner FH in this situation. especially since you can be calling many bets on the turn. this is an easy laydown if you know the others have a flopped str8.

b