MrMatt
01-14-2004, 08:53 PM
The night before the 2003 WSOP, my first, I was sitting at the Golden Nugget casino bar. More numb with nervous anticipation than from the double JWB I was nursing, I was playing out various scenarios in my head: What to do with KK on the first hand in the BB if the SB open moves all-in; what to wear at the final table five days hence; etc. As I was thinking through these sorts of highly practical issues, a slick and somehow unsavory character of indeterminate age sat next to me and asked “you playing tomorrow?” As he wasn’t all that swishy in nature, I assumed he was a fellow poker player and recognized me as such.
But no, it was the Devil and he came to offer me a deal -- my first WSOP deal to be precise. He said that in exchange for my immortal soul (how original), he would see to it that on the last hand of every round I would get all-in before the flop with two red aces against the then tourney chip leader who would have two red 3s. My question is, if you make the wild leap that my soul still had some value at that point, was this a good deal? Specifically, what were my chances of actually winning the WSOP if I took this deal with the Devil? (I request that you choose one of the answers below quickly off the top of your head. Then do the relatively simple math to see how close your intuition was to reality.)
If on the last hand of every round I got all-in before the flop with AA against the then chip leader who had 33, my chances of winning the 2003 WSOP would be approximately:
1. 4 out of 5
2. 3 out of 5
3. one out of two
4. one out of three
5. one out of five
6. one out of ten
7. one out of 30
8. one out of 60
9. one out of 100
10. one out of 200
The math to figure this out should take about two minutes using a calculator. Keep in mind that there were 860 players, each started with 10,000 in chips, blinds started at 25-50 and approximately doubled every round with antes, and each round lasted two hours. Hint: you don’t need to be all that precise in your estimates of blinds and antes, hands per hour, etc. It won’t have much of an impact on the final result. Also, a safe bet is that under this scenario I would fold every hand except the last one of each round. And to keep the math simple, assume that all the chips are distributed evenly among the remaining players other than me and the chip leader and that we don’t get heads up until the last hand of the last round (these short-cuts don’t materially change the outcome).
How close was your first guess to the actual results? After going through this exercise, do you consider the WSOP harder or easier to win then you did before? Do you consider the level of skill required to win higher or lower than you did before?
But no, it was the Devil and he came to offer me a deal -- my first WSOP deal to be precise. He said that in exchange for my immortal soul (how original), he would see to it that on the last hand of every round I would get all-in before the flop with two red aces against the then tourney chip leader who would have two red 3s. My question is, if you make the wild leap that my soul still had some value at that point, was this a good deal? Specifically, what were my chances of actually winning the WSOP if I took this deal with the Devil? (I request that you choose one of the answers below quickly off the top of your head. Then do the relatively simple math to see how close your intuition was to reality.)
If on the last hand of every round I got all-in before the flop with AA against the then chip leader who had 33, my chances of winning the 2003 WSOP would be approximately:
1. 4 out of 5
2. 3 out of 5
3. one out of two
4. one out of three
5. one out of five
6. one out of ten
7. one out of 30
8. one out of 60
9. one out of 100
10. one out of 200
The math to figure this out should take about two minutes using a calculator. Keep in mind that there were 860 players, each started with 10,000 in chips, blinds started at 25-50 and approximately doubled every round with antes, and each round lasted two hours. Hint: you don’t need to be all that precise in your estimates of blinds and antes, hands per hour, etc. It won’t have much of an impact on the final result. Also, a safe bet is that under this scenario I would fold every hand except the last one of each round. And to keep the math simple, assume that all the chips are distributed evenly among the remaining players other than me and the chip leader and that we don’t get heads up until the last hand of the last round (these short-cuts don’t materially change the outcome).
How close was your first guess to the actual results? After going through this exercise, do you consider the WSOP harder or easier to win then you did before? Do you consider the level of skill required to win higher or lower than you did before?