Would you have called me?

[SpaceAce]

PartyPoker $25

I get AKs in early position. One limper to me and I make the maximum raise. I get two middle position cold-callers and we lose both blinds. The flop is 269, two hearts. OK, I'm not a big fan of this flop but both players check to me. I bet the pot (about $5). The first middle position player folds and the other thinks, thinks, thinks and calls the bet which is about 1/4 of her stack.

The turn and river are both Aces. My opponent turns up 88, no heart, and I take it down.

This hand is noteworthy to me for two reasons:
1) A genuine suckout is pretty rare for me.
2) I'm not convinced 88 should have called me. There's an overcard and a flush draw on the board. I raised pre-flop and bet the pot on the flop. I think if 88 was going to play this, she should have bet it herself instead of calling. Also, I was all-in. Her implied odds were zero. Unless she knew for a fact I had AK (what else would I raise big with pre-flop that she's ahead of?), she was fishing for a third 8 and there was no money left to extract from me. With two cards yet to come, 88 is not likely to look all that good by the river.

How do you guys and gals play this one in my opponent's shoes? Fold pre-flop? Raise pre-flop? Bet the flop? Assuming you've already checked, do you call my bet?

SpaceAce

[1800GAMBLER]

Ok. A thinking player here, puts you on either overcards or overpair, thanks to the low flop she doesn't hate her hand.

It's a tough call to make but say you raise AK AQ AJ AA KK QQ JJ TT it's 48:30 that she's leading, 5:3 getting 2:1 on her call, she should fold, but it's _very_ close.

You meantion implied odds, she doesn't want any implied odds, at the moment she has reserve implied odds, the extra money will be going in when you catch a ace or king. Her best situation here would be to have a stack less than pot sized and just call all in.

However, if she folds when she sees a king or an ace drop she wants to have a big as stack as possible to max her implied odds as you will have none.

'With two cards yet to come, 88 is not likely to look all that good by the river.'

That's also a bad way of looking at it. In this particular hand she got money in on the flop with the best of it. _In this particular hand_ you made the mistake by betting the flop. Of course though, betting the flop isn't really a mistake giving the huge range of hands they could hold here.

Preflop;

Calling sucks, stack isn't big enough for implied odds on flop an 8.

Raising sucks. Either going to win 1/3 of the time against AK AQ AJ or a big dog against a pair.

Folding is good.

Flop:

Calling is marginal as shown.

Raising, if she raises the min you should fold, but you probably wont for the min and then she has no idea where she is at and if she hates a king or ace dropping.

Raising all in EV:

48 times she takes $10. As you'll have overcards and fold.

30 times she loses $20 (her remaining stack), as you'll have an overpair and call.

That's a good example of extra money only going in when you are behind, but the need to protect your hand.

NET EV: 480 - 600 = -$120 over 78 hands.

All this is based on your preflop raising standards and folding AK to the raise. If you add 99 to your raising hands her EV is down. Add 99 and AT to your raising standard and her EV is up.

The whole post is an example of why a small stack NL is a very easy game for the people who buy in small.

[harboral]

The fact that you were all-in makes this an easy call for a low-limit game like you are playing. She is getting decent odds (she won't put you on a pair of nines) that you don't have AA,KK,QQ,JJ or TT - so if you made your bet preflop with AK or the like, she is happy - and can't get in any more trouble if she is wrong. (if I am playing, I call too - because I put you on AK and also I get to possibly win AND see your hand, it is worth the call to me)

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
'With two cards yet to come, 88 is not likely to look all that good by the river.'

That's also a bad way of looking at it. In this particular hand she got money in on the flop with the best of it. _In this particular hand_ you made the mistake by betting the flop. Of course though, betting the flop isn't really a mistake giving the huge range of hands they could hold here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mean to say her 88 isn't a good hand, but she is logically either a little bit ahead or massively behind. Does she really want to call my all-in with no hope whatsoever of outplaying me on a later street knowing that, at best, she's probably in a coin-flip situation?

Do you think my bet was a mistake? I didn't really think it was when I did it. I would expect to have seen more aggression with a big overpair pre-flop or a set post-flop. I would much prefer to just grab the pot right there. I felt I was doing the right thing by following through on my pre-flop aggression.

[ QUOTE ]

Folding is good.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I thought, too. After my big raise, she's really being optimistic to come in with 88.

[ QUOTE ]
Raising, if she raises the min you should fold, but you probably wont for the min and then she has no idea where she is at and if she hates a king or ace dropping.

[/ QUOTE ]

Had she bet the bare minimum ($.50), I would have stayed. If she had made any real move on the pot, I would have been gone like a puff of smoke.

[ QUOTE ]
All this is based on your preflop raising standards and folding AK to the raise. If you add 99 to your raising hands her EV is down. Add 99 and AT to your raising standard and her EV is up.


[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to make this exact point. 99 is not off the raising radar in these games. It depends on my position and how I feel about the other players but I would have raised 99 in this game.

[ QUOTE ]
The whole post is an example of why a small stack NL is a very easy game for the people who buy in small.

[/ QUOTE ]

My stack was small from taking a beating. Hers was pretty close to the $25 max buyin when the hand started.

SpaceAce

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you were all-in makes this an easy call for a low-limit game like you are playing. She is getting decent odds (she won't put you on a pair of nines) that you don't have AA,KK,QQ,JJ or TT - so if you made your bet preflop with AK or the like, she is happy - and can't get in any more trouble if she is wrong. (if I am playing, I call too - because I put you on AK and also I get to possibly win AND see your hand, it is worth the call to me)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a point, there. I do my best to create the image of a tight player but I'm not above raising on air and I would have played a set, an overpair or top pair here in the exact same way.

Would you really have called, though, or would you have bet? That's the difference. A free card is a lot more likely to hurt her than me. Right now, there's a good chance her eights are good so why check it around? There are only two realistic chances for her eights to improve but six for my overcards. Take the pot now.

SpaceAce

[1800GAMBLER]

Hey.

In a general, called preflop, missed the flop with AK, bet out isn't a mistake, 2/3 of the time they missed the flop so your bet is making money.

In this particular hand though your bet costed you money as you were behind. So by calling she has makes a +EV play and folding for her is a -EV play.

Here's where the importance of varying play comes in, if she only knows you may have from AA - 88 AK - AQ, then folding is her correct play even though she will have 32 times just folded the best hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Had she bet the bare minimum ($.50),

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop you bet $5, isn't the min $5 here? That would mean you'd have to call $5 into $15 getting 3:1 on just overcards.

[ QUOTE ]
or would you have bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting has the advantages of you take the pot when the player has AK AQ (more often than not) and only lose your pot sized bet when they raise AA KK QQ. All this goes to pot if you are in a game where AA KK will smoothcall and AK AQ will call.

Disadvantage of if he would bet AK AQ when checked to, but fold to a min bet. Risk less more reward, rarer.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop you bet $5, isn't the min $5 here? That would mean you'd have to call $5 into $15 getting 3:1 on just overcards.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I screwed up the positions when I typed that out. I was in the cutoff, she was two seats ahead of me. She had already limped for $.50 when I raised. They both checked to me on the flop. She would have been able to bet $.50 on the flop since it was checked to her.

So, player X was middle position, the main opponent was late position and I was cutoff. They limped to me, I raised pre-flop and knocked out everyone else then I bet the flop when it was checked to me.

Edit: Sorry about that. I must have mixed up two different hands when I started this thread.

SpaceAce

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

she is logically either a little bit ahead or massively behind.


[/ QUOTE ]

No. If she's ahead, she's well ahead. You have six outs and she has two redraws.

She is either well ahead or well behind. If she's ahead, she will have a good idea whether the turn card hurt her, too, although you could bluff with a Q.

I like her play postflop here. If she bets she loses her money when behind and wins nothing when ahead. If she checks, you might put your money in on a bluff; it's fairly likely from AK with a short stack, I would say. I guess you also have an aggressive image which makes this even better. If it gets checked through, well, she can probably tell if the turn hurt her, but there aren't so many cards that outdraw her, so it's a reasonably safe move.

Guy.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]


No. If she's ahead, she's well ahead. You have six outs and she has two redraws.



[/ QUOTE ]

If she puts me on overcards, she's barely ahead before the flop. After the flop, she's further ahead. If I'm on an overpair, she's in awful shape.

This all pivots on IF she's ahead which I can't see her being very sure of. I raised before the flop and I bet on the flop. True, I bet when it was checked around to me but that was her own fault. Now she has no clue where I am but it wouldn't be a stretch to put me on something better than eights.

SpaceAce

[1800GAMBLER]

Eh?

She's either well behind (to AA with 2 outs) or barely ahead (to AK AQ) with 6 outs against her.

Or have i missed something?

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
Eh?

She's either well behind (to AA with 2 outs) or barely ahead (to AK AQ) with 6 outs against her.

Or have i missed something?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he may have been referring to the fact that the flop missed me. If she's still ahead after the flop, she's pretty far ahead. Looking at the hand from start to finish, though, she's either a small favorite or a huge dog. That's the point I was making.

SpaceAce

[1800GAMBLER]

I'm looking at the hand from the flop too:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 6s 2d 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ah 875 88.38 115 11.62 0 0.00 0.884
8c 8d 115 11.62 875 88.38 0 0.00 0.116
</pre><hr />

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ah 237 23.94 753 76.06 0 0.00 0.239
8c 8d 753 76.06 237 23.94 0 0.00 0.761
</pre><hr />

That's actually closer than i thought.

[Guy McSucker]

I meant post-flop. The flop has clearly missed a "two big cards" type hand.

So, if she's ahead, she's about a 3-1 favourite, which counts as strong in my book. If behind, she's pretty much buried.

Preflop, hmmm, don't know about her call but it's probably not awful. The action is: SB, BB, limp, raise, call before it gets to the 88, so she'll probably get 3 or 4-1 on her money preflop. That's not a bad call, is it?

Guy.

[Ulysses]

Easy call on the flop. She's either way ahead or way behind and she's getting a nice overlay. Plus, she doesn't have to worry about what the next cards are since you're all-in. I think you're confusing your pre-flop v. post-flop odds here. A pair is a coinflip v. overcards pre-flop. Post-flop, a pair is a big favorite.

Pre-flop, depends on how much she had to call and what the other stacks were.

This is the second post I've read from you where you're playing a very short stack in PL/NL games. Unless you're specifically trying to work on short-stack strategy, I'd suggest either keeping your stack topped off or moving to a lower limit.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call on the flop. She's either way ahead or way behind and she's getting a nice overlay. Plus, she doesn't have to worry about what the next cards are since you're all-in. I think you're confusing your pre-flop v. post-flop odds here. A pair is a coinflip v. overcards pre-flop. Post-flop, a pair is a big favorite.

Pre-flop, depends on how much she had to call and what the other stacks were.

This is the second post I've read from you where you're playing a very short stack in PL/NL games. Unless you're specifically trying to work on short-stack strategy, I'd suggest either keeping your stack topped off or moving to a lower limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I went back and explained that I meant a coin flip from start to finish and I realize she is much further ahead after the flop. I made more comments on that, too, but I don't want to re-type them. You can have a look at my other replies to see my reasoning.

As for the short stacks, I don't generally buy in over and over every time I lose a dollar or two. It's not so much part of a master strategy as it is a matter of convenience. I find it easier to track my results without a bunch of small reloads. If I sit down and lose $12 on the first hand I play, I reload, but if I've just trickled away a few bucks I keep playing my current stack. The only times I get really short are when I don't plan to buy back in. I'd rather play that last $6 and see if I can turn it into something than just quit the game.

SpaceAce

[James282]

Jay, what you are missing is, while AK v. 88 is a coin flip preflop, if AK misses the flop, 88 is very far ahead. 88 would be more than happy to go all in against AK here.
-James