Odds question

Can someone who's a master of these things confirm my maths?


No-limit game (online, micro-blinds).

I have 9-10h and raise a couple of bucks in the cut-off after a limper or three.

Button raises another 10. One chap calls, and I call (button has over 200 bucks and is using his stack to raise almost every single hand).


Flop comes 6,6,10 all black.

Check, check, button goes all in for all his massive stack. I call with my remaining 50 bucks, I am sure he doesn't want a caller and has AQ or AK.


He has AJ of diamonds. Hits the jack on the turn and I lose.


I believe I was *at least* 75% favourite when the money went in post-flop, can someone confirm this?


Its driving me nuts, I only ever get all my money in with the best hand, yet keep losing to the 6,4, even 2 outers every time.

If this game is driving you nuts, why don't you play a limit game? Anyway, you are a big favorite(I really don't know how to calculate it), as he can only win by; 1)Having the turn/river come 6-6, 2) Having a A or J come without a 10; Good luck.

You are about a 75-25 favorite.

..why not play limit? Because I believe my edge is greater in pot and no-limit play. At the moment, the outdraws are hurting my, but I keep getting all the money in when I am a big favourite, so I am not going to stop playing.


Your response was wrong, my opponent could also win if the turn and river come a Queen and King, giving him a straight.

Assuming you know he has AJ, there are 45 cards left in the deck. He has 3 Aces and 3 Jacks that will help him so the last 2 cards must come from the remaining 39 cards for you to win. So there are 39*38 ways for two cards to come with neither being an A or J - also there are 6 ways to get runner runner Q's and 6 ways for runner runner K's, both of which you lose. So your winning percentage is (39*38 - 12)/(45*44) = 73.6% by my reckoning.