NFL play

[Wildbill]

I must love killing myself, I can't buy a football winner right now, but I keep trying!!!

I have money on the Pats to win the AFC at 3-1 so maybe I am a bit biased /images/graemlins/smile.gif Still I found one I do love...

Eagles +287 to win Superbowl at Pinnacle
I just don't get this one. I feel pretty damn confident the Eagles are going to win it. Forget their "off" game yesterday, somehow the coach that prepares his team well didn't get them ready off the layoff. This week I think you see a bigtime effort from the best team. Whether Davis plays or not won't be a big difference, with a bum hamstring he won't be a bruising physical runner and Foster won't do that either. To beat the Eagles you need a big back that goes right up the middle and then a play-action game that really lights it up. I don't think the Panthers can do that to them this week and I certainly don't think the Pats or Colts with their 5-10 yard passes will get done either. Granted the Colts have a far better shot with James softening up the D, but they haven't a chance at stopping a running QB like McNabb. Simply put I think the Eagles are the best team coming off a survival game against exactly the team they didn't want to face. It only should get easier now and the remaining matchups all look favorable to me. Getting almost 3-1 looks good to me.

As a backup, I think the NFC +175 is a good value as well. Not only do I like the Eagles to get it done if they get there, I think Carolina if they can survive would be a very worthy team as well with nice matchups as well, especially if they get 2 weeks off to rest Davis. In any case I am surprised to see such a large differential, I think this line should be slightly favoring the NFC.

[David Steele]

I would be kind of worried that Carolina pulls off the win so your NFC bet seems better. For me anyway, since I already grabbed Carolina +4.5. I think that game should be pretty close with Carolina having a good shot to at least cover.

D.

[anatta]

Why are you down on New England or Indy to beat the NFC? New England would be big favorite over Philly (14 in a row, experience, beat Philly already...). Big favorite to win, that is, point spread would be fairly close given NE wins ugly.

Indy would enter with the hottest QB since forever.

[craig r]

Are you going to take the moneyline on IND? I don't think i would in the situation, but I don't know the "correct" reasoning of why or why not to. I personally like NE -3, but was just wondering the right play if you had a 3-1 on the pats to win the AFC.

craig r

[Wildbill]

Why should I bet the money line? Well if you haven't read here long you probably haven't read that I am among the biggest opponents around of hedging. I just think it is plain dumb unless the money involved really means a lot to you. If you have properly sized your bet and have proper bankroll it never makes sense to hedge, that is unless you really like the other side and think the bet has merit on its own. If a player has say a 100-1 ticket and only one game left to win, then maybe I could see some value in hedging simply because the effect on the bankroll and future betting will be so big that you change the whole equation of what a win or loss is worth. Don't make these hedge bets just to guarantee a win though. It is essentially saying I am willing to bet on something I don't think has value and betting on it because I don't have sufficient money just to let the bet stand on its own. Any other explanation won't do. I know a lot of people disagree, but let them.

Bottom line is all bets must be made on their own merits. If you find yourself hedging much then you probably are betting too conservatively or you are underbankrolled.

[Wildbill]

I don't think any team is that much better than anyone else right now. I just stated my case, matchups are in my opinion favorable to both NFC teams. The fact is that even though they were far from the best team, the Packers were the toughest matchup either the Eagles or the Panthers could face. Their offense and defense matches up well with both teams. Both AFC teams I don't think can handle well the controlled aggressive defenses the NFC teams have.

If I had to guess these would be the lines in the SB, of course subject to the way the games play out:

NE - 3.5 over PHL
NE -6.5 over CAR
PHL -2.5 over IND
IND -2 over CAR

As for the Pats winning streak, I agree they deserve respect. But I also think looking at it you can see why it doesn't translate into big points. They won the Bills game by 31 in a revenge situation against a team that didn't care. After that it was 14 points over Jax and a whole slew of games (7 to be exact) decided by 7 points or less. The Eagles in their run of wins (with the one loss) had a lot of impressive wins at home and on the road. People won't line up to bet the Pats because of that fact.