Top pair becomes second pair becomes third pair.

[SpaceAce]

I get J9o in the big blind. There are a few limpers and I check. The flop is 579, all diamonds. Hm, I don't love this flop but I don't hate it, either. No point pussyfooting around, so I make a pot-sized bet. I get one caller. The turn is the King of hearts. I bet about 1/2 the pot and my opponent calls. The river is the Queen of hearts.

The board is now
[ 5d 7d 9d Kh Qh ]

By my count, there are two overcards, one possible flush, one unlikely straight (68) and one not-all-that-unlikely straight (TJ). My opponent has called me down this far. I think maybe he's looking for another diamond or a card to complete his low straight but he could also be playing a better nine, a made straight that fears the flush, a King, etc. What do I do?









Results:
<font color="white">
I'm not proud of this but I checked. My opponent also checked; he had pocket sixes with the six of diamonds. My Jacks were good.
</font>



What would you have put him on? When no obvious draws hit on the river, should I have made a big bet to try and buy the pot in case he had a better nine? I figured if he was on a weak King or Queen, he probably wouldn't release it after coming this far. Third pair on that board seemed like an awfully precarious place to shove in a bunch of money.

SpaceAce

[gavrilo]

This is a bad hand. You can't be happy about him calling you. He could already have a made hand, say a flush, and thinks you'll fold if he raises, he could have better Nine.
Could have the Queen or King of Diamonds.
Can't think of many hands you are ahead of here. Maybe the lone A of diamonds and off chance of the Jack of diamonds.

I would check the river here and fold to a bet.

[gavrilo]

Well after looking at the results, I suppose that's a hand you're ahead of too.
Curious, what do you do if he bets?

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
Well after looking at the results, I suppose that's a hand you're ahead of too.
Curious, what do you do if he bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's a reasonable bet, I fold. If he bets something weak like $1, I'm calling it. I can't see any value in raising no matter how weak the bet is.

Thanks for the reply.

SpaceAce

[1800GAMBLER]

Half of my losing streak has been due to this. Of course you check the river and fold to a bet, but with aggressive players this is usually a problem. So whenever i had a hand that feared lots of cards out of position i overbet the pot in the hopes of taking it down.

Yes, this doesn't allow hands to make a mistake but those hands aren't making a mistake if i fear half the deck and if they bet them i have to fold.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
Half of my losing streak has been due to this. Of course you check the river and fold to a bet, but with aggressive players this is usually a problem. So whenever i had a hand that feared lots of cards out of position i overbet the pot in the hopes of taking it down.

Yes, this doesn't allow hands to make a mistake but those hands aren't making a mistake if i fear half the deck and if they bet them i have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was a pot limit game, so overbetting the pot is out of the question. As you said, with aggressive players checking the river presents a problem but I was blessed with a passive opponent, here.

SpaceAce

[muzungu]

SpaceAce, Jay, etc...

This dilemma (top pair in the blinds with marginal kicker and ugly board) is something I've been thinking about for a while. Do you really think betting out is a +EV move here? I know I play super-tight at times, but this just seems like a money-loser to me. If any of the limpers call, any diamond, 6, 8, T, Q, K, A could possibly beat you. As the others have said, that's like half the deck. You'll probably fold to any raise on any street, and with 3 betting rounds, you'll either have to slow down at some point (showing possible weakness, thus exposing yourself to a potential bluff) or put in a lot of cash. I'm inclined to ignore the fact that I'm probably ahead for now and check/fold here. I'd probably bet out if it's checked around and the turn is a total blank, but I can think of better places to invest my $.

Just my 2 c worth.

-muz

[1800GAMBLER]

In position i have no doubt betting these marginal kickers when you can't give a free card (not a A or K pair etc) is +EV.

Out of position will become very game dependant, but against an aggressive player who will lower your profit by adding bluffing to his game this could be close. In limit this wouldn't be a problem and this is a game difference in NL.

1. You should be betting the pot, which increases your neeeded success rate of the bet, as compared to the bet/pot size of limit.

2. A bet, again due to bet/pot ratio can throw you off your hand, were as in limit you can easily call down.

Number 2 shows the importance of position in NL.

The interesting question is, should you raise AQ UTG even if you know your opponents will play worse hands. i.e. will the advantage of position be good enough for them to make up for their preflop mistake?

[SpaceAce]

LOL, I spent two minutes reading and rereading your post thinking, "AQ? Under the gun? I did make a pot-sized bet," before I realized your reply was aimed at someon else.

SpaceAce