do you lay this down

[bazooka_joe]

5-10 at party...average to above average LAG

UTG limps, another EP limps, LP raises and I three bet with pocket aces...blinds fold, UTG folds...two callers..

5.5 BB in pot

flop comes 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

EP bets, LP folds, I raise...call...

turn Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Instabet from EP...

I thought for a bit then decided size of the pot dictated calling him down.....but in thinking about it, the pot is 7.5 BB and I have to put in two and I'm about 90 percent sure he's got the flush, especially with the instabet...
so I guess I answered my own question and should have folded..

be greatly interested in any comments...

thanks...

[bicyclekick]

I dunno, it's a tough muck I say. He might just be trying to represent it.

I'd call him down, but that's me.

[slavic]

What color (colour) are your aces and what do we know of the EP and what does he think of you? You are the button correct?

Not knowing anything about the player at this point I think I'd raise and see what happens. A made flush should check raise, if you raise and he 3 bets I think you can pitch it. Now this changes if you hold the diamond Ace. Then you just call.

[BottlesOf]

If you have A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif , I raise here. If not, I either call or raise--I do not fold. He could have a Queen, or a high diamond.

Are you really 90% sure he has a made flush? With an above avg. LAG table?

[bazooka_joe]

He turned over A J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

You know, that's an interesting question,,,,"am I really 90 percent sure?"...this has always been a troubling concept to me...I mean...how do you really know how sure you are...

I think more accurately, I've probably got certain levels of gut feelings...maybe three of them, like the first is I think he probably has "X" but wouldn't be at all surprised if he didn't...the second is I think he has *X* and would be surprised if he didn't...and the third is I think he has "X" and would be very surprised if he didn't..I would say I had the second one..which is what...75 percent maybe?..the first being 55 and the last being 90 plus..

I dunno, this is getting kinda metaphysical and unfortunately I'm just not that bright..

On a side note, I will say that I have found the instabet, insta-raise action a pretty reliable tell in these situations.. exceptions of course, but it's been a pretty useful tool..

[Taxman]

Now generally speaking, barring a 4th diamond appearing, I would usually call the hand down, but I'm also a strong believer that for a decent/improving player, trusting your reads is important even if they're wrong. Confidence in your ability matters. If you were wrong you consider why (and you should also do this even if you're right). This will allow you to continually improve your ability to read your opponents. I consider hand reading one of the weaker aspects of my game, but by continually forcing myself to concentrate and respect my reads, I think I am improving. If you are barely a break even or losing player then you probably should focus more on the mechanics of your game, but if you feel like you are improving, you should develop confidence in your reads. Of course, even discounting tells, this can be a little more difficult online (at least I assume, since I am a B&M player). Still if you feel like you REALLY are 90% sure, then respect your read. JMHO.