HPFAP, page 77

On page 77 of my HPFAP, hypothetical player ("You") has Td9d. Flop comes 8d4s2c. You bet, are raised, and call the raise. Turn is Jd. HPFAP says the correct action is to check-raise.


I just can't see that this is correct. If your goal is to make your opponent fold, wouldn't a simple bet be more effective? I really almost never see people folding the turn to a raise after they've bet. And since you're not a favorite to win the pot, and your opponent has showed strength, I would think checking and calling would be the best play. Can someone explain to me what I'm missing, and why check-raising is desirable here?

You don't need to be a favorite to win the pot. Your play can be profitable because you now may have two ways to win. First your opponent may fold some of the time, and when he doesn't you still have a fair number of outs. It is these two probabilities together that produce the positive expectation.

If you're pretty sure your opponent won't fold here, the play becomes incorrect, correct?

There is yet another reason for making this play, and that is that even if the opponent does not fold on the Turn, and even if you do not make your hand, the chance that a river bet will win the pot for you may be greater due to the strength you showed on the Turn. This is especially true if your opponent is the type who might fold an 8 without improvement in this spot, or who might now be more likely to now fold two overcards (say a good Ace). If you get someone holding an Ace here to fold who otherwise might have been more likely to call you on suspicion, you have have accomplished a lot.

"If your goal is to make your opponent fold, wouldm't a simple bet be more effective?"


No, not at all. In middle limit games, a check-raise on fourth is a very powerful move and frequently denotes a strong hand. How likely your opponent is to fold is a function of what he has, how he assesses his winning chances when he is behind, what he thinks of you, the pot size, and so forth. It is quite common for a player to fold on fourth when check-raised even in a heads-up situation. The guy making the check-raise is now committing significant money to the pot and is representing a much stronger hand than someone who merely checks and calls. Furthermore, the bettor has to worry that if he calls now he will be looking at calling a river bet as well thereby committing himself to calling two big double bets to see the hand through.