Another Turn Fold

[arfsananto]

Another hand where I folded the turn and not sure if I should have.

Stars, .05/.10, 10 players. No specific player reads, but for the few hands that I've been at this table, there has been -no preflop raises, very little post flop raising
-4-5 (or more) see each flop
-2-3 (at least) to each showdown

Hero is MP2 with K /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG calls, EP1, EP2 fold, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3,CO, and Button call, BB checks, SB completes. One big happy family to the flop.

Flop
3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif

BB, SB, UTG check; MP1 bets, Hero raises (Mainly because I may have the best hand; and if I don't, now is the time to find out), MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls all-in, SB & UTG fold. MP1 3-bets, Hero calls, MP3 and CO call.

Turn 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

MP1 bets, I fold.

My thinking here is: a. He told me with his flop reraise that he could beat top pair. b. I didn't improve on the turn. c. I have to improve to beat him, and he has just as much chance to improve on the river as I do.
So I folded.
Results below
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River was 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, MP1 showed K /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Saborion]

I too sure would`ve loved to fold there, but I`ve been told I fold too much. Let`s get MK here and get his opinion on this matter.

[crockpot]

man, stars .05/.10 is only 40-50%/flop? that place is a breeding ground for tightness.

this is an okay hand in a loose-passive game, so the preflop call is fine. in most games, however, you should fold it unless it's an unraised pot and you're in very late position.

i think you played the hand well from then on. on the flop you are certainly beaten when reraised, but you have odds to catch a nine, and a king may be an out.

i question your "he has just as much chance of improving as i do" logic, even though the turn fold was correct. although you must factor in your oppponent's chances of improving to beat you in most hands, but this is not really the case when you suspect you are beaten anyway, unless you meant it in a "if i AM ahead, he may draw out on ME" sense.

[arfsananto]

Thanks for the input, Saborion. That was what I was feeling when I posted it.

Crockpot, what I meant was, I'm assuming that to win, I have to improve, and he has to not improve; (I'm thinking of the hand as effectively headsup here), and he is just as likely to improve as me, therefore the possible outcomes are: we both improve; he does but I don't; I do but he doesn't... I lose in 2 of the 3. Is this the right way to figure it?

Thanks for the input.

[crockpot]

yes and no. your analysis is good for situations where you aren't sure if you have the best hand. in cases where you are sure you are beaten (and by that i mean sure enough to fold to the river bet if you don't improve), you should only consider:

- the chances you will improve
- the chances that if you improve, he will improve more

so you're close to the correct answer, it just doesn't matter whether he improves any more when you don't. here, this is important, as you correctly realized a king may not be an out for you.

[arfsananto]

I see; thats an important distinction. Thanks alot

[Ed Miller]

My thinking here is: a. He told me with his flop reraise that he could beat top pair. b. I didn't improve on the turn. c. I have to improve to beat him, and he has just as much chance to improve on the river as I do.
So I folded.

Notice that none of these reasons included the pot size. They are all true if the pot has $1 million in it. Would you fold then?

You folded a nine outter getting 12-to-1. Do you think it was a good fold?

I have to improve to beat him, and he has just as much chance to improve on the river as I do.

BTW, what does this mean? This is not stud... you both get the same river card. If you are behind, who cares how likely he is to improve?

[Ed Miller]

If the turn card had been a ten instead of a five, I think folding is certainly wrong. Would you have noticed this subtle difference and adjusted your action accordingly?

I'm guessing from your reasons for folding that you would not have.

[Brian462]

I agree with all of your logic and especially that the pot size needs to be taken in to consideration in ALL decisions.

However, I still would have folded in his position because there are enough instances where you are either drawing slim or dead. The exception would be if I thought my opponent was overaggressive to the point that my hand still has a chance to be good.

I'd be interested to hear more on this subject.

[bisonbison]

if the turn was a T instead of a 5...

I can't follow what you're getting at, but I'll bite: If the T pairs, it's a higher two pair than any one his opponent has?

Unless it's kicker related, I don't see any way it can help Hero's hand.

[Brian462]

My guess is that when your opponent is on K8 you have more outs on the river where as pairing the 5 wouldn't help.

[Ed Miller]

I can't follow what you're getting at, but I'll bite: If the T pairs, it's a higher two pair than any one his opponent has?

A ten gives you three more outs to beat K8. An even bigger card like a queen can give you chopping outs against KT or KJ if one of the low cards pairs on the river. There is a small downside, though.. if your opponent has K3, then an eight on the turn gives you a chop instead of a win when the turn card is bigger than your nine.

[Ed Miller]

For the record, I think this decision is reasonably close. You look to be in pretty big trouble, but the pot is also pretty big too.

My problem was that none of the reasons our hero gave as to why he folded should convince anyone to fold. You guys need to get used to thinking, "I have Z outs, and I am getting X-to-1 from the pot," on every call-or-fold decision! If you haven't considered the size of the pot, there is no way you can come to an informed decision.

[arfsananto]

Majorkong, First let me say thanks. Over the past few days I have shown down (and won more than lost) a few hands that I would have folded before. And I agree that pot size should always be a factor in decisions (and discussed in posts). Actually, I did think about the size of the pot here. But unfortunately, it was more along the lines of "Man, the pot is big...but (for the reasons I gave) I gotta fold", than " I have x outs, the pot is giving X:1" and still making a considered decision to fold.

Thanks for lots of good input from everyone

Adrian

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
If the turn card had been a ten instead of a five, I think folding is certainly wrong. Would you have noticed this subtle difference and adjusted your action accordingly?

I'm guessing from your reasons for folding that you would not have.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll bite.

I have absolutely no idea why a ten landing on the turn affects this hand. -

Does it mean that I count a Ten as an out because his bottom pair is counterfieted?

[Saborion]

I assume you mean when the river card is bigger than a nine?

[Ed Miller]

I actually meant when an eight comes on the river, not on the turn.