Confusion on using odds to justify a call with 2 cards to come.

[Warik]

So, let's say there's 10BB in the pot after the turn, T4Q6 on the board and I have KJ. So, I have an OESD... a 9 gives me a 9-K straight, an ace gives me a T-A straight. Assume a rainbow board.

One of two cards not in my hand and not on the board = 8 outs. 46 unseen cards, 8 of which help me = 38:8 = 4.75:1 (right?)

So if it's going to cost me 1BB to see the river, I'm getting 10:1 pot odds on a 4.75:1 shot = call or probably even bet.

Simple enough.... if one card is left and pot odds > odds against me making my hand (assuming my hand is likely to win of course), then I am justified in betting or calling (maybe betting, definitely calling).

But what's the deal after the flop when there are 2 cards to come?

Example... suppose after the flop we have $16 in the pot and I am looking at a gutshot straight draw.

This gives me 4 outs with 2 cards to come... let's say I need a jack.

P(hitting the gutshot) = 1 - P(no jacks in the next two cards)

1 - [(43/47) * (42/46)] = 1 - (1806/2162) = 1 - .8353376 = 0.1646624

(1 - 0.1646624) / 0.1646624 = ~5.1:1

Now if we're playing $3/$6, it's going to cost me $3 to see the next card and there's $16 in the pot. 16/3 = 5.333:1 > 5.1:1

So... does that mean that I want to see the next card in this case, even though I KNOW there won't $6 x 11 = $66 in the pot before the river to justify a turn call for an 11:1 shot (which is what a gutshot is with one card to come).

So if I know I have the right odds for a 5.1:1 shot on the flop, but know I won't have it on the turn, am I supposed to always fold here? When is it correct to go for a gutshot straight draw?

Or better yet... should I just completely ignore the odds for something happening within the next 2 cards and just focus on the pot odds. vs odds against me for the next card to come?

Thanks

[pudley4]

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Or better yet... should I just completely ignore the odds for something happening within the next 2 cards and just focus on the pot odds. vs odds against me for the next card to come?

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In general, if you are deciding whether to call a bet, then yes, look only at the next card. In your example, you are only getting 5.3-1 on a 11-1 gutshot, so you would not even call the flop bet. However, if it were heads-up and you were getting 12-1, you would call the flop, even though you know you won't bet getting the correct 11-1 on the turn.

If you are deciding whether to raise a draw for value (flush draw, OESD), then you can look at the odds of hitting within the next 2 cards. (Notice that in this situation, you've already looked at the odds of hitting by the next card and determined that you have favorable pot odds to continue).

[Jezebel]

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Now if we're playing $3/$6, it's going to cost me $3 to see the next card and there's $16 in the pot. 16/3 = 5.333:1 > 5.1:1


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If you are going to use the "2 cards to come odds" then you are going to have to figure how much it is going to cost you to see 2 more cards. It is likely going to cost you at least $3 on the flop and $6 on the turn. So your effective pot odds would be 22/9 = 2.44:1 Clearly below the 5.1 required odds, so you would fold according to effective odds.


However, it is rarely correct to figure your chances of improving by using effective odds. The problem with using effective odds is that it always assumes you will be going to the river with the hand. Many hands such as gutshots, middle pair, etc. will have odds on the flop to see the turn, but will have to be tossed if they don't improve on the turn. However, many times it is still correct to see the turn with these hands. Effective odds will dictate a fold for these hands even when it is correct to see the turn.


On the flop you should calculate your odds of making your hand on the turn and then add implied odds. So in your gutshot example you would figure you are an 11:1 dog to improve on the turn. So it would seem that the pot would need $33 in it to make calling correct. However, if you do hit your gutshot on the turn you will collect extra bets from your opponent on both the turn and possibly the river. If the pot has $16 in it right now, then you need to figure if you can extract $17 from your opponent(s) on the turn and river if you hit. So to make your call on the flop correct, you will need your opponent to pay you off at least 3 BB (more precisely $17) between the turn and river to justify your flop call. Whether you can get 3 BB out of your opponent is very opponent specific. You can imply more odds against an aggressive opponent than you can a total rock for obvious reasons.

[Warik]

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Clearly below the 5.1 required odds, so you would fold according to effective odds.

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Makes sense.

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Effective odds will dictate a fold for these hands even when it is correct to see the turn.

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Also makes sense. I understand.

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So to make your call on the flop correct, you will need your opponent to pay you off at least 3 BB (more precisely $17) between the turn and river to justify your flop call.

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Ah-ha! Hence the reason why draws where the odds are pretty stacked against me making my hand are ones that I only want to go for against multiple opponents (3-4) because of the increased likelihood of additional BBs going into the pot. Heads up or against 2 opponents there are fewer people that I need to beat, but also fewer BBs in the pot to justify me risking more of my stack to try - right?

Thanks!

[Bozeman]

"So if it's going to cost me 1BB to see the river, I'm getting 10:1 pot odds on a 4.75:1 shot = call or probably even bet.

Simple enough.... if one card is left and pot odds > odds against me making my hand (assuming my hand is likely to win of course), then I am justified in betting or calling (maybe betting, definitely calling)."

Just because you are getting odds to call a bet doesn't mean you should make a bet. To evaluate the +EV of a bet, you need to evaluate the odds in terms of new money going into the pot, not pot odds. If you are the underdog, you would like as little of your money to go into the pot as possible until you are ahead.

There are, however, several important exceptions to this rule: there will be enough callers to give you +EV on this bet alone (say there will be 5 callers of your turn bet when you are 4.11:1 against to win); you have additional equity form possible folds (semibluff or second best hand bet); you will save money on later streets ("free" card raise/bet); and possibly others. Still, you should have a general tendency to call/check when you are behind (but have odds) and raise/bet when you are ahead (even if they have odds to call).

Craig

[PokerSlut]

I would like to point out a very important exception to this rule, which is when the additional bet will either put you all-in, or put your opponent all-in (in a heads-up situation). The reason being that you are guaranteed to see the river in an all-in situation, so you should figure the odds with all the cards remaining instead of just the next card.

Sklansky has a very good section about this particular subject in his tournament poker book.

[DeucesUp]

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Ah-ha! Hence the reason why draws where the odds are pretty stacked against me making my hand are ones that I only want to go for against multiple opponents (3-4) because of the increased likelihood of additional BBs going into the pot. Heads up or against 2 opponents there are fewer people that I need to beat, but also fewer BBs in the pot to justify me risking more of my stack to try - right?



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This is true, however just to further complicate things, there's an important caveat to this: With multiple players in the pot, you may have to pay more than a single bet on each street to see the next card. For example, what might be a clear call if you "close the action" on the flop would be a clear fold if there are likely raisers behind you. A very common example is when a preflop raiser is on your left and a player on your right bets into him on the flop. You're quite likely to have the pre-flop raiser to raise (even if he didn't hit, he may try to get a free card) and its not unlikely that the player on right will 3-bet (he probably has a decent hand to bet into a pre-flop raiser). As usual knowing your opponents and evaluating the "texture" of the flop are important here.

This can be a very expensive mistake if you get caught paying multiple bets in a situation which warranted a call only for a single bet.