Baseball Hall of Fame Election

[B-Man]

Congratulations to Eck and Molitor. Both were clearly deserving. The person happiest about Molitor's election, other than Molitor, is probably Edgar Martinez, because if Molitor can make it as (primarily) a DH, Edgar Martinez (who has been almost exclusively a DH) has got to be a lock for the HOF someday--he's a far better hitter than Molitor, and now there is a precedent for a DH being elected.

Other thoughts:

1. I can't believe Ryne Sandberg hasn't been elected. He did see a big jump in his vote totals this year, so I suspect he'll get in at some point.

2. It looks like Jim Rice is never going to make it. He's a borderline candidate that I had hoped would make it, but the best portion of his career was just a little too short. If he had had one or two more good years, I think he'd be in.

3. The three people who voted for Jim Eisenreich should have their voting priviliges permanently revoked. This guy was slightly better than average; he's not even close to Hall of Fame caliber, and I can't imagine what those 3 voters were thinking. It's admirable that he overcame his illness to become a solid major league player, but that doesn't make you a Hall of Famer.

4. Pete Rose is duplicitous pond scum, and I hope he NEVER is allowed back in baseball. If Selig does the expected and does let him back in, I hope the writers do not vote him into the HOF. He broke baseball's cardinal rule, he knew the consequence was a lifetime ban, he voluntarily accepted the lifetime ban, and then he lied for 14 years. The man is not contrite in the slightest; why should anyone feel sorry for him?

[HDPM]

Scenario I heard on the sports talk channels today. Rose is let back in. Reds or some other team hire him. They get a bunch of publicity and maybe sell tickets or whatever. Maybe he is hired as manager, maybe as something else. Here's a question nobody asked. But I will ask. Do Reds games (or other team he is with) go on the line? Would you as a book take action on games he is connected to?

The answer to that may be the answer to whether he should be reinstated.

[Sooga]

[ QUOTE ]
Congratulations to Eck and Molitor. Both were clearly deserving. The person happiest about Molitor's election, other than Molitor, is probably Edgar Martinez, because if Molitor can make it as (primarily) a DH, Edgar Martinez (who has been almost exclusively a DH) has got to be a lock for the HOF someday--he's a far better hitter than Molitor, and now there is a precedent for a DH being elected.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely disagree. Not that Edgar Martinez is a great hitter, but that if Molitor gets in, then Edgar should get in. Molitor was not a career DH. He started in the MLB when he was 21, and played pretty much every position in the infield (primarily 3b) until he hit his mid 30's, then he DH'd for several more years. There is no doubt that DH'ing prolonged his career, but he spent almost twice as long as a position player than a DH.

Martinez, on the other hand, did not have a full season until he was 27, and by the time he was 32 he was DH'ing full time. His hitting stats are obviously superior to Molitor's, but Molitor was a very good hitter for a longer period.

On top of all that, Molitor was one of the greatest all-around hitters in baseball. .306 lifetime average, 600+ doubles, 100+ triples, 200+ homers, and did you know he stole 500+ career bases? Oh, and the man had 3319 hits too.

Edgar meanwhile, other than his .315/.423/.525 career numbers, really doesn't have any numbers that jump out at you.

Now do NOT get me wrong. I am not at all saying Edgar is not a HOFer. But I absolutely disagree with the 'If Molitor gets in, Edgar gets in' argument.

[B-Man]

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There is no doubt that DH'ing prolonged his career, but he spent almost twice as long as a position player than a DH.

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It looks like he played 1,495 games at a position (including 197 at 1B) and 1,174 as a DH. After reviewing his fielding stats, my use of the word "primarily" may have been misleading, but your statistics are off as well, at least in terms of games played, which to me is a lot more important than years--one of the reasons he spent so much time at DH was that he was very injury prone.

[ QUOTE ]
Edgar meanwhile, other than his .315/.423/.525 career numbers, really doesn't have any numbers that jump out at you.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's funny. That's like saying, "Mark McGwire, other than his 583 home runs and .588 sluging percentage, doesn't have any numbers that jump out at you." Edgar's numbers are outstanding--he's got a better average than Molitor, and his OPS is a whopping 131 points higher. Edgar is 25th all time in OPS, 33rd in OPS+. Despite playing in 770 fewer games than Molitor, he's got more home runs, and should end up very close to Molitor in RBIs, if not surpass him.

Molitor was a great player... but he wasn't nearly as great a hitter as Edgar Martinez. I think Molitor has greatly helped pave the way for Edgar to go into the Hall--that was my real point.

[Sooga]

[ QUOTE ]

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Edgar meanwhile, other than his .315/.423/.525 career numbers, really doesn't have any numbers that jump out at you.

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That's funny. That's like saying, "Mark McGwire, other than his 583 home runs and .588 sluging percentage, doesn't have any numbers that jump out at you." Edgar's numbers are outstanding--he's got a better average than Molitor, and his OPS is a whopping 131 points higher. Edgar is 25th all time in OPS, 33rd in OPS+. Despite playing in 770 fewer games than Molitor, he's got more home runs, and should end up very close to Molitor in RBIs, if not surpass him.

Molitor was a great player... but he wasn't nearly as great a hitter as Edgar Martinez. I think Molitor has greatly helped pave the way for Edgar to go into the Hall--that was my real point.


[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. 583 home runs is 583 home runs. Doesn't matter if you hit that in 5 years or 20 years. If you hit 583 home runs, you're pretty sure to be in the hall of fame. A batting/on base/slugging average means nothing unless it's put into context. Martinez hit .315/.423/.525 in around 8000 PA's. Molitor hit .306/.369/.448 in around 12000 PA's. And, like you said, Molitor's played around 1500 games at a position, 1100 games at DH. Martinez, meanwhile has played 1200 games at DH, and only 600 as a position player.

On top of all this, Martinez produced most of his great seasons during the offensive boom of the mid 90's. Edgar Martinez is a DH, plain and simple. Molitor was a position player who happened to DH later in his career.

And MY point is that Molitor shouldn't have paved the way for Edgar. Molitor's DH numbers are a supplement to his career numbers, Edgar's DH numbers ARE his whole career.

[Mahoney]

I live in Cincinnati and I'm a big Reds fan. People absolutly love Rose here, but I think his admitting that he bet on baseball has hurt him tremendously in the eyes of the local fans. So many people here stood by Rose and supported him when he claimed he didn't bet on baseball, that they now feel like schmucks. Even though everyone knew he was probally lying, they were willing to support Rose. Basically people thought "if he said he didn't bet on baseball, then by god I believe him."
I don't know if most realize this or not but Rose was born and raised here in Cincinnati on the Westside of town ,and Almost every Cincinnatian has had a Pete Rose encounter at one time or another in their life, and generally they were considered good meetings. Pete has always come across as nice likeable guy (Johnny Bench on the other hand is a jerk, but I digress), which only made it easier for people to believe or want to believe he didn't bet on baseball.

But with all that said, Pete Rose should never have anything to do with MLB. I hope the Reds never hire him. The worse thing that would happen if he was ever hired ,as the Reds manager, would be everytime a pitcher got pulled, a pinch hitter wasn't used, or a line-up was changed - people would say "He must have money on the game." The constant second guessing would hurt Rose, the Reds, and MLB.

Though on the other hand I'd like to see him get into the HoF. That I think would be ok.Plus we'd also get to see cranky old Bob Feller get all bent out of shape at the awards ceremony.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
On top of all this, Martinez produced most of his great seasons during the offensive boom of the mid 90's. Edgar Martinez is a DH, plain and simple. Molitor was a position player who happened to DH later in his career.

And MY point is that Molitor shouldn't have paved the way for Edgar. Molitor's DH numbers are a supplement to his career numbers, Edgar's DH numbers ARE his whole career.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, they both produced most of their best seasons during the offensive boom of the mid 90s, not just Edgar. But I gave you Edgar's all-time rank in OPS+ to show his numbers are not a result just of the era he played in. He is truly a great hitter.

You are skewing the facts in how you characterize the players. Molitor played nearly 45% of his games at DH; his years as a DH were far more than a "supplement," they were nearly half his career and many of the best years of his career. If you took away Molitor's years as a DH, he would not be close to a Hall of Fame player (discount his totals by 44% and take a look at what you are left with), so it is a little ridiculous to say his years as a DH were just a "supplement" to his career as a position player.

I challenge you to find another player in the Hall of Fame who played 44% of his games at DH. Good luck, you'll be looking for a long time, because noone is even close. Molitor has played a far higher percentage of his games at DH than any other Hall of Famer. He'll probably retain that distinction until Edgar gets in.

By the way, while Edgar has primarily been a DH, his DH numbers are not his entire career, as you said, but about 2/3 of his career.

[pudley4]

Check out this story (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=caple_jim&id=1701466)

<ul type="square"> Molitor was an All-Star at three separate positions (1B, 2B, 3B). Baseball America rated him the best baserunner in baseball - at the age of 40. Molitor is the only one to steal 500 bases, hit 200 home runs and reach the 3,000-hit mark (he is ninth all-time with 3,319 hits). [/list]

While being a DH obviously prolonged his career, Molitor would still have been able to play many of those years as a first baseman, and I think it's safe to say he would have been less of a defensive liability than Frank Thomas, Mo Vaughn, or many of the other lumbering long-ball hitters who are "hidden" at 1B.

The guy was a great all-around baseball player. Martinez is just a great hitter.

[B-Man]

I've never disputed any of what you said. I agree Molitor was a great player, and I said from my first post that he deserved to be elected to the HOF.

However, Molitor was a very injury-prone player, and that is one of the reasons he played so many games as a DH. In fact, he was a DH for about 44% of the games in which he played--nearly half his career. He played far more games as a DH than he played at any other position; DH was his primary position. He's the first Hall of Fame player to have played nearly half his career as a DH. That is certainly going to help pave the way for Edgar Martinez to be elected.

Molitor was a great player; but he was also an oft-injured player who greatly benefited from the DH rule.

Edgar Martinez was (and is) a great hitter; he's a superior hitter to Paul Molitor, and he should be elected into the Hall of Fame when he becomes eligible.

[andyfox]

My guess is Rose never gets in. First, Selig would have to make him eligible. Selig is weak, so who knows. Then he'd have to be voted in. It looks like many people would not vote against him who might have voted for him previously. Rose is now on a publicity campaign (Prime Time on ABC tonight, Good Morning American tomorrow morning) which will probably work against him, given his usually pugnacious personality and demeanor. The old-timers committee will never vote him in. Usually it takes a friend on the committee to twist some arms (Rizzuto got in when Berra was on the committee; Doerr when Williams was a member). I can't imagine Johnny Bench pulling for Rose. Morgan was in favor of letting Pete in before, I haven't heard what his thinking is now.

And now that the cat's out of the bag, who knows if it will come out that he actually bet against the Reds at one time. I see where Todd Benzinger, who had worshipped Rose at one time, said it wouldn't surprise him. Note that Pete Gammons says he now feels Rose never loved baseball, he only loved himself.

[Josh W]

B-man

I shoulda stepped in earlier....

When dealing with Sooga, you gotta understand that he is always looking for a fight, and will usually dismiss what you say to make his point. Because of these tactics, he and I are pretty good friends.

And, I agree with you, 100%. Because Molitor got in, that doesn't mean that Edgar necessarily will. It doesn't mean that Edgar is a more valuable player than Molitor.

It simply means that Molitor getting in will HELP Edgar get in. If you think I'm wrong, imagine the opposite...imagine Molitor getting excluded. Then, what chance would Edgar have?

Two weeks ago, I woulda guessed that Edgar had a 35%ish chance of getting in. Now, I'd say it's 60%ish. If Molitor hadn't gotten in, I'd say it would be 15%ish.

Even if you (sooga, not B-man) disagree with my numbers, I think you have to agree with B-man's point...

Josh

[Sooga]

[ QUOTE ]

When dealing with Sooga, you gotta understand that he is always looking for a fight, and will usually dismiss what you say to make his point. Because of these tactics, he and I are pretty good friends.



[/ QUOTE ]

Me? I think Clarkmeister may have a thing or two to say about that one, you ornery old coot.

[Josh W]

Hey...I was the founder of that school of arguing...your imitation is nothing short of flattery, my young padouin.

[shemp]

Any male who has been married that does not realize a fundamental rule: after 15 years you stick to the original story -- should not be in any Hall of Fame.

[B-Man]

Agreed. Prior to this week, I thought there was a 75% chance Selig would reinstate Rose in time for him to be on the writers' ballot, and a 90% chance that, if placed on the ballot, he would be elected.

Now, I think it is unlikely Selig will reinstate him in time for him to be on the ballot (if ever), and even if he is on the ballot, I think it is 50/50 whether the writers would vote him in.

As you said, there is virtually no chance the veteran's committee would elect him.

[andyfox]

I saw Joe Morgan's comments in today's paper. Not good for Pete.

[CCass]

Edgar Martinez is a fine hitter, but if he retires now, he has zero chance of being elected into the HOF. He has 2100 hits, 300 HR, and 1200 RBI (I am rounding a tad). He has led the league in avg. twice and RBI once. I am a huge Molitor fan, and would never argue that his years as a DH helped his career, but he finished with 3,000+ hits, that is an automatic ticket to the HOF. Todays voters are arguing about the HOF credentials of Raffy Palmiero, I guy with 500 HR. Martinez was/is a great hitter, but he never gets 50% of the vote in a given season.

[Sooga]

[ QUOTE ]
Edgar Martinez is a fine hitter, but if he retires now, he has zero chance of being elected into the HOF. He has 2100 hits, 300 HR, and 1200 RBI (I am rounding a tad). He has led the league in avg. twice and RBI once. I am a huge Molitor fan, and would never argue that his years as a DH helped his career, but he finished with 3,000+ hits, that is an automatic ticket to the HOF. Todays voters are arguing about the HOF credentials of Raffy Palmiero, I guy with 500 HR. Martinez was/is a great hitter, but he never gets 50% of the vote in a given season.

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I absolutely 100% totally agree. This is what I've been saying from the start. His career totals simply do not warrant serious HOF consideration. Perhaps if he were a brilliant defensive player, you could factor that into the equation, but he doesn't play ANY defense at all. Molitor has what, the 8th highest hit total of ALL time? That's an auto-entry. Perhaps not first-ballot, but he's a HOFer. From '95 to '01, Martinez was a truly great hitter, maybe the best pure right handed hitter in baseball. But I don't think a great 7 year run and zero defense is enough.

[B-Man]

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Todays voters are arguing about the HOF credentials of Raffy Palmiero, I guy with 500 HR. Martinez was/is a great hitter, but he never gets 50% of the vote in a given season.

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Barring injury, Palmiero will finish closer to 600 home runs than 500 (he could easily surpass 600 if he plays 2 more years), and has a good shot at 3,000 hits (he is 220 hits short, so he needs to play this year and at least part of 2005).

Palmiero will sail into the HOF.

As for Edgar, for the reasons previously given, I disagree. I'm not going to repeat everything I've said before, but I'll sum it up by saying he is the best DH ever. He's 25th all-time in OPS and has been an outstanding hitter for a long time. I could care less how many hits he has; Pete Rose has the most hits, do you think he is the best hitter?

I guess we'll have to wait 6 or 7 years to settle this argument, but Palmiero will easily make the HOF, and Edgar has a very good chance, too (he's not a lock, but he's likely).