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View Full Version : WOW! The odds against this have to be astronomical!!


ScottTheFish
01-06-2004, 03:51 AM
I will never fold a 6 again as long as I live.

I'm playing 2 tables of Party 1/2 just a while ago...One table I have 66 in LP, the other I have T6o in the big blind...

One flop comes A66 for quads, the other comes T66 for the full house!! Cards came out literally at the same time. it was bizarre. To make it even MORE bizarre, I turned the case 6!!

Yes I had quad 6's at 2 tables at the exact same time. Anyone want to figure the odds on that one? On the second one the 3rd 6 on the board killed the action, I won 4 BB. I was actaully sad to make quads there LOL. But on the first one some poor slob had AA, flopped his set, and we capped on every street. /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

HajiShirazu
01-06-2004, 04:31 AM
I'm not going to sit and figure it out, but that is pretty awesome. I always love the action I get with quads. Nobody can believe you have it. Today I was betting with AQ on a queen high flop and got raised (and I 3-bet) when the second queen hit, then called again in two places when the third queen hit, giving me the monster quads.

Joe Tall
01-06-2004, 10:05 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone want to figure the odds on that one?

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds are going to be the same everytime when you hold these hands. This is why the deck is shuffled.

Peace,
Joe Tall

ScottTheFish
01-06-2004, 11:08 AM
I understand the odds of getting quads are the same all the time because the deck is shuffled, but that's not the same as the same rare hand coming off 2 shuffled decks simultaneously to the same person. You can't tell me that's not far more uncommon than just making quads.

Dylan Wade
01-06-2004, 11:59 AM
354024 to 1

I think. Just square the typical probability of quads in 7 cards.

Joe Tall
01-06-2004, 11:59 AM
[ QUOTE ]
You can't tell me that's not far more uncommon than just making quads.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I won't. It wasn't a random conicidence, it was destiny. /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Peace,
Joe Tall

ScottTheFish
01-06-2004, 12:18 PM
Cmon JT, why you giving me grief? Obviously it's a random occurence, just like any other hand. All I'm saying is it's very uncommon, far more uncommon than getting any given hand from a single deck.

Don't hate me because I'm lucky! /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Just playin'. I enjoy your posts and and your advice is helping me play more aggressive and better poker. (Not as aggressive as you yet tho /images/graemlins/ooo.gif)

Joe Tall
01-06-2004, 12:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Cmon JT, why you giving me grief?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course...have you seen my 'occupation'?

'Uncommon' OK, I just like to drill it into new players heads that the two hands are not related in any way shape or form. Just as getting deal AA three times in a row are not, (which happened to me this weekend in a B&M game /images/graemlins/grin.gif). I dragged all three. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Just playin'. I enjoy your posts and and your advice is helping me play more aggressive and better poker. (Not as aggressive as you yet tho

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you very much. Well, don't worry about that Homer, JTG and the boys think I'm a mike l. in the making. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Peace,
Joe Tall

Dylan Wade
01-06-2004, 02:07 PM
You're wrong here. Getting two quads at the same time isn't as likely as getting one quads. It has nothing to do with the hands being related to one another or not.

Joe Tall
01-06-2004, 02:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Getting two quads at the same time isn't as likely as getting one quads.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of it happening are the same each time, each hand independantly.

Peace,
Joe Tall

MaxPower
01-06-2004, 02:44 PM
Yesterday I was playing two tables on Party. On one table I was dealt A /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif and the flop came 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif j /images/graemlins/heart.gif. On the other table I was dealt 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the flop came A /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

The odds against that happening are astronomical, but you don't see me making posts about it.

Low probability events happen all the time. In fact, most events that occur are low probabilty.

The two hands that came to me and the two you got are equally likely, you just got lucky and made quads. Congrats.

colehard
01-06-2004, 02:59 PM
From all the responses to this I guess you should set up a challenge.

You put $1000 in the pot and your opponent puts $100 and then you each play two separate (independent tables). You only need to catch a set of quads on one table to win. Your opponent must catch a set of quads simultaneously on two tables to win - I'll even allow them to be different quads. Any takers?

Nice catch on the 6s BTW - you were lucky to be up against the set - now what are the chances of that /images/graemlins/confused.gif - never mind.....

Joe Tall
01-06-2004, 03:04 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I was playing two tables on Party. On one table I was dealt A /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif and the flop came 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif j /images/graemlins/heart.gif . On the other table I was dealt 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the flop came A /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, you are running bad. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Peace,
Joe Tall

ScottTheFish
01-06-2004, 03:11 PM
Thanks for the sarcasm, I realize from a techincally mathematical standpoint no hand is more likely to come up than another. The fact that I'm a beginning player doesn't make me a moron.

I just thought it was interesting, not an earth shattering eventor anything. But I'll be sure not to waste anyone's time with such posts in the future. But in the mean time you could lighten up a little. At least JT was lighthearted about bagging on me /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

MaxPower
01-06-2004, 03:38 PM
I thought I was being lighthearted /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Maybe one day you will get as jaded as me. If you play long enough you will see so many mindblowing things that not much will suprise you.

Please feel free to waste my time anytime you want.

elwoodblues
01-06-2004, 03:45 PM
I think all JT was saying was getting those two specific hands in two games is no different than getting these:

Hand 1:
7s2c with a board of 5sJd9h7c4s

Hand 2:
2c2h with a board of 7s7cAh9d4c

ScottTheFish
01-06-2004, 03:46 PM
Fair enough. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

ScottTheFish
01-06-2004, 03:52 PM
Yeah I get it, It's just that me being a human being and not a computer running a statistics program, I found the combination of cards in my 2 hands slightly more interesting and memorable /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

if you flip a coin 500 times, the chance of it being heads on each individual flip would be exactly 1 in 2. But if it came up heads 500 times in a row I would find that unusual, and might be inclined to make a comment about it to someone. Call me crazy.

Dylan Wade
01-06-2004, 04:49 PM
It's similar to dealing them consecutively. Even though the odds are the same for each time, the odds of dealing them consecutively is a different event. The odds of dealing them consecutively is the odds of dealing it one time times itself again. Actually, I didn't realize the player was playing three tables, so the real odds are a little lower. That's like dealing it twice in three deals. It's a different event entirely.

Yes, each deal has the same probability of dealing quads, but the chance of dealing consecutive quads is a different event with it's own odds. It just happens to be the prob of one multiplied by the prob of the other. Therefore it's the squared probability of one event. (again for three tables it's a little different--).

I don't know how else to explain it. It's simple probability.

WarmonkEd
01-06-2004, 06:40 PM
you guys are being mean. The guy's just happy he hit an awesome hand at two tables at the same time, let him have his fun.

harboral
01-06-2004, 07:31 PM
Hey Scott - thanks for the post! That must have been a lot of fun with quads on two tables at once - hope I see that at some time. Forget the guys that were sarcastic - they are just jealous. BTW, I would much rather read your post than some poor slob that wants to know if he played his Q/9o correctly and why he lost when he shouldn't have been there in the first place. ENJOY!

umdpoker
01-06-2004, 11:08 PM
hey. this happened to me about a week ago or so. except both of my tables i had 44 and they both hit quad 4's. i think one i flopped quads and made almost nothing, but the other table might have been my biggest win ever when the 4 came on the turn and the other guy hit a boat. its a crazy game we play.

jstnrgrs
01-07-2004, 01:12 AM
I was once dealt AA in two consecutive hands in a B&M. When those hands were over, I didn't have a single chip left. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

krazyace5
01-07-2004, 05:37 AM
Hey Scott that is great, much better than what happens at my two tables,
Whatever my hole cards are on one table seems to be the flop on the other table, now if I could just figure out how to switch my hole cards....