Bet 99 on flop for free card?

[Sleepy Weasel]

This was my biggest win from tonight, which was the best session I've ever had. Deck just killed me for 90 minutes, won 81 BB, to take back all my losses at 1/2 from last month (and then some), and also put me over $1000 profit since I started in August at .25/.5 with $100 (after almost exactly 200 table hours of play). Sorry about that, I'm excited and had to share. On to the hand.

Loose, fairly crazy Party 1/2 table. Couple of semi-maniacs in MP1 and MP2 who have been raising many hands preflop, and betting/raising without much postflop. This hand comes directly after two hands I won big on (a straight draw I pushed hard, and one of the JJ hands I posted in another thread), so the table has seen me very aggressive, but showing good hands lately.

My main question about this hand is the flop bet. My thinking was mostly that I could spend one SB now, and probably get a free card on the turn. Plus, it wasn't out of the realm of possibility that I had the best hand. Bad reasoning? Good thinking?

Party Poker 1/2 (10 handed)
Hero has 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and is Button

MP1 limps, MP2 limps, CO limps, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls

Flop(12 SB): 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls

Turn(8 1/2 BB): 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls

River(13 1/2 BB): 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, MP1 calls, CO calls

[ScottTheFish]

I'm just learning, but I'm not crazy about it.

1. You have 3rd pair and no draw against 6 people. You have very little chance to improve (23:1) The pot is big but not that big. Take the free card. I would fold if anyone bet in front of me.

2. A bet is unlikely to scare anyone into checking that would have otherwise bet. You said the table is loose and crazy.

3. You are already getting a free card. You are the button and everyone has checked to you. Take the free card and try to improve on the turn. The chances you are ahead here are almost 0.

But you juiced the pot and spiked the 9, so it worked out nicely /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[HajiShirazu]

Who knows. You might as well bet here, because there's a small chance that you could get a weak player with a ten to fold (although LAG's like you say probably wouldn't), and you'll likely get hands like Qx and Kx to fold, which also improves your chance to win. Ax isn't folding but Ax might have bet this flop. I have seen stranger things than nobody having an ace here. Granted, you usually need to spike a nine, but the pot is pretty large, so you might as well take a stab at it here to try and maximize your chance of winning. If you didnt have the (admittedly weak) backdoor straight draw or the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif you might have a better case for just taking your freebie right here and checkfolding the turn unimproved, but you probably should still bet in the hopes that you might be able to win the pot. Heck, it's usually suicide but you might even bet the turn if it's checked to you again. You raised preflop and an ace flops- your opponents might be thinking, "Better fold my ten-seven here, he's got that big ace he's representing, since he always seems to have it-I might even be drawing dead to his pocket aces".
Of course the downside to betting is when you get checkraised and have to fold, only to see that nine on the turn.
I had a hand today in a 2/4 Party game with pocket tens on the button. I raised two limpers and the BB and limpers called. The flop came AK8 rainbow and it was checked to me. I bet and all folded. Yeah, usually the clown with K4 off calls to the river. But sometimes they dont, or they just dont have it. It's not as big of a miracle as you might think.

[Joe Tall]

Well since everyone checked to you can bet to represent an Ace if you think you can take it down there but when everyone calls, you are likely behind.

I know you were blessed on the turn, but you should be prepared to check this through if you do not improve when you miss.

Other than that you played it fine.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Sleepy Weasel]

[ QUOTE ]
Who knows. You might as well bet here, because there's a small chance that you could get a weak player with a ten to fold (although LAG's like you say probably wouldn't), and you'll likely get hands like Qx and Kx to fold, which also improves your chance to win. Ax isn't folding but Ax might have bet this flop. I have seen stranger things than nobody having an ace here. Granted, you usually need to spike a nine, but the pot is pretty large, so you might as well take a stab at it here to try and maximize your chance of winning. If you didnt have the (admittedly weak) backdoor straight draw or the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif you might have a better case for just taking your freebie right here and checkfolding the turn unimproved, but you probably should still bet in the hopes that you might be able to win the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are just about exactly my thoughts in favor of this play. I thought one SB was a decent investment to try to get a better chance at winning a 12 SB pot. I would have expected most of these players to bet out at me with an A, and maybe I can get someone with a T to fold. Plus I felt confident in getting to see the river for free after the flop bet. Its not a play I think I'll do very often, but the table conditions seemed right for it.

[Sleepy Weasel]

[ QUOTE ]
I know you were blessed on the turn, but you should be prepared to check this through if you do not improve when you miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, absolutely. That was all the money I was willing to invest in that pot without improving. I'm folding to a check-raise or a turn bet (if I don't improve).

[Tosh]

Given the players you describe I think you should have taken a free card. Being check raised here is horrible and at this limit you won't get anyone to lay down a better hand.

[PokerSlut]

I disagree with this play.

1. Against so many players, one of them is almost certain to have limped in with an A or T, meaning you are beat on the flop.

2. The fact that everyone checked to you, the pre-flop raiser, means nothing. You are almost never going to push that many players out of a $12 pot with a $1 bet on the flop. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see a check-raise either on the flop or turn.

You got lucky this time, but IMHO most of the time you will lose money on this play.