scalf
01-05-2004, 11:40 PM
/images/graemlins/grin.gif..happy new year to all..
fundamentals seemed to rule the day in equity markets ; as the war factor and low interest rates seemed to counteract technical analysis in the stock market, but not the futures market. but, according to my technical and long-term trend analysis; the oct low will not be the end of the bear market, as long term price projections suggest the s & p will lose at least 30% and likely another 50% of current value before bear trend completes (probably in 2006.
intermediate term: the current corrective rally off oct low should continue into first quarter of 2004, and if it trades below march low then bear trend should continue to oct low.
short term: high should complete soon; around s % p 1111, last two corrective bull runs have been 31 and 28 trading days...ideally high would be this friday (jan 9).
election avoids key issues of conservation needed in a world of increasing consuption; the internationalization of jobs..(i.e. china pays auto factory worker 61 cents/hour)
the potential for needed increase in interest rates to counter fiscal irresposibility, central bank errors, and inflation fears are the next step in the world's post bubble shakeout..the bill for speculative excesses and global imbalances has yet to be paid...
if market does hold above 10494.44 (djia), there is a real chance that the manipulators can hold impending bear longer..
so' i judt do not know...lol.; but i did load up on u.s. and euro equities in nov. and have done well...
i still feel there is significant risk in u.s. equity markets...but i remain in them for now...
one short mention of rmbs...now about $31/sh...i believe there is still time to get aboard...and feel 65 within 6-8 months is highly probable...
just what i'm thinking today...it's worth what ya paid...lol...nothing...gl
scalfie jan 5, 3004
/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
fundamentals seemed to rule the day in equity markets ; as the war factor and low interest rates seemed to counteract technical analysis in the stock market, but not the futures market. but, according to my technical and long-term trend analysis; the oct low will not be the end of the bear market, as long term price projections suggest the s & p will lose at least 30% and likely another 50% of current value before bear trend completes (probably in 2006.
intermediate term: the current corrective rally off oct low should continue into first quarter of 2004, and if it trades below march low then bear trend should continue to oct low.
short term: high should complete soon; around s % p 1111, last two corrective bull runs have been 31 and 28 trading days...ideally high would be this friday (jan 9).
election avoids key issues of conservation needed in a world of increasing consuption; the internationalization of jobs..(i.e. china pays auto factory worker 61 cents/hour)
the potential for needed increase in interest rates to counter fiscal irresposibility, central bank errors, and inflation fears are the next step in the world's post bubble shakeout..the bill for speculative excesses and global imbalances has yet to be paid...
if market does hold above 10494.44 (djia), there is a real chance that the manipulators can hold impending bear longer..
so' i judt do not know...lol.; but i did load up on u.s. and euro equities in nov. and have done well...
i still feel there is significant risk in u.s. equity markets...but i remain in them for now...
one short mention of rmbs...now about $31/sh...i believe there is still time to get aboard...and feel 65 within 6-8 months is highly probable...
just what i'm thinking today...it's worth what ya paid...lol...nothing...gl
scalfie jan 5, 3004
/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif