Protecting Top Pair against draws...when?

[toby]

I am head-to-head against a fairly aggressive player who is first to act in front of me. I am fairly certain he is on a straight draw, and I have top pair. I went all-in after he bet about 1/3 of the pot on the flop to protect my hand, he called and hit it on the river.

Should I have have called him on the flop and gone all in when the blank hit on the turn, giving him much worse odds? He had me covered by a little, and was only a 2-1 dog to hit his open-ended straight draw.

-Toby

[artman]

Move in on the turn if a blank hits. He will have a hard time calling with one card to come. But against some players it doesn't really matter how you play cause they just don't lay down a hand they like. So when all the cards are out you still can be beaten. Ofcourse these are bad players but when they bust you that doesn't help you much.

Laterzzz
ARTMAN /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Side point.

I don't like the mindset behind the phrase "protecting my hand". It brings up images of damsels in distress somehow, or a king defending his castle. In these latter things, it is clear that you always protect your home when attacked, or struggle to save the one you love. But, it is not always clear that you should protect a poker hand just because it has achieved some level of rank, i.e., top pair or some such.

Don't think about protecting your hand. Think about maximizing your EV in the hand. Whether that's raising all-in, folding, calling, whatever. Consider the likely ways the hand could play out, the chances of each, and how much you lose or win each way. Then, make the decision whose group of outcomes maximizes your EV. Whether this maximum EV play protects your hand or not is irrelevant.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
I am head-to-head against a fairly aggressive player who is first to act in front of me. I am fairly certain he is on a straight draw, and I have top pair. I went all-in after he bet about 1/3 of the pot on the flop to protect my hand, he called and hit it on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ultimately, it depends on the pot/stack ratios at each decision point, but generally, why do you want an aggressive player with a straight draw to fold when you have top pair?

You're headsup against an aggressive player and you have position with a supposedly good read. Just let him hang himself. You can get away if the draw hits, and hang him when it misses. You can't make a mistake in response to his bets. He's making all the mistakes.

Generally, raising will just enable him to make the correct play and fold, or if it gets allin with cards still to come, it costs you the maximum. Normally, there are better ways to get the maximum payoff here whilst allowing yourself to get away when beat.

[X-Calibre]

so what do you recommend as the best way to play this hand? Just call the 1/3 bet on the flop?

If he knows the other player is aggressive and likely to call an all in, isn't that what you want to do, get as much money into the pot as possible when you are such a favorite?

I'm assuming this is a ring game and not a tourney.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
so what do you recommend as the best way to play this hand? Just call the 1/3 bet on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ultimately it depends on ratios, but if it's not too shallow or hugely deep, then yes. Call.

[ QUOTE ]
If he knows the other player is aggressive and likely to call an all in, isn't that what you want to do, get as much money into the pot as possible when you are such a favorite?

I'm assuming this is a ring game and not a tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on how much you expect to get off the aggressive player on turn and river when misses his draw. If you can get as much, or close to it by letting him keep bluffing, but can also get away correctly when he hits, that obviously is better than getting him all-in.

Ring game or tourney away from money would make no difference to me.

Worst thing you can do when you have a good enough read to not make a mistake on later streets is to give him a chance to correctly fold, or to win the maximum when he hits. Letting him keep betting wins us the maximium when ahead and loses the minimum when he hits his draw. He's making big mistakes. We're not.

Accuracy of read is important, with regards us not making any big mistakes on later streets. i.e. being bluffed out by worse hand when draw hits, that would have paid us off if we moved them all-in on flop, or when draw misses, paying off a better made hand that would have folded if we put him all-in at some point.etc.

[C M Burns]

I worked out some math that may be way off but here goes, first if you know you have ther best hand and the oponent is on a draw, all in is positive as long as you don't give him 2-1 odds, it is just a question of which move is better.

lets look at 100 hands of all in on flop and calling. i assumed for the math the pot was 75 your oponent bet 25, to make it 100 in pot and it is 25 to you, you have 200 and your op has u covered. so all in now makes it 200 to the op for 300 pot or 3-2 on a 2-1 shot.

if he calls
out of 100-33 times you lose 200 (33 x 200= -6600), 67 times you win (profit) 300 (67 x 300 =20100) 20100-6600 =13500 over 100 hands.

now if you call the flop: 20 times he hits his draw and you fold and lose 25 (20 x 25 =-500) now if you go all in and he calls, 64 times you profit 300 ( 64 x 300 =19200) and 16 (i calculated this 4-1 independently, maybe wrong) times he hits and you lose anothe 175 (16 x175 =-2800) so the net is 19200 -500 -2800 =15900 > 13500

so the call is more profitable BUT assuming he will still call with the draw on the turn, many won't, if you assume he will call with the draw 1/3 of the time the profit goes down to 12050 wich is worse than the flop all in. so it comes down to if he is a wild player who will play a draw to the end no mater what, just call, if he will back off if he doesn't hit the turn much of the time, but will call the flop, then go all in here. correct me if i am way off, please