Two hands with some general questions...

[cjx]

2-4 Party Poker

Hand One
I have AsJs in the small blind. We have 3 posters in addition to myself and the large blind. The action goes as follows:

UtG calls, UtG+1 raises, call, poster folds, call, poster calls, poster folds, fold and the action is on me.

Right now there are 4 players in for 2SB, 2 players remain (BB and UtG) who have 1SB in each and 2 posters who have folded 2SB. So, it's already a pretty big pot, 12.5SB likely to be 15SB if I call giving me 10 to 1 to call, but the question is... should I raise? I may have the best hand now, but even if I don't I have a pretty strong drawing hand and with such a large pot I think most players will come with me hypothetically (let's say BB folds, and everyone calls) 6 players for 3SB each and 3SB of posted money, a probable ~6 to 1 on my raise.

Hmm, I'm thinking I should raise, but.. in the end I don't... seems like this is a clear raise now that I've written it out. Flop comes 9d, 4c, Kc I check and fold ... is that wrong? Winning hand at the river is A9 vs AT, pair of 9's wins it.

Hand Two
77 in MP

I limp after one other limper, 5 to the flop.

Flop: 5s, 2s, 5c check, check, check, I bet my overpair, last guy calls and all fold, heads up for the turn. Is he slowplaying the 5, on a flush draw, or playing over cards? Outside chance of 34o I guess.

Turn: Qc (5s, 2s, 5c) I have to bet here right? If he raises me I can jettison assuming a Q or a 5, but if I check and he bets I am completely lost. So, I bet, he calls. Draw I guess...

River: 8c (Qc, 5s, 2s, 5c) I bet, he folds. Ok, this is a bad bet right? He only calls if I am beat unless he's holding 66 or possibly AK. And there is a chance he has that 5 and will come to life now with a raise that would really upset me because I think I MUST lay down, but am getting about 8 to 1 to crying call and see his 5.

Ok ok, so if it's a bad bet then I check and hope he checks, but plan to check and depending on the read I call if I think he's capable of trying to bluff me off or fold if I feel he's straightforward? In that case I'd fold as I didn't have a good read on him. Consulting poker tracker he plays way too many hands and seems to play them straightforwardly after the flop.

Thanks in advance,
cjx

[J.R.]

Hand 1 is routinely a call and not a raise given you are out of position against an EP raiser. An argument could be made for 3-betting based on the fact the EP raiser may be comming in light given all the dead money in that pot, but AJ is not that strong of a hand, even suited. Re-raising if EP is over-aggressive and known to be light may have some meta-game considerations for your image and may be marginally positive EV but in general it is probably best to call here more often than not as in general there is a good chance you may be dominated.

Hand 2 it may be good to try to induce a bluff or stop a bluff raise if your opponent is capable of such a play, but in general, bet. Many try to rationalize what an opponent may call with, and the best answer I have heard is money. Your opponent's have it, and you will be amazed how little they care for it if you exercise good game selection (as evidenced by Party 2-4). If your opponent has to have something better to call you here your bet is wrong, but 44, 33 a duece, A high and perhaps even worse may be within the realm of possibility. Its all in your read but in general don't give your opponents too much credit until they earn it.

Although its a lesser consideration online, there is value in always betting here, as I find people will paradoxically call you more often if they see you value betting more thinly.

[Lost Wages]

Hand 1)
I think just calling preflop is best, your hand isn't that strong. The flop is a clean miss, check and fold.

Hand 2)
Preflop and flop routine. Turn good, betting is mandatory. It's headsup so you can't backoff to one overcard. River, things get really complicated here. What are the probabilities that:
1)He call with a worse hand?
2)He bluff if you check?
3)He bluff raise if you bet?
4)He check behind with better hand?
5)He will he fold a better hand?
If you can accurately estimate all these probabilities in 2 seconds then you are a better player than me. It's easy to say he can't call with a worse hand here but the reality is you will often be shown A2 or somesuch. Since you will have to call if you check and against a sane opponent you can safely fold if you bet and he raises, I think you should bet.

Lost Wages