84o hand

[MrBlini]

I'd like comments on this hand.

PokerStars 1/2, loose and aggressive, 8 players seated

Hero gets a free play in the big blind with:
8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG folds, UTG+1 (loose, somewhat aggressive) calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero checks

6 SB to the flop:
Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls

11 SB to the turn:
[Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif] 7/images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 folds, SB folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 reraises, MP1 folds, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls

14.5 BB to the river:
[Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif] K/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls

Results to follow.

[spamuell]

Fold the flop.

[MrBlini]

Why?

[ProfLupin]

I think your play is spot on! This is a perfect board for your hand and you might have run into the nuts which would be too bad. However, you might have taken a nice pot over a set or lower straight.

[WarmonkEd]

I think a call is fine with 7:1 odds

I might've raised the river, especially if you've noticed he overplays his hands

[BugsBunny]

Fold the flop? No way. Once you factor in implied odds it's an easy call. Now if the card doesn't come on the turn then it's another story.

[MrBlini]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your play is spot on! This is a perfect board for your hand and you might have run into the nuts which would be too bad.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes, it would be quite rotten.

UTG+1 had 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif for the turned nuts.

I think the implied odds made the flop call correct, since conditioned on the turn card coming, most of the bets going into the pot will end up in my stack most of the time. By my count, I'm getting 9:1 to call, so it seems pretty easy. In retrospect, I don't see any way to get away from this, and in fact I think it was a bit weak not to 3-bet the river. My biggest question was when to stop. It was disconcerting getting raised every single time, and at some point I obviously decided to give in. Seeing all the possibilities for sets and two pair hands makes me wish I'd been a little braver--and lost a little more--with the second nuts.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

I'd play this exactly the same way. Also, I count 9:1 odds for the flop call...add in implied odds and you're good to go.

Nuts over second-nuts sucks.

[GuidoSarducci]

Gah! Fold the FLOP?! When his call is a small bet into a then 10 small bet pot? With that many callers?

He's about even or maybe a touch under on the pot odds, but his implied odds are HUGE here! If he spikes the straight on the turn (which he did), it would take a hell of a read to put him on the straight.

If the turn misses, I MIGHT fold. Maybe.

[DeuceKicker]

Can you tell me how you get 7:1 odds? (Same goes with the ones saying he has 9:1 odds)

I would think MP2 has probably paired the Queen so it looks to me like you only have 4 outs for about 11:1 odds. I'll admit to not working with implied odds in my game yet, but he doesn't seem to have immediate odds to chase a gutshot.

Didn't S&M write that one of the biggest mistakes new players make is call the flop with fewer than 6 outs (assuming an unraised pot?) and don't people post all the time on these boards about fish chasing gutshots?

I have a feeling I'm missing something embarrassingly simple.

[ggano]

There are no hard and fast rules, you have to look at the individual situation, including the implied odds. Pot odds are exact and concrete, but not very relevant.

In this case, the pot odds at the time of his post-flop call are 9:1, because there are 9 bets in the pot and he'd have to add one of his own to call. The odds of hitting the straight on the next card are 11:1. (Odds and pot odds are different.)

So based on pot odds alone, you should fold. But implied odds say that if he thinks that if other people will add at least 3 more small bets if he makes his straight, then he should call (becuase that means that implied odds are at least 12:1, which is more that the odds of hitting the straight on the next card, so calling will be profitable). Of course, as he found out, you have to take into consideration the fact that you might make your straight and still lose; so you want to throw in a fudge factor there. So you can see that implied odds is an inexact science. But since pot odds really aren't relevant, you just have to estimate the implied odds.

Any good poker book will explain implied odds.

[arfsananto]

That was a good explanation of the pot, card, and implied odds in this situation. But it brings up another question for me. I understand the concepts involved here (I hope), but I'm having a problem with the application.

I understand how, with implied odds, it was ok to bet the flop. But the flop calculations are in SB. But the turn bet will be in BB. So when thinking about implied odds, don't we have to consider how many BB's we anticipate in the pot if we want to bet the turn? Or is this a case of "I can bet the flop because of implied odds, but if I don't improve on the turn I would not then have the correct odds and would have to fold"

I'm trying to understand and be able to use odds, without becoming a weak-tight, auto-folding, can't-see-the-power-of-the-hand-past-the-pot-odds robot.

Thanks

Adrian

[ggano]

(1) Pot odds and implied odds can help you determine whether to fold or not. They're not used in deciding whether to bet or not, that's a different issue. The PO/IO are only for deciding whether to stay in when you have a drawing hand.

(2) What you really care about when computing PO/IO is the amount of dollars. Using SBs or BBs is just a convenient way to calculate it. You can use either one, and of course 2 SBs = 1 BBs.

(3) The PO/IO might indicate calling on the flop but not on the turn. Every street will be a separate calculation of whether it's worthwhile to stay in or not.