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06-19-2002, 02:37 AM
An average player open raises 2 off the button, all 3 players including the small blind call. I am in big blind with 32s and getting 9 to 1 pot odds. Is a call here reasonable. The reason i ask is because i made this play and beat AA and my opponent has been bitching about it ever since. Multiple opinions would be very appreciated.


Thanks

06-19-2002, 04:02 AM
well, your hand is certainly disguised. im sure he paid you off, thinking 'there's no way this guy defended with 32s!!'

06-19-2002, 05:43 AM
I apologize in advance for the approximate odds given here. I don't believe they are off more than 1 or 2 points either way.


Your odds of flopping a four-card flush are about 8-1. Of course then you still have to hit your last suited card AND hope 32 flush is good. The odds of flopping a five-card flush are about 115-1.


Your odds of flopping a four-card open end straight are about 40-1. Your odds of flopping a five card straight are about 150-1. Contrast this to holding a hand like 65 where your odds of flopping a four-card open end straight are about 13-1, and the odds odds of flopping a five card straight are about 75-1. Huge difference.


Your odds of flopping two pair (a very dodgy two pair I might add) are about 50-1. The good news is you can be pretty sure you won't be splitting the pot if 3322 takes it.


The odds of flopping either 3 threes or 3 twos are over 70-1. And you cannot rule out being out-kicked if you hit your trips.


Even though your implied odds are excellent if you hit, I still wouldn't call with 32s. Some here might and I'd like to know why if they do.


With a hand like 65s though, I'd call in a flash.

06-19-2002, 10:26 AM
32s v 1 random hand wins 36% of the time


v 2 = 24%


v 6 = 12%


65s v 1 random hand wins 44% of the time


v 2 = 30%


v 6 = 15%

06-20-2002, 03:49 AM
Thanks Mr. Haven.


So extrapolating your results to the hand in case, would it be fair to say 32s wins 8% of the time against four RANDOM hands? And of course much less than 8% as we're presuming with a raise and three cold calls there might be some quality hands there. Not just random hands.


Best of luck to you. LTL

06-20-2002, 06:08 AM
32s v 1 random hand wins 36% of the time


v 2 = 24%


v 4 = 15%


v 6 = 12%


65s v 1 random hand wins 44% of the time


v 2 = 30%


v 4 = 20%


v 6 = 15%


random means as dealt - you would still win the hand 15% of the time that you played it against four opponents receiving cards - it's just that the 15% of times that you won you might win only $10 and the 85% of the time you lost you could lose your shirt


if nine opponents receive cards but only four play the hand then your point becomes more likely

06-20-2002, 07:08 AM
Thanks and very interesting. I had a brain block and the "v" confused me. Best of luck to you. LTL

06-20-2002, 11:18 AM
sorry - must be a british thing


v = versus = against

06-20-2002, 05:31 PM
The times when 32s can drive the betting are so few that I doubt you will be giving up any profit if you fold this hand in every situation.

Save the extra bet and wait for a more profitable situation.


If you call --

Best case scenario: the flop misses you completely, and you fold for a bet.

Worst case: you catch a piece of the flop (or even a lot of it) and lose a stack or 2.

You will rarely show down this hand and win, and against that many players, you will likely have to show it to drag the pot. Against that many players, your chances of winning the pot on a bluff are pretty slim.