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View Full Version : Bet this one early


Wildbill
12-23-2003, 11:29 PM
Still thinking scenarios through, but this one should be easy and will jump early before it gets bet up.

Patriots -8 over Bills
Buffalo is shot, completely. I think they all can't wait to get rid of Williams, he is as sure as gone. With that in mind can't imagine seeing any effort out of this team, especially a QB that I can't think likes him. Add to this the fact that the Pats had to wait all season long for the long awaited revenge for the pasting they got in week 1. They don't make games much stronger than this one, I think some are expecting Bledsoe to be fired up but I read it differently. He and Lawyer got their big moment in week one, this will be payback in the worst way.

Couple other games I am "investigating" are:
Packers -6.5 - I suspect Denver would rather lose this one and go visit the Colts or even Titans before facing a road game at Baltimore. Only thing is that it is hard to lay a lot of points on a team coming off a MNF rout, but this might be a time it is warranted.
Giants +5 - Since the mystery is out about Fassel, but he is still around for one last game, I suspect a going away win might be in order. He doesn't seem to be hated by the team, they just stopped playing for him as the situation got out of hand. Facing a team with little on the line this one seems like a prime spot for a going away present despite the lousy last month of play by the team.
Chargers -4 - Raiders are cooked and done with, could they have made it any more clear on Monday? This game always means more to the Chargers and their fans, they will treat this as their feel-good game and run it up on a poor rushing defense.

Will finalize picks later, but already down on the Pats -8 -02 at Pinnacle. I think as we get close to Saturday this will get run up to 10 or more so get it early.

Wildbill
12-24-2003, 09:10 PM
Final picks
Pats -8 (still at 8, but better hurry)

Chargers -4
More I think about this one the more I like it. The Chargers seem to have ended the uncertainty about Marty and that should be a positive. I don't know if the players necessarily like him, but they know he will be around next year and has power over who stays and leaves so it is important to play hard this week. Once again the rivalry means a lot to the Chargers and in good years and bad they still have a tough time with the Raiders. Given a chance to beat a team that looks like it has quit, I think they win real easy. Only downside is the chance that they lose the number one pick, but I don't think they are too worried about it as much as people might think.

Giants +6
Line moved up at Bodog and I took it. Panthers have nothing to play for, to lay almost a TD with a team like that is crazy. The Giants haven't played well, but I still truly think they will want Fassel to go out a winner. They got to the Superbowl with him and he has been around a long time so there isn't a personality problem there. The Panthers faced with a game that counts in a week will take it easy and rest starters and cut down the playbook. Strong situational play even if the stats don't really bear it out.

mikelow
12-25-2003, 02:35 PM
Like the Giants selection--beware of "dead" teams in their finale. Panthers can't win by a margin (though Lions needed
both a special team TD and a defensive TD to cover last week).

Laying four with a 3-12 team is very hard to do. Chargers' decline stems from poor drafts (Ryan Leaf and possibly Drew Brees comes to mind) and some questionable decisions like letting Junior Seau and Rodney Harrison go to other teams.
Stadium dispute also hinders the team. Another dubious decision was to move training camp to Cal State Dominguez Hills (an industrial area close to where I work).

Alex Spanos is one of those clueless owners just Bidwell and Snyder.

One Saturday game I like is the 49ers over the Seahawks if I
can get a suitable line. At pick I will fade the Seahawks who are 1-6 on the road (2-5 ATS) against a hot Jeff Garcia.
T. O. being out not too much of a factor as I think the team chemistry will be better.

scalf
12-27-2003, 05:35 PM
/images/graemlins/grin.gif..you da man; w.b.

fantastic call; both on game and line movement...

i cashed a nice one here..

gl /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Gitz
12-27-2003, 07:36 PM
Nice Pic WB!!!! Unfortunately I had it with the over and Colonel Klink (Vinatari) hit the goal post from 24 yards out to kill my over!!! Not to mention the Buffablows mistakes inside the red zone!!!!!! Hopefully the next game I go to will be at Reliant to watch the Pats!!!!

Paul