KK very very late in a tourney

[PrayingMantis]

Hi all,

We're last 3 in a 10+1 SNG. We are in the money. Big stack with T6400, I'm with T2800 and another with T800. Blinds are 160/320. I'm holding K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the button.

I raise to 640 (?). SB, which is big stack, calls. He calls almost everything at this point, maybe not an all in by me. Small stack on the BB, goes all-in for another T480. I can call 140, but have the option to raise. I'm not sure if that's the rule in a B&M tourney, but on TGC it is. What do I do? Pot is already 2060, and I have 2140. All-in now to make Big-stack commit or fold? or just call and play the flop?


Any advise is welcome...



PrayingMantis

[NotMitch]

Push in. Big stack might call with a wide range of hands and even if you get beat by the small stack you could very well win the side pot with the big stack. You are not going to find a better spot with the blinds so high and rising.

[LetsRock]

I don't even see this as an issue - shove 'em in.

The worst case scenario is that bigstack calls and outdraws you and you somehow finish 3rd. Unless the bigstack is exteremely impatient, he'll probably let you tangle with the shortstack.

Best case scenario is you double up + and be the chip leader heads up.

Big stack is going to defend any kind of reasonable blind vs. your first raise and small stack is already in for a good chunk of his stack with the blind and is going to exploit any opportunity his marginal cards can bring him at this time.

If this was AK, I'd have a different answer, but with KK very likely to be the best hand at this time, I'd have those chips in there real fast.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya P.M.,

Easy all-in. You probably have the best hand at this point, and yes, you'd rather isolate the short stack. You just can't waste a premium hand like this at this point in a tourney.

Cris

[Runner Runner]

This is a no brainer. Go allin. In fact, with the blinds this high and a shortstack moving in, I would go allin with as little as nines or AK or AQ. Calling or folding kings in this spot is ridiculous and not even worth considering.

[PrayingMantis]

Hey all, thanks for the feedback. I was also thinking going in here is the only thing to do, but had to post here to see if I was missing something. That's, of course, due to the unhappy results, after my all-in. Well, big stack pushes all-in too. We are all all-in.
Big stack shows: 55.
Small stack: JJ.

Flop: J89.

"Well, at leat I win the side pot".

Turn: 3, River: 5.

They both got their sets. I'm out. Nevermind.

And I know it has nothing to do with the right decision of going in, pre-flop. Next time I'm going in too...





PrayingMantis

[LetsRock]

Don't you just love this game.....

[redwings03]

Situations preflop seldom come up where you are in such a dominating position and your two opponents are completely willing to go along. Take advantage everytime. Push the chips in and punch your monitor when that S--t happens!!!

[PrayingMantis]

I know it doesn't realy have much to do with playing better poker, but it had me thinking: how do you calculate the chances of losing with KK to BOTH JJ and 55? In other words, in that situation, all-in, what is the probability of 5 AND J showing at least once, without any K? (I guess flush possibily could complicate this a little - because K can show up, but the other two can win with a flush). I started calculated it, but messed it up somehow. Is the EV according to twodimes can help on this one? I can't really figure how...

That's only if someone has the time and interest.




PrayingMantis

[GrinningBuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
In other words what is the probability of 5 AND J showing at least once, without any K?

[/ QUOTE ]

About as probable as Paris Hilton getting a PhD...

[redwings03]

I may be setting this up fundamentally wrong but here is my quick analysis and you more "math" inclined people can correct me if you like...
First the set of 5's occurring is

(2 cards x 5 chances) / 48 unknown cards at this point

=20.8% chance he makes 5 5 5(you can lobby for using 46 or a slightly smaller divisor since we know the other guy has a pair of jacks now but let's stick to cards face down theory)

Set of jacks occurring (assuming the 5's get there with one of the cards leaves only 4 other cards to be a J on the board)

(2 cards x 4 chances) / 48 = 16.66% chance that he will make a set with only 4 chances to draw at it.

.1666x.208 = .035 or roughly 3.5% chance that they would both get there with sets.

And you can take it one step further and say that if they both get there with sets you can improve 2 cards (only 3 chances for that though.)

There are my quick calculations...may have missed something and if I did please advise....CHEERS

[LetsRock]

[ QUOTE ]
and punch your monitor when that S--t happens!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL! Good thing I have a rubber screen!

[redwings03]

I thought you asked what are the chances both would get there with sets...you actually asked that one would get there with a set.

Odds of one of their sets occurring is

(4 cards x 5 chances) / 46 unknown cards at that moment or 43%

but you also have the chance to improve as well over 21% of the time which reduces their chances of beating you to only the tiniest of percents.

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for bothering and doing it... I actually asked what is the chance of BOTH WINNING over me, so you're first calculation is quite in the direction, I think, although, as you mantion, the divisers can be a litlle smaller, 46 instead of 48 (we have 6 cards accounted for while doing this calculation, not as players holding KK without any information), and what's more is that you have to subtract the probability of K occuring in one of the remaining places (2 options for 3 cards, minus the board: J-J-5-5-K, in which K appears but still loses to both).

Other options of both beating KK, which make it more complicated, that's why I'm not getting into it, is by a board of 7-8-9-Q-5, for example, which gives JJ the straight and 55 the set. It can be reversed, of course: 3-4-6-7-J. There's also a chance of both making 2 flushes, one bigger and one smaller, and I have none.

Well, thanks for making the calculation for the sets... Now I see what magnitude of bad beat it really was... /images/graemlins/mad.gif


PrayingMantis /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[MrFroggyX]

At the site Pokersavvy (http://www.pokersavvy.com) there hand analyzer gives this numbers:

5 5
WIN: 16.08%
LOSE: 83.65%

J J
WIN: 19.24
LOSE: 80.49

K K
WIN: 64.40
LOSE: 35.33

[ScottTheFish]

This gives him a 35% chance to lose to one hand or the other, but I would think the chances have to be much less to lose to BOTH JJ and 55, right? I would think less than 1%