5/10 Blind Defense (supposedly)

[JohnShaft]

Having a bad run of things lately, and not sure if my game has been affected, which is the main reason I'm posting this.
At times it feels like I'm calling down too much lately when I'm beaten.

5/10 Online (UB) Typical (30%+)

Folded round to Loose CO he Raises
Folded to me I reraise in BB with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
He calls. Headsup.

Flop T /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
I Bet, He Raises, I 3-Bet

Turn A /images/graemlins/club.gif
I Bet, He Raises...

[WillMagic]

Bleh, this is trouble.

I think he has an ace. I can't put a figure on how likely it is. But it seems pretty likely - the flop raise was testing you, but i think the turn raise is the real deal.

I think folding is the right move, but it's close.

Will

[Lost Wages]

You have an easy turn call with 6 outs (6.7:1) getting 9:1. If you miss, I guess you look him up.

Lost Wages

[JTG51]

At times it feels like I'm calling down too much lately when I'm beaten.

When I'm playing poorly that's almost always the biggest reason.

I think you can safely fold here. He's almost definitely got you beaten, and you aren't getting the right price to chase. You're getting about 9-1 for your gutshot which makes it close, but when you add in the fact that you'll probably only get one bet on the river if you hit, and that you could easily be drawing to a chop, it looks like a clear fold to me.

[Luke]

Hi John,

Yeah, I agree with Will, this is trouble. It's very close, but I think you have to let go of your QQ - not to say that I'd be able to do it in the heat of battle.

Luke

[JTG51]

You have an easy turn call with 6 outs...

It's pretty optimistic to say he's got 6 outs. He'll have 6 outs sometimes, but he'll also have 2 outs to chop sometimes and 3 outs to win sometimes.

If you miss, I guess you look him up.

What does look him up mean? If that means you are going to call the river even if you don't improve then you have a really easy turn fold since your odds are now more like 10-2 instead of 9-1.

[Lost Wages]

Yea you're right, fold the river if you don't improve.

I think the turn call is good though. What hands can you put him on? AA and KK are unlikely since he didn't cap preflop. AK is possible and that's the hand you fear most. Based on the action I think his most reasonable holdings are AJ or AT, in which case your outs are clean. Plus, you have a 2.3BB overlay for the times you're wrong.

Lost Wages

[JTG51]

I agree that AJ and AT are his most likely hands, but KQ is a real possibility also. I think his opponent will have AK or KQ often enough to make it a fold.

[MtSmalls]

I think this is tougher than some of the other posters are putting it.

"Folded to the CO", easily could be a blind steal. The fact that he calls rather than caps...

He raise/calls again on the flop, then raises again on the turn. You describe him as loose. I probably would have called the turn and check/called the River.

There are actually 11BB in the pot when you have to call the turn raise. I think you're good more than 20% of the time here, but I don't play 5/10 at UB.

[JohnShaft]

Thanks for the responses everyone.
FWIW I folded. And I didn't get to see his hand.

Of course it 'looked' like, say, AJ.
But with his play I think he could have flopped a monster, JJ/TT (and made a nice call of the flop 3-bet to raise the Turn).
Or he could have had AA, and gaveup a bet Preflop to make it up on later streets.
And that's not counting KQ and me drawing to 3 outs for a split.

Much, much later a little demon in my head whispered "If he had KJ he owned you".
But I think mostly I'm in a bad spot here. Pot odds are illusory because I could have *way* less outs than I need.

I think for once I likely made a smart fold. (With a slim chance he really outplayed me)

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is tougher than some of the other posters are putting it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. I would call down against an unknown player, or an aggressive player.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course it 'looked' like, say, AJ.
But with his play I think he could have flopped a monster, JJ/TT (and made a nice call of the flop 3-bet to raise the Turn).
Or he could have had AA, and gaveup a bet Preflop to make it up on later streets.
And that's not counting KQ and me drawing to 3 outs for a split.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK I'm just gonna look at some math here for no good reason.

You have 6 outs against TT, JJ, AJ, and AT (24 hands)
3 outs against AK (12 hands)
2 real outs and 4 splits (4ish outs) against AQ (6)
4 outs against AA (3)
2 outs against KK (for completeness) (6)
and of course the happy 3 outs to chop against KQ. (8)

Calculating all that out gives something like an average of 4 outs.

You are getting 9-1, but I can't imagine collecting more than 1 bet on the river. So at best your implied odds are 10-1. Since sometimes you will end up paying off the straight or trip aces when you spike a Q that makes it a bit worse. You are just under 11-1 to make you hand so I guess you made the right decision. If you would have felt the need to call the river when a blank fell, i think its an even clearer fold.

Nice fold, I don't think I could have done it.

[CrackerZack]

you have to call the turn raise. you can fold the river. I hate folding the river for one bet, but look at the flop, what can you beat? QJ? Is he that nutty? You may be splitting with another K or more with on the turn, but the range of hands he can raise from the cutoff is wide enough that I think you have to make the turn call and hope for the best if you hit a Q or K. I was on UB for a while tonight but now I'm too drunk to play well. I'll look for you tomorrow night when I'm on.

[CrackerZack]

i disagree based solely on what I will raise from the cutoff. He needs to call this turn raise. I've heard you're a rock unless you have 99 or its your home game /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[PocketRocketsBF]

I think you need to make sure you are mixing it up some. If you have been consistently laying down hands like this to position raises - you are going to need to call down some of them. If you don't, smart players are going to notice this and will attempt to run over you.

You said this player was loose. Could it be possible he has a KcJc? He's got top pair on the flop but backs down to the 3 bet. Raises the scare card on the turn (maybe you fold) and he's got a gutshot straight and flush draw.

[JohnShaft]

Thanks for all that nottom, that really helps. And it shows it is really close.

As for the fold it's not normally a fold I'd make. And if it wasn't for the fact that I've been making too many calls when I'm beaten lately I don't think I would have.

And calling the River bet. I don't know. If I see the River and I'm getting 11-1 I think that's a hard non-call to convince myself to make. With a made hand I usually don't call the Turn unless I'm calling the River.
So I think the fact I'd be so tempted to call the River I'm more comforted the fold probably wasn't a bad move.

[Vehn]

This is an impossible situation and there's no advice I can give you. Plus I'm drunk too.

that is all.

[JohnShaft]

I do think it's super-close. But, discarding he'd mess with you with a worse hand, nottom's analysis says I'm getting just the worst of it. And especially if I river a Q, and he has/makes the straight.

You said you disagreed with folding based on what you'd raise from the Cutoff with. But would be raising me on the Turn with a hand I beat when I've 3-bet you on the previous *two* streets? (Pretty easy for me to 3-bet him again if I have something like AA/JJ/TT)

On his part, it's a pretty smart move if he has KJ. But tbh I don't think he was capable of it.

[ QUOTE ]
I was on UB for a while tonight but now I'm too drunk to play well. I'll look for you tomorrow night when I'm on.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's all I need a 2+2'er at the table! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
But if you turn up drunk we've got a deal. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[JohnShaft]

Thanks Pockets, I agree on the mixing up some.
But as one of my maxims is "I don't do strong folds headsup" the answer is no, I wasn't consistently laying down to position raises. I *over* calldown if anything (because I'm so tight preflop).
This may have even been the same session I called down a Turn raise with JJ on a QTxx board, only for a guy to River his semi-bluffed Flush/Gutshot draw.

Loose he was. But not neccessarily over aggressive. KJc? It's possible. KJ was the hand later that stuck in my head, but I think that's probably wishful thinking.
My educated guess is he really did have KQ. I think every street is consistent with a non-tricky/tough opponent playing it that way. If not that then AJ.
I'll never know though, sadly.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
At times it feels like I'm calling down too much lately when I'm beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is how I 'bleed' most of the time also.

It's close but folding has to be correct.

Peace,
Joe Tall