+EV when raising draws?

[Griffin]

Some plays/players I've run into have made me question my understanding of when it is +EV to raise a drawing hand. I would appreciate it if you guys could do a quick check on my comprehension of this concept.

In some recent hands, my oppenents are aggressively raising their draws. For example, a player with an OESD caps the flop against 2 players. In another hand a player caps the flop heads up with a flush draw. (See this post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=443 538&Forum=All_Forums&Words=6342&Match=Username&Sea rchpage=0&Limit=25&Old=allposts&Main=443538&Search =true#Post443538 ) and hands 3 and 4 from this other post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=446145&page=2&view=ex panded&sb=5&o=14&fpart= ) if interested in the full play of these aggressive drawing hands).

These are just a couple of examples of what I consider to be "more aggression than is mathematically warranted". I frequently run into players who will raise and cap their draws against few players or even heads-up. I'm beginning to wonder if I'm misunderstanding a basic probability concept. I know there are times you raise or cap to intimidate other players, create a table image, or just hopefully win the pot. My question, however, deals with raising draws for value.

I thought that you raise draws for value only when you believe the number of people calling your raise is greater than your odds of making your hand. For example, if I have an OESD my odds are 4.75:1. If I think only two players will call my raise, raising is a mathematical mistake (ignore the other reasons for raising for now please). If, however, SB bets, 4 call and I'm next to act, a raise is +EV assumnig all 5 call.

Do I correctly understand the probability aspect of raising drawing hands, or am I missing something? Should I be capping the flop with a 4-flush regardless of the number of oppenents? ......It's certainly what a lot of people do against me with their flush draws!

Thanks,

[Henke]

Well, your odds to improve a flushdraw on either turn or river are 1.86:1, which means that you gain a small amount against two opponents (you gain about 0.35*n-1 where n is the number of players on the flop, the answer will be in units of small-bets). That would also mean that whoever is capping the flop against you headsup is loosing money to you. However, headsup, he could be doing this as a semibluff or to get a free card, and he wouldn't be loosing that much (from the eq above, he will lose about 0.3 small bets per bet that enters the pot). /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Munga30]

You have the probability basics correct, but you may want to consider the odds of improving in two cards rather than just one when deciding to "value" raise. Yes, you will often have to put in a big bet to see the second card but your equity in the bets after hitting on the turn somewhat balances this out.

From what I can tell, your examples are of opponents taking this concept too far against you, unless you fold a lot.

[Griffin]

[ QUOTE ]
You have the probability basics correct, but you may want to consider the odds of improving in two cards rather than just one when deciding to "value" raise. Yes, you will often have to put in a big bet to see the second card but your equity in the bets after hitting on the turn somewhat balances this out.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm just now getting decent at making sure my play is "odds correct" based on one card to come. But you're right...If I'm going to play optimally, I need to consider two card odds as well. Now that I think about those odds, some of the plays I've seen aren't as "off" as I thought.

[ QUOTE ]
From what I can tell, your examples are of opponents taking this concept too far against you, unless you fold a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I do fold a lot, but that's how I maintain a decent win rate! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

As far as folding to aggression, I'm still on the tight-weak side so it's very possible other players are trying to push me around. I'm sure I'll get the math of raising down long before I fully grasp the psychology of raising!

[Noo Yawk]

One of the biggest mistakes I see players making when they start jamming their draws, is that they squeeze out the player or players most likely to pay them off if they do hit.
Heads up you need to be against an opponent who is also capable of folding a better hand.

[SittingBull]

FAVORITE but do not presently have the BEST hand,it is ALWAYS correct to raise your draws. In the long run,U will win more money than u will lose. However,be sure that the pot is laying u sufficient odds for u to do this. However,if u are NOT a money favorite and does NOT have the best hand,raising is definitely INCORRECT.
Happy Pokering, /images/graemlins/smile.gif
SittingBull

[Griffin]

Hi SittingBull,

Thanks for the advice. Before I started using odds in my play, I just globally applied the "check when you have outs, bet when you don't" to all of my draws. I could have 15 outs and be last to act after 7 callers and would just call right along. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif Now I realize how many extra bets I was losing by not raising.

[ QUOTE ]
Hello,griffen1

[/ QUOTE ]
I think there's a griffen1 that plays at Party, but that's not me. I play under the name Griffins there. Lately though, I've been spending most of my time at Pacific as the slower play gives me more time to practice calculating odds and think about my play in general.

[TaintedRogue]

What if on the flop you have a double gut shot draw to a nut straight & 2 of a suit on board...........going to raise then?

[ACPlayer]

In multi-way pots need to consider the question of outs vs nut-outs. Jamming with perceived outs which have you drawing dead is expensivel.

[Duke]

[bernie]

for the most part, you're right. however, position also helps. you can raise a draw with fewer players in the pot to try for the free card on the turn. making the initial -EV raise on the flop positive since you got a discounted turn.

b

[CORed]

The people you see going 3 or 4 bets with draws with insufficient callers are, for the most part, loose agressive idiots, or at best people who do not fully understand the pricipals of betting or raising a draw for value.

However, there are other reasons to bet or raise a draw.

Semi-bluff: Heads-up or threeway, you are betting (or sometimes raising) because you believe that the total EV from your opponent(s) folding + hitting your draw is positive. This, of course, assumes that your opponents actually fold sometimes, and is best done when opponents appear weak.

Bet instead of call: If you think it is likely that somebody behind you will bet if you check, but it is not likely that someone will raise if you bet, it is often best to bet. The cost is the same, you may win the hand if everyone folds, and it makes it harder for you opponents to read you. This is really a variant of the semi-bluff, but your EV is more on future hands than the current one.

"Free" card raise. In late position in a structured game on the flop, you raise in order to get your opponent(s) to check to you on the turn. This is more correctly a 1/2 price card raise. You put in an extra small bet on the flop to avoid putting in a big bet on the turn. You usually make this play when you are last to act. You can also make it if second to last, if you think it is likely that the last player will fold and leave you last on the turn. Also, if you hit on the turn, less sophisticated players may not think you have the straight or flush, because they don't think you would have raised with a draw.

It is often better to bet a draw rather than check and call, even if the number of anticipated callers isn't quite enough to make a bet for value correct. This is less true if you have agressive players at the table who will frequently raise you, especially if the player to your immediate left will raise and knock out the other players.