Raise the Flop? And call'er down?

[Brian]

Party 3/6. The player in question in this hand had just posted his BB, and I don't have reads on over half the players because the table had just gone from 5-handed to 10-handed. I am dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif UTG. I raise, EP cold-calls, MP cold-calls, LP poster calls, SB calls, BB calls. 6 to the Flop for 12sb.

Flop: A /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, BB bets. Out of habit I raised, but I think that calling here planning to raise the Turn if a non-Club falls is by far the superior action. However, raising worked out just dandy as everyone folded back to the BB who re-raised. Your move? What do you do if a Club comes on the Turn? On the River?

-Brian

[J.R.]

I think the wait to the turn to raise line has more merit headsup, but with 3 players to act, you may get raised after calling the flop, and the turn then becomes much harder as you don't know if the flop raise was a big club, a worse ace, 2 pair or a flush. You hand is also vulnerable to non-club draws as well (possible straight, 2 pair draws), so I think its best to raise the flop here, both to define you hand and do your best to eliminate the other competition.

In your shoes (after the flop 3-bet) I would raise the turn if bet into on a non-club card (unless a Q or A, in which case I call), folding to a 3-bet and checking it through if called on the turn. If a club comes on the turn and BB checks, I bet as the last money into the pot. If a club falls on the turn or river and I am bet into I most likely just fold. If BB leads the river after calling my turn raise I fold.

[Brian]

Hi J.R.,

The reason to wait until the Turn to raise is that I am probably *not* going to knock anyone out with the Flop raise, but my Turn raise, assuming a Club doesn't come, *WILL* knock people out. While I risk giving a relatively cheap card that could beat me on the Flop, my opponents will likely call anyways, and while that does not make raising wrong, it also does not increase my chances of winning the hand.

This idea is discussed in detail in Mason's Poker Essays Vol. III. Another advantage to not raising now is that I save myself a small bet when another Club falls on the Turn, which will almost certainly make me have to fold.

-Brian

[J.R.]

I'll go get Poker essays III and read Mason's thoughts.

I would think a flop raise knocks out everybody without a good flush draw or a flush, and these hands will call 2 on the turn if the flop only has one bet put in, so you aren't knocking them out no matter what you do. So there are hands that won't fold regardless how you play it, but the hands you realistically hope to fold on the turn for 2 bets are also the ones that won't hang around for 2 bets on the flop either (pair and overcard, maybe pair and gutshot, perhaps even an open-ended straight draw or a singleton middle club).

My read is also that the player leading into the field has a flush or flush draw (unless its a made hand leading and wanting you to raise to get rid of singleton middle clubs, which is also reasonable and likely if the player is sophisticated), so you may not win the pot by knocking out a singleton club on the turn if the turn is the only place the singleton club will fold because the BB will still beat you if a club falls.

The only way I see waiting for the turn to be better is if BB has no club and a worse hand than yours, there are no big clubs behind you but there are singleton middle clubs that would call 2 on the flop but that will not call 2 on the turn if a non club falls on the turn. My intial reaction is any club good enough to call 2 on the flop with is good enough to call 2 on the turn. (since there were 12 sbs in the pot preflop and at least 3 sbs go into the pot on the flop if you just call the flop and one singleton club overcalls the flop, a turn raise confronts the singleton club with calling 2 big bets with at least 10 big bets in the pot. I can't think of a singleton middle club hand that would call 2 on the flop but won't call 2 on the turn getting at least 10-2 pot odds).

Seems that's where Mason would think I am off, but I'll find out. A flop raise also helps define your hand, while a call indicates weakness and opens the door for a draw or worse made hand to raise the flop and put you in an akward situtation. But now I'll think about it some more. Thanks for the interesting situation.

[Brian]

Flop: A /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, BB bets, I raise, everyone folds back to the BB who re-raises. I call.

Turn: J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bets, I call.

River: Q /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets, I call.

BB has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif .

-Brian