Falling into the river

[Sleepy Weasel]

TGC 1/2 (I don't remember the hand number, so exact cards may be off, but the gist of it is the same...I won't guess at suits, no flush possible)

Hero has QJo in LMP and limps along with 4 others.

Flop is K2K, checked all the way around. Turn is 6, checked around again. River is Q. BB bets, one other caller, and there's 1 player to act behind me. What's the play?

[Brian462]

Easy call for me.

[crockpot]

i say call. there is still a decent chance he was slowplaying a king all the way, and you can easily lose the caller by raising here, or both if the bettor was on a total steal. a fold is pretty unreasonable.

[Sleepy Weasel]

I certainly wasn't thinking of folding. I figured it was pretty likely I had the best hand, so I was planning on betting. I think the original bettor could have just about anything from A high to a king, so I thought I'd raise what was probably the best hand. I think I still like that play, but maybe the caller in between changes things?

I'm confused by your talk about losing players with a raise. Who cares? If my hand is best and there's any chance they'll call a raise, I have to raise right? Or is the point that they won't call unless they beat me? They certainly won't fold a better hand, but I could easily see calls with worse hands.

Is the decision (call vs. raise) here more complicated than deciding if I probably have the best hand?

[crockpot]

yes, it is more complicated. you have to consider the chances they'll actually call the raise, first of all, which was what i was talking about. remember, if you raise and they fold, you gain nothing over calling and may actually lose money if the player behind you was considering calling (not that unusual. in these games the players seem more inclined to call with a hand like ace high if everyone else has called already.)

if you had KQ here, all you would really have to consider was the chances of your raise getting called vs. the chances of an overcall behind you, but here it is certainly not a foregone conclusion that you're winning, even though you probably have the best hand.

i definitely agree that you should have bet the river if it was checked to you, but that is a very different situation. it is not at all strange for a player to check his king in first position twice when he flops trips, but he usually won't check again on the river. this bet will only come from a queen, a slowplay, or a bluff. so use your judgment to decide whether the queen is more likely than the slowplay, and you're willing to lose the overcaller. i wasn't there, so i can't tell you whether your judgment was right.

[Rico Suave]

Sleepyweasel:

I think crockpot is right here about just calling. Here is how I think about it.

I think your hand is good here, but if you raise, the overcaller will almost certainly fold. I doubt he would call 2 bets if he was holding on with a 2,6 ir a small pocket pair. But if you just call, he very well may call 1 bet with any 1 of those hands. So in summary, if you raise, you risk an exta bb to realistically gain 1 more bet from the BB. But if you just call, you do not have to risk the additional bb and may still pick up the extra bb from the lp calling; and there is no chance of you facing a 3-bet by a slowplayed king.

I hope that was somewhat helpful.

--Rico

[Sleepy Weasel]

Ahh! Thank you, I was forgetting about the player behind me, and thought you were talking about the one between the original bettor and myself. Makes sense now, thanks.