playing SB

This situation seems to come up a lot, and I am wondering if my thinking is correct.


Lets say you're playing a 10-20 game with the blinds at 5-10. You are in the small blind and everyone has folded to you, leaving yourself and the BB.


With a poor hand, there is no question that you should just fold it. But I am wondering, when is it a good idea to raise? I know a lot depends on the type of player that the BB is, but I'm talking purely statistically here.


Here is my reasoning: There is $15 in the pot from the blinds, and you'd be putting in another $15 on a raise, giving even pot odds. But that's only if BB folds, in which case you'd win the pot anyway. If he calls, he'd put in $10, making the pot $40. But $15 of that is your own bet, so I'm thinking your pot odds would be $25 to $15, or 5:3. Is this correct?


If it is, I used the website: www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm (http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm)

And any hands with 1 opponent that would win 60% or more would be OK for a raise. Again, am I correct? Thanks.

Suppose 50% of the time the BB folds, you win $10 minus the rake of $1 so you net $9. The other 30% of the time the BB calls and 20% of the time the BB raises. Now if your post flop play is not as good as the BB you need a much bigger edge than a hand that wins 60% of the time when played to the river. Assuming your post flop play is equal to the BB then you can expect when he calls he has a hand nearly as good as yours and when he raises his hand is better.


Now you expect to win every time you raise and he folds but lose at least 60% of the time if not more when you are raised pre-flop and lose 50% of the time when he calls with a hand similiar in strength.


Roughly it seems to me you need a hand that wins nearly 70 to 75% of the time heads up to justify the risk of raising and being out of position for the remainder of the hands.


That is why most people just chop and get on with it. Does anyone else see a flaw in my logic?


Jimbo

"... 50% of the time the BB folds, you win $10 minus the rake of $1 so you net $9 ..."


so what happens to the other $5 that was in the pot?


it's not in your stack any more, so you only get it back by winning it