I've found a leak. Now what?

[jedi]

I've been using Poker Tracker for over 1,500 hands and although I know this isn't a huge sample size, I think I've found a big leak in my game. It's AQo. I've played it 12 times and have lost over $20 with it. Being that I play mostly .25/.50 games, that's a big deal to me. Anyways, now that I've identified that this is a trouble hand, what do I do? Do I stop playing them? Do I stop raising with them (I've raised it about 90% of the time. Maybe I should realize that this isn't a raising hand).

Here's a hand from one of the AQ games.

Cratylus: -- --
jedi_padawan: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif
jmdlcz: -- --
maverickdmb: -- --
barth75: -- --
shagmoan: -- --
rcfrmb: -- --
HoosierTim: -- --
cityplayer: -- --
Chaos_ult: -- --

Pre-flop:

Folded to jedi who raises to $2. Again, should I NOT raise with this hand?

jmdlcz folds. maverickdmb calls.
barth75 folds. shagmoan folds. rcfrmb calls.
HoosierTim folds. cityplayer calls.

Flop (board: 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif):

Top pair, good kicker. I bet out.

cityplayer checks. jedi bets $1.
maverickdmb calls. rcfrmb raises to $2.

Hmmm, now what? I decide to 3-bet it to see if he made 2 pair or a set.

cityplayer folds. jedi re-raises to $3. maverickdmb
calls. rcfrmb calls.

He only called, so I still think I'm ahead. I put him on a weak Ace or a semi-bluff diamond draw.

Turn (board: 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif):

jedi bets $2. maverickdmb calls. rcfrmb
raises to $4. jedi calls. maverickdmb
calls.

Okay, he raised me a 2nd time. I jump into check-call mode (should I fold?)

River (board: 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif):

jedi bets $2. maverickdmb folds. rcfrmb
raises to $4. jedi calls.

Showdown:

rcfrmb shows A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif.
rcfrmb has A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif: two pair, aces and eights.
jedi mucks cards.
(jedi has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif.)

rcfrmb wins $36.50 with two pair, aces and eights.

[Nottom]

AQ is a fine hand to play, but most of the time its still only gonna make top pair and post-flop it needs to be played as such. Aggression is good, but you need to know when you are beat.

Why did you bet the river? You claim to be in check-call mode (which is usually correct) but then you bet intohim on the river. Unless he had two pair that didn't involve the 8, that card didn't change anything. When he raises you again, what do you really expect to be able to beat?

Also you should probably stop running in to AK when you have AQ.

[jedi]

Note to self: Don't post while drunk. You're right. I THOUGHT I was going into check-call mode, but I guess I bet out.

[ QUOTE ]

Why did you bet the river? You claim to be in check-call mode (which is usually correct) but then you bet intohim on the river. Unless he had two pair that didn't involve the 8, that card didn't change anything. When he raises you again, what do you really expect to be able to beat?

Also you should probably stop running in to AK when you have AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MrGrob]

Just asking -- I have found that I don't play worse till I have over 3 beers / equal amount of something else. Just wondering if you play a little drunk too, or not. I have found that I am more willing to "listen to my gut / listen to bets" when I am "feeling a few drinks" then if I am stone cold sober. But I don't really drink at all anymore playing, so maybe it would not be the same now.

I knew a bowler once who, if given the right amount or beer, just would not miss...I have heard that there are some card players that are the same way -- I guess the hard part then, if staying on that edge without falling off....

[rayrns]

Maybe your results aren't as bad for your .25/.5 games.

This hand was played at $1/2 and you lost $13. Giving you a loss of $7 for the 11 hands played at .25/.5. Then it would be to small an example to say you are playing AQ wrong.

[jedi]

Posting messages drunk is different than playing drunk. For some reason I couldn't remember what I did in the hand even though it was right in front of me on the hand history.

[jedi]

Hmmm, good point. I forgot to take that into account. I was moving up to 1/2 to "take a shot" to see how it went. The first session went well, the second didn't. I'm going back down to the .25/.50 and .50/1 games to build the old bankroll up a bit more.

[DrPhysic]

I am so fundamentally conservative that I find I steal blinds and semi-bluff more (usually successfully) after about 2 beers. But it better not exceed one or two.

Doc

[Schneids]

Hi Jedi,
I wouldn't be too concerned about it yet. AQ should still be a raising hand most of the time for you. The key might be getting away from it on the flop/turn etc if you're not getting the right odds to chase with only two over cards.

On one account, I have had AQo 42 times and am only winning .01BB/hand and on another account I've had it 170 times and am winning .31BB/hand with it. In both cases I am raising over 90% of the time with it. You definitely have to keep raising with it. It might take another 25 or 50 times before your stats show you winning much with AQo, but, it should change eventually. I assume you're just running into a cold stretch with it.

[ElSapo]

Hey Jedi... raising AQ is not a leak.

There are, of course, situations where the hand doesn't play. But overall, this is a quality hand. My Pokertracker database, which of late is far from complete, has 294 AQ/AQs hands I've played. I'm raising pre-flop with it almost 3/4 of the time and winning about 0.8 BB/hand with it. Granted, 300 hands isn't huge but you see the point - AQ is a very profitable hand.

As for being cold-called by AK, that happens and there isn't a whole lot you can do about it. Most times AK will three-bet pre-flop but in the passive games quite often they wont. Just be thankful the situation doesn't happen all that often. You really can't lay down your hand in this situation, and once that Ace flops you're basically going to the river.

In your hand, after he raises the turn just check-call the river.

The good news is that you'll be on the AK end of this one just as often, and if you play your hands right you'll win more and lose less in the right spots. It still stings though when your good hands run into better hands.

[GuidoSarducci]

I was under the impression that a hand like AQ isn't very good in a multi-way pot. Considering that almost all limpers will call a raise, is it still a +EV move to raise in late position? I thought the AQ raise in early position was supposed to get people out.

G

[Dov]

AQ is one of the best starting hands you can have. You should usually raise with it except against early position raisers.

The idea is to get everyone to put in their money when you have the best of it. If you believe you have the best hand you should play it aggressively until you have reason to believe otherwise.

The only reason I could think of to not raise, would be to create a small pot. This would enable you to raise the turn and force all of the hands that are still drawing to make a mistake in calling you. You might also get some of them to fold for the double turn bet b/c the pot is small.

(even the party fish have SOME concept of risk-reward)

However, as you mentioned, AQ is not a good multiway hand. You should raise it to define your hand.

[Dov]

Hi Jedi:

I like yout preflop play. I think your flop play is wrong, though. If you have a set, an A flops, and you get 3 bet on the flop, are you going to cap it?

Not me. I'm going to check raise the turn figuring him for AK, AQ, or 2 pair with Ax suited. To me, this is a dream come true. Not only do I have a good hand (trips) with 10 (ususally) nut outs (pair the board, catch my case card), but someone else has made a second best hand to pay me off with.

I think that your raise doesn't get you the information that you are looking for. In fact, it gives away information about your hand.

The turn raise was screaming "I can beat aces". Now what? I think that in any reasonable game you have to give the opponent credit for something, especially if he is a fish. I would fold my AQ here on the turn.

Even if he had capped the flop, what were you going to do on the turn?

If he flopped a set and you catch another A, you have just made a great 2nd best hand to pay him off with.

If he flopped 2 pair, you need a Q, A, or the board to pair.

If he has AK, the only card you can catch is a Q.

The best of these situations is when he holds 2 pair. Since this is a low limit party game, the odds are that you weren't raised on a draw. Now you will have to check-fold the turn if you don't improve, or check-call the turn and river if you do. (Unless you turn or river a monster - then you go back in full force)

AQ and AJ even more so are sometimes tricky hands to play. This is mostly because they seem to be much stronger than they actually are and most people have a hard time believing that this is true until after they have gained some experience with them. (myself included)

Anyway, I hope this helps.

Good Luck