44 underpair

[Brian]

Party 3/6. Dealt 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in MP. EP limps, I limp, folded to SB who completes, BB checks. 4 to the Flop for 4sb.

Flop: 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

All check to me and I bet, only unknown EP calls. 2 to the Turn for 6sb (3bb).

Turn: 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

EP checks, I bet, EP calls. 2 to the River for 5bb.

River: 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

EP bets. Your move? I thought he could be bluffing at least 1 in 6 times here, with the board pairing and the Flush appearing, so I called. Results later.

-Brian

[bunky9590]

Lots of hands beat you there. You bluffed or semi bluffed, and got caught. If you call here its only for future hands not to get known as a folder. You are beat here. If not, he's making a desperation bet. But I think its more than a 1 in 6 bluff. He's probably made the flush.

[Brian]

Hi bunky,

My bet on the Flop was not a semi-bluff. I think that you need to re-define this term for yourself. A semi-bluff is a bet that, if called, does not figure to be the best hand, but has a decent chance of improving. Having only 2 outs means that I do not have a decent chance to improve. It is not a bluff, either. With all of my opponents checking to me, there is a fair chance that I have the best hand on this raggedy board.

-Brian

[1p0kerb0y]

Small pairs tend to get you in trouble sometimes, huh?

[JohnShaft]

I absolutely agree Brian. There's no way the Turn bet is a semi-bluff. It's a bet to get overcards to fold (or to charge draws) for me all the way.

As for the River call. He likely has either:
The Flush
Missed Overcards
Another Med PP (very likely ahead of yours)

So you really only can beat the bluff.
1 in 6 times are you good here? I don't know. It's a close call, especially against a new unknown player.

I think if I'd been folding a bit in this spot I'd call, otherwise I'd fold. (I know he wouldn't have been about to witness your folds, so the value of this logic is diminished).

I just think this one is real close.
But if my games don't really contain many bluffers here I think you can fold.
I wouldn't waste much thought on it either way. It's so borderline.

[ThingDo]

Brian,


What hands will call the flop and the turn and then bet the river as a bluff that you still beat? I would fold this one on the river. If he doesn't bet the river, I'm assuming you were intending to check behind.

[Joe Tall]

I think the river call is ok.

I played a very similar hand this weekend on a 8-high board w/44 and bet it the whole way to have everyone fold on the river. I know this is a little different with someone betting into you on the river but I like the play.

You could easily have an Ace-high bet on the river w/a double-paied board. I lke the overcall.

Peace,
JT

[Homer]

I agree with your play preflop through turn. On the river, I'd probably fold. I don't think you have greater than a 1 in 8 chance of taking it down against most Party 3/6 players.

-- Homer

[WillMagic]

At first I would have said fold, but I think Joe's right that an ace-high might bet here. It's a crying call, but I think it's the right play.

Will

[GuyOnTilt]

I play all streets the same, but occasionally fold preflop. Good river call, IMO. I think you're good here 20% of the time.

GoT

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
You bluffed or semi bluffed, and got caught

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this description is correct. Sometimes a baby pair on a baby-board will hold up and he might just have the best hand.

Peace,
JT

[Brian]

Hi everyone,

Glad to see that the majority agreed with my play for once /images/graemlins/smile.gif ThingDo, as JoeTall pointed out, the board is double-paired, so Ace-high may think he has the best hand. Here are the results:

EP has the unlikely 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif for the full house. I went ahead and marked him as "ultra loose limping calling station".

-Brian

[LetsRock]

There's enough chance that it's a bluff or a Ace high bet to make this a good call. I wouldn't be surprised to win or lose this hand.

[bunky9590]

Maybe i didnt word it correctly, but the point is still somewhat valid.

Hammering away with an underpair, (while not a bad play) is a VERY suseptible hand. He's calling all the way, so I have to think he likes his hand at least a little. Top or middle pair bets you. While A high might think he has the best hand, A high would probably check call the river as well. I would probably bet the flop and check the turn. I'll take a shot at it on the flop and probably would go away on the turn. Maybe a little weak tight, but I can find better situations to put my money in the middle than that one.

[JohnShaft]

Bunk, I really don't know about this one. Don't get me wrong, I don't think folding is terrible as such, I just think that a bet on the Turn should be more regular than a check. I think I'd bet here close to 80%.

He's calling all the way?
You don't really no that. How many bad opponents don't really give a [censored] if you bet on the flop and will only fold to a Turn bet? Particularly if they have overcards.

I bet because he might have overcards and there's no way I'm regularly giving a 6 outer a free chance to win the pot here. I'm also not giving the flush draw (or some kind of straight draw) a free card.

One question for you.
If you check the Turn are you calling the River?

[bunky9590]

If i check the turn, I fold the river.
I'm basically giving up on the hand on the turn.

In this situation, I don't want to put good money in after bad.

I'll just agree that we disagree.

I have played it like this in the past against someone that I've had a great read on, that I am super sure will fold the turn. Obviously, we all need to mix up our play and I would make that play on this hand maybe 1 out of 10. Just my style. I can find better spots to assert myself than this one.

I don't think the way he played is is necessarily bad or -EV. I just choose not to get involved with these types of hands on a regualr basis unless I have good control over the table.

Now in higher limits, where nobody is likely to have a piece of that flop, that's a different story.

[JohnShaft]

Checking the Turn folding the River? Hmmm. I'd have to be pretty sure my opponent wasn't going to call the flop with overcards and bluff me on the river with them, or a busted draw (when I've basically induced it).
So mostly I'd be calling the River. Which means instead I'd be betting the Turn and checking the River.

[ QUOTE ]
Now in higher limits, where nobody is likely to have a piece of that flop, that's a different story.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I very much agree with this. The Turn play all depends on how likely someone is to have hit *something* on that flop, their chance of check-calling with it, and how likely they'd call the flop with overcards.
At low limits I agree there's a pretty fair chance any of them are the case.

[bunky9590]

Yeah John, I see your point with the turn bet and river check and it does have merit.

I have just found that I get called down by top pair weak kicker and middle pair way too often in LL for that move to be +EV.

6-12 and up, hammer away baby!

[ThingDo]

Is the possibility of him betting A-high here high or good enough to make a river call worth it? For some weird reason I didn't factor in A-high which could be possible because it is double paired. I didn't notice... anyway... let me know