i think i might get check-raised; i bet anyway.

[elysium]

average 10-20 nothing out of the ordinary in this particular hand.

i'm in the CO-1 with AsTs and call two limpers. the limper on my immediate right is an ok player who i have a good read on. the CO and button are indicating that they're coming in, and me thinks the button will raise.

the button is good solid.

everyone calls for a 7-way. the flop comes T55 with two diamonds. they check, i bet, all call. i'm starting not to like this.

the turn; 9h

i see that only two calling stations will call if i bet when checked to, and pfft, i telegraphed a little before the action got to me, and my immediate right sees that if he checks i will bet. and he knows that if i bet at least 2 others will call, maybe three others.

dang.

and i peek left again, and they're screaming 'free-card, free-card!'

well, i'm 70% sure my RHO will check-raise, but i'm 100% sure that my left wants a free one. without hesitating, i bet-out powerfully; fold, fold, fold, call, call, raise, fold, call, call. how did you like my play?

[Joe Tall]

I have a question for you ely, what is your RHO check-raising with? Did he limp w/T9? Turn a full house? How about A5?

Why not take the free card in improve if you will, if you know the c/r is coming? The only reason I can see why you would bet here is that you have a strong enough hand to re-raise, and you don't. Granted you still have a bet for value, yet, you're likely could be behind many hands at this point.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[elysium]

hi joe
because i wasn't 100% sure (it's not as easy as it seems to tell whether someone is checking or check-bluffing), and because i knew that at least 2 opponents would call my bet, and further knew that he would never check-raise a field this large without at least trips, meaning that this particular check-raise meant a good chance that he had a boat; and furthermore that i could be wrong about his intentions, although i will say this, 'boy did he ever look like he was check-bluffing', i decided that rather than calling his bet on the river and getting trapped by a possible completed, i would find out right now. surely he wouldn't check-raise into a field of 3 or more opponents who he knows will call unless he possibly has the boat. i bet because i could easily fold if raised. had i been last to act in this hand, with him on my immediate right, of course then i would have checked. why? because now i'm not so sure that if i bet there will be more than one over-caller, and therefore cannot release my hand when he check-raises. he might then be check-raising with a weaker kicker figuring me for a draw; but that wasn't the case here.

the main point is that i bet because i could easily fold if check-raised. my bet also was made to force the draws out and to get a call from the calling stations. my assessment of the situation was that my bet was fatally flawed, however, there was some chance that i was wrong, and i bet-out 'i'm wrong, he won't check-raise'. well, to make a long story short, i was right.

one more point here; mason says that tells often don't matter because even if you pick up on a tell, you will act in the same way anyway. why? because of the action or how a hand is developing. if tells had the final say, we'd win every time. but tells are important because they speed your thought process. i was carefully thinking about laying it down after i bet-out and before the action got to my RHO. so i didn't think about it a lot. when he raised i just "pffft....i missed", and casually mucked without a lot of thought because the tell helped me to contemplate this very thing happening well before hand.

[Kenshin]

I understand the bet if you anticipate that the forthcoming raise would knock out additional players; however, in this instance you neither expected nor realized any additional folding due to the 2 bets. What was the logic that governed your bet?

[Kenshin]

A day late a dollar short

[Ulysses]

Raise pre-flop.

[ACPlayer]

It is usually a mistake to give a free card to someone who is drawing to beat you even if there is a significant chance you are betting with a second best hand as long as there is a significant chance that you actually have the best hand.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I missed that.

Peace,
JT

[elysium]

hi ulysses
so you see that when the button doesn't raise as i think he will, it leads me to later estimate the odds against a check-raise as about 30%. well actually, i knew 100% that he would check-raise. but my read failing me where the button was concerned caused me to second guess the RHO check-raise.

i wanted the button to raise, allowing me to 3 bet. what a pot it would have been. maybe then i would have won.