Please review my game play

What do you think of the following play. Very tight game; Im on the button holding AxS. Middle position raise, call, raise, three small bets to me, I call hoping one of the Blinds will also call, I need as much money in the pot as possible since I'm drawing and my guess is everyone else is holding big pairs. BB kills it everyone calls. What do you think of playing this hand here, obviously I have to fold if I don't flop at least 2 to my suit, so it cost me 4 small bets to find out.

Calling is horrible, it's not even close.

So what if I capped it ?

I think you have to fold here. Call and raise are both bad. The problem is your "implied odds" are gone. The amount you make after the flop is about the same whether it cost 1 sb or 3 sb.

You will catch 2 to a flush about 1 in 8 flops, and I think you will complete a flush about 1 in 20 times (I am not sure that is exact, but it is close). You simply cannot make back 3 small bets all the times you miss the few times you hit. If it was just 1 bet to you, it is a posible call, but not for 3.


Treefrog

You'll flop a 4 flush about once every 9 times and complete it about once every 26 times.


Here's the flop calculation:


11/50 * 10/49 * 39/48 * 3 = 0.109438776


The reasoning is, there are 11 flush cards out of 50 for the first card, then 10 flush cards out of 49 for the second, and then 39 non-flush cards remaining for the third. You multiply by 3 because you don't care if the two flush cards come first and second, first and third, or second and third.


The post flop calculation is:


1 - (38/47 * 37/46) = 0.349676226


Multiplying the two together comes out to, 0.038268138, which is about 1 in 26 times.


Flopping a flush occurs almost 1 in 100 times.


11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 = 0.008418367


Summing together gives 0.038268138 + 0.008418367 = 0.046686505, which is about 1 in 21 times, very close to what you said.


Of course you won't win the pot every time you get a flush, so the flush equity would be lower than this.

just to be completely accurate, given the way this guy plays you can not discount the runner runner flush. This should add another ~0.6% to his chances of making the flush

When would you ever play AxS; according to the numbers even with 10 limpers it would never really be correct?

I think if most players decided to never play A-little suited they would be giving up only a little EV, and depending on the opponents may save some $ in the long run. Thinking about this has me leaning toward dumping these more, just to bring down my varience. I play these all the time, but I am a still recovering Loose-Aggressive...


On the other hand, with opponents who will pay you off when you catch the flush, but not drive you out with raises while you are drawing (loose-passives) there is probably some value in Axs. With maybe 5 or 6 callers, this could be +EV. If you can bet or raise to get a free card on the turn when you flop your draw even better.


The big -EV danger (for me) is getting tied on when an ace flops, or you pair your crappy kicker, and just one of your suit flops. I personally waste money chasing these at times. Others are probably more disciplined than me.


Treefrog