Would anyone muck KK after this flop?

[B-Man]

Level 2 of the weekly 4:00 $200+15 NL tourney on Party. Thanks to getting AA, 99 and AQ level one, I have played 3 hands and tripled my starting stack to 3,000. The player on my left is the chip leader--he has 4,200. He seems to be a VERY loose caller preflop, then very aggressive on and after the flop.

I am dealt KK UTG+2.

Blinds are 10-20, I raise to 90. Chip leader calls, BB calls.

Flop is 5-6-5 rainbow.

I bet 200 (into a pot of 280).

Chip leader raises to 1,000.

BB folds.

He has me beat if he has AA, 66 or any 5. However, this guy could easily have something like A-6, 67, 78, a pair smaller than kings, or who knows. Or he could have A-5, as he has showed down A-x several times.

What would you do?

Results below.

[B-Man]

I raised all-in. He called. He had A-5 (ouch!), and to add insult to injury, and Ace came on the turn.

In hindsight, if I go all-in, he is probably only going to call with a hand that has me beat. So the all-in raise may not have been the greatest move. However, I can't see raising less than all-in, and I'm not sure what calling gets me, because what am I hoping to see on the turn, other than a king? If I call and check the turn, he is surely going to bet, and at that point I am probably committed with what very well may still be the best hand. I can't see folding KK here when it is very likely the best hand.

Was there any way to get away from this hand? Can I really muck KK to his raise on the flop?

[wontons]

not raising more preflop....NL is a game where people play to ruin monster hands they play hands such as JTs , 76s and alot in between to avoid your great hands from being busted by these I suggest raising more prefop.

[Piiop]

The pre-flop raise was completely fine. UTG+2 and open-raises 4.5x the BB, nothing wrong there at all - especially if this had been your standard raise for those other hands.

You're definitely on a tough spot on this one. The main two things I would consider is 1 - your opponents hand and 2 - your current tournament situation.

You said this guy has shown down A-x. Also any 5 or 66 has you beat. It is very possible for him to be holding one of these hands thats beating you.

More importantly, look at your tournament situation. Even without the 290 you've put into this pot, it looks like your still well above the average stack. If you fold, you will have a great chance at getting to that money. It is a tough one to laydown, but I think you would have to do it.

Also, to the previous poster, I hope to see these people who play hands like 67s and JTs to a raise because they "play to ruin monster hands". This makes no sense and anyone who does this will be losing a lot of money.

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
Also, to the previous poster, I hope to see these people who play hands like 67s and JTs to a raise because they "play to ruin monster hands". This makes no sense and anyone who does this will be losing a lot of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think they will be losing a lot of money.. he's not talking about playing trash to big raises, but playing them to small raises. if a guy with AA is going to raise 5x the big blind, depending on how deep the money is, i would easily call with hands like JTs, 67s.. the key is occasionally, to mix up your play.

[WalleyeJason]

[ QUOTE ]
Was there any way to get away from this hand? Can I really muck KK to his raise on the flop?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. Tough to actually do.

I'm not sure about risking my whole stack this early in the tournament w/o the nuts.

[PlayerA]

Moreover, those hands are very easy to get away from when they miss. AA is going to lose alot more when 67s hits than vice versa.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

[ QUOTE ]
In hindsight, if I go all-in, he is probably only going to call with a hand that has me beat. So the all-in raise may not have been the greatest move.

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly.

[ QUOTE ]
However, I can't see raising less than all-in, and I'm not sure what calling gets me, because what am I hoping to see on the turn, other than a king? If I call and check the turn, he is surely going to bet, and at that point I am probably committed with what very well may still be the best hand. I can't see folding KK here when it is very likely the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling gets you full value for all those pots where he's bluffing.

You're right about raising. If he's behind, especially if he's bluffing with nothing, he'll fold. However, if you flat call, he will give you credit for a real hand (if he's got any brains at all), but that doesn't mean your real hand has to beat a premium pair, or that you won't lay it down if he bluffs again by betting you all-in. Thus, the reason to call here is to induce further bluffs on the turn and river.

[ QUOTE ]
Was there any way to get away from this hand? Can I really muck KK to his raise on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
Given your description of the player, you probably can't get away from this hand.

However, when you say he was showing down a lot of Ax hands and such, and had made bets/raises on previous hands where with this board he could just have 6x or a medium pair, how big were those bets/raises? Were they against somebody who pegged himself as having a good hand preflop? Were they against somebody who raised preflop and bet the flop? Even if he's been seen bluffing, has he been seen bluffing in a spot like this, or for this much of his stack? If not, that makes a huge difference in the likelihood that he's bluffing (or mistakenly value-betting) this time.

It is possible that the information available to you was such that you should've folded. However, given this is online, and given what you've said so far, it seems unlikely that you should've folded.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Greg (FossilMan)]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure about risking my whole stack this early in the tournament w/o the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate this statement.

This early in the tournament is exactly the time to not worry about going broke. You are very far from the money, and the equity of your stack is 100% correlated with it's size. As such, you should play a lot like a cash game. If you know enough to know a play is significantly +EV in terms of chip count, you should make it, whether it breaks you or not.

It is LATE in the tourney where the chips you win aren't worth as much as the same number of chips if you lose. That's the time to take less risk. Not now.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Greg (FossilMan)]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, to the previous poster, I hope to see these people who play hands like 67s and JTs to a raise because they "play to ruin monster hands". This makes no sense and anyone who does this will be losing a lot of money.

[/ QUOTE ]
Funny, because when the stacks are deep (or in cash PL/NL games, where the stacks are always deep), that's how I make most of my profit. I raise and/or call raises with suited connectors, suited one-gappers, small pairs, suited As, and such. These are great hands for deep stack big bet poker, ESPECIALLY when your opponent is of the opinion that you shouldn't play for raises with these hands, and won't give you credit for holding one of them.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Greg,

The strategy of calling a raise with 76s works well in a cash game where your stakes can be replenished and the call only represents 1-5% of your total stack, but I don't think you would advocate calling a 4xBB open raise with 76s when the blinds are 50/100 and you have T2500 in chips.

[Grivan]

In the situation at hand the blinds are 10-20 and they have stacks over 3000. I think calling off 90 chips in order to win 3000 is almost certainly worth it.

[WalleyeJason]

Yes I see what you are saying and it makes sense to me.

I guess what I'm thinking is, I'd rather wait an pick my spots where I want to do battle. I hate going out of a tournament early.

I appreciate you pointing a better poit of view. I still have alot to learn.

Thanks
WJ

[Boris]

I havnt' looked at the results.

I would pay off like a slot machine in this instance.

[curtains]

raising allin is not so terrible.....lots of stars players cant fold overpair in that situation no matter what. what if he has 77-TT and a queen or an ace comes or something like this....I basically had same situation on flop of 632 in that tournament it was clear the guy had no intention of laying down his A6 no matter what I did on the flop.
Also there is no way in hell I would fold this hand in this exact situation. Also reasonably large % of players would wait till turn to pull trigger with a big hand. Im assuming he had a big hand, but havent read results yet....wouldnt have folded anyway though.
One big mistake is to give random online players any respect, especially in the weekly $200 where tons of people get in from satellites. The competition IMO is incredibly weak, with some people who have basically no clue wahts going on at all. What you see when you see QQ in front of you is what some of these players see when they aare dealt A9o.

[Guy McSucker]

I don't think you would advocate calling a 4xBB open raise with 76s when the blinds are 50/100 and you have T2500 in chips.

Nor do I. Greg said "when the stacks are deep". 25 big blinds does not qualify as deep.

Guy.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

[ QUOTE ]
The strategy of calling a raise with 76s works well in a cash game where your stakes can be replenished and the call only represents 1-5% of your total stack, but I don't think you would advocate calling a 4xBB open raise with 76s when the blinds are 50/100 and you have T2500 in chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I did specify a deep stack.

And, where are you pulling those numbers from? For the original hand in this thread, the raise was to T90 from a stack of T3000, and called by somebody with more than T3000. That's only 3% of the effective money for the caller, so he's getting a potential payoff of about 33:1.

Or, as you put it, this is well within the 1-5% range you specify.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[crockpot]

i would definitely consider this fold, largely because it's a tournament and you don't want to put a lot of chips into the pot when you are in danger of losing them. (if you call now, you will be put all-in on the turn unless he is on a stone bluff AND gives up on it.)

by the way, you should have either raised more preflop or perhaps limp-reraised if the table was aggressive.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
by the way, you should have either raised more preflop or perhaps limp-reraised if the table was aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not the first person who has said that, but I completely disagree. I open-raised to 4.5X the BB from early position. Why would you suggest raising more, and how much?

As for limp-re-raising, the player on my left was a very loose caller pre-flop. I didn't want him to limp after me, thus encouring others to limp and end up with a lot of players seeing the flop.