Poor Guy

I spent some time last week with a professional poker player. Yes, he makes a living entirely from playing poker, and a comfortable living at that.


He has health insurance (not cheap for a self-employed gambler), drives a new Volkswagon Passat, golfs in his spare time, and spends incredible amounts of money on creature comforts. His personal monthly burn rate compared to a normal person is like a 1999 dot com startup compared to a mom 'n pop grocery.


I always wondered how someone could do so well just by playing poker, but last time we spoke he cleared it up for me real good.


Here's a snippet of a conversation we had.


"Nate, I just recently broke out of a horrendous bad run. I ran terrible for the last half of 2001. You wouldn't believe the beats I took over and over. It was a nightmare."


"But you're winning again now and you survived the cold streak?"


"Yeah. It was the worst run of cards I've had in my life. Ever. I've never had a run that even came close to being this bad. But I've been back on track the last few months."


"Wow, how much did you lose?"


"I won $30,000".


I'm not making this up.


natedogg

nate-web@thegrovers.com

pure curiosity, what limits does he play? no limit and pot limit im guessing..

You may not be making this up but I wonder if he is. I am with mike in guessing that this guy must be playing no limit and other games where the long run just aint so long. Otherwise this story seems nearly impossible.


Kris

6*4*7*8 ~= 1400*(30 +- 20) = 14k - 70k.


so if the guys used to running good or whatever he could be expecting double that(30k) during a 'flat' period.


brad

excellent player.

never run so bad.

6 month result: 30k

just say ~1000 hours and sqrt(1000)~=33.


95% range =

1*1000 +- (2)(8)(sqrt(1000)) ~=

1000 +- 500 ~=

+500 to +1500 big bets.

500 big bets = 30k,

so a big bet must be ~ 60.

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but lets say hes just real good.


95% range =

.9*1000 +- (2)(10)(sqrt(1000)) ~=

900 +- 660 ~=

+240 to +1560 big bets.

240 big bets = 30k,

so a big bet must be ~ 120.

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but lets say the games are really good

and hes an excellent player.


95% range =

1.2*1000 +- (2)(12)(sqrt(1000)) ~=

1200 +- 800 ~=

+400 to +2000 big bets.

400 big bets = 30k,

so a big bet must be ~ 80.


or


95% range =

1.2*1000 +- (2)(8)(sqrt(1000)) ~=

1200 +- 500 ~=

+700 to +1700 big bets.

700 big bets = 30k,

so a big bet must be ~ 40.

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thats pretty amazing, but i wonder how long he would have to

have played before you would have to use 99%. (1st example)


99% range =

1*1000 +- (3)(8)(sqrt(1000)) ~=

1000 +- 800 ~=

+200 to +1800 big bets.

200 big bets = 30k,

so a big bet must be ~ 150, as opposed to 60 at 95%.

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so he could really play at any mid limit given your description.


brad