Hand against Kathy Liebert

[M.B.E.]

In a $540 NLHE supersatellite at Bellagio a few days ago, we were down to three tables. The top two finishers would get a seat in the $10,000 championship event, with third place getting a few thousand in cash.

Blinds are 100/200, ante 25, and I have T1600. It's folded to me in the small blind with J-T. Kathy Liebert is in the big blind with a huge stack -- almost 20K. She's the current chip leader (and in fact went on to win one of the seats; the other went to Carlos Mortenson). As I'm considering whether to move in, she says (without having looked at her cards) "if I have 9-8 I'm calling"; the joke was that she had just taken a big pot with 9-8. I throw in 100 and she checks. With the antes, there's 575 in the pot.

FLOP: K-9-5 rainbow. I have a gutshot and check; she checks.

TURN: K-9-5-8. I now have an openender. What's my play?

[Nottom]

I think you have to bet ... the question is how much. You only have about 1400 left after posting and completing the blind so a pot sized bet is almost half your stack. I think I would go ahead and push all-in with your likely 10-outer.

I might even smile and say something like. "If you've got 98 I might be in trouble /images/graemlins/wink.gif"

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Preflop, I prefer to move all-in here. Kathy is a top notch player, and she is not calling here just because she's a chip leader. If you were moving all-in at bubble time for less than 10% of her stack, THEN she might call with a weak hand. Here, this far from the money, she is not going to throw away chips unless she thinks it is a +EV play. That means she's going to throw away smaller pairs most of the time, certainly hands like weak Q high and K high; probably most or all of her weak A high hands, and probably even good Q and K high hands. In fact, I think she would likely call with only pairs about 77 and up, AT or better, and KQ. She might call with a few more hands than that, but not many.

So, raising all-in preflop is a +EV play. Calling preflop is also +EV given your pot and implied odds, but only if she won't steal raise against your call. If her raises preflop are only with good hands, where your fold will be correct, then your limp is +EV. If she is also going to sometimes raise you off the pot with suited connectors and such, then your limp is going to lose chips. (And you will fold if she raises after you limp, right?)

It is my guess that she will play pretty well against you postflop, correctly calling and folding to most of your bets, and occasionally bluffing you off the best hand as well. I don't think you'll have much edge, if any, postflop; especially given that she has position.

The preflop EV of a call will usually be positive, but I think the all-in raise is more positive.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I can't see not raising before the flop here.

As you played it, I would probably move in or at least bet the pot, but if you get called you're probably sunk.

al

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop, I prefer to move all-in here. Kathy is a top notch player, and she is not calling here just because she's a chip leader. If you were moving all-in at bubble time for less than 10% of her stack, THEN she might call with a weak hand. Here, this far from the money, she is not going to throw away chips unless she thinks it is a +EV play. That means she's going to throw away smaller pairs most of the time, certainly hands like weak Q high and K high; probably most or all of her weak A high hands, and probably even good Q and K high hands. In fact, I think she would likely call with only pairs about 77 and up, AT or better, and KQ. She might call with a few more hands than that, but not many.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm. At the time I assumed that if I moved in she would call with many hands, including most that beat my JT and a few others. I didn't want to risk all my chips preflop on JT, when all I stood to win was 500. Of course if she had raised after my limp I would have folded.

Looking at it from her perspective, whether calling my all-in is +EV depends on what she thinks my raising standards are. I thought that she thought my all-in raising standards would be fairly loose, hence with the pot odds of 1.6-to-1 or whatever she could call fairly liberally.

[M.B.E.]

I moved in on the turn. She called with K5 (flopped two pair). I missed my straight and was eliminated.

Question: should her check on the flop have made me suspicious of a big hand?