Believe in yourself or not?

[Poker Jon]

Just left a Stars tourney. 619 runners. Approx 170 left top money is really at the final 18. ABout 2 hours through and I have T5700.

I am in middle position. Hero is in the seat to the left of me with about T7000. We are the two biggest stacks at the table.

Blinds are 100/200 I think.

I pick up 99.

Our hero raises to 1600. Now I sit and think. We have been at the table for a while, seems quite tight, but has made a couple of loose plays. I don't think he has AA or KK as he wouldnt have raised 8xBB IMO.

I decided to put him on a small pair lower than my 99' with the raise indicating he doesnt want high cards calling. After thinking for a bit, I push my stack all in. Hero then thinks for a bit and calls with QQ.

I go out.

I would normally fold 99 in this spot, but I felt I had a read on him. I was wrong and went out.

I know in poker you are supposed to play your opponents cards and not yours (to some extent). I also think that if our hero has 1010, jj it is a difficult call. QQ marginal.

How many of you guys/gals, if you thought you had a read on someone would play on that read??

I am happy with the way I played the hand as I didn't think calling was an option.

I suppose some opinions on the play would be helpful, but would you do the same thing in the same position with the same read, or would you wait for a better spot?

[gavrilo]

This hits the muck 100% of the time for me against the player and situation you described.

You are risking your whole stack first and foremost against a "tight" player who has just raised 8xBB with 99.
Raising all-in is not good because..
A) you don't dominate many hands except lower PP's, which your opponent isn't going to call your raise with anyway.
B) If your opponent has AK or a higher PP, it's a coinflip or you are dominated.
I just don't see any value here in the all-in raise.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Your play aside, you violated one of the most important rules in tournaments: don't get into a confrontation with a big stack if you don't have to. Had he been the 5th biggest at the table, I MAY have done what you did. But with him being the biggest stack, and bigger than your BIG stack, I would have ditched it.

al

[Martin Aigner]

Jon,

I would have raised myself in MP being a large stack. If hero comes over the top, I fold.

Best regards

Martin Aigner

[Poker Jon]

Cheers for your replies guys.

I know my play wasnt great (anything but in fact).

I suppose the point I was trying make was, that I put my opponent on cards and I tried to play with that read/feeling/sheer stupidity.

I felt that if my opponent would have had AK they would have folded, so the only hands I was going to be called with were probably AA, KK or QQ (and I had ruled out AA and KK) and a possible call with JJ, 1010.

I am fine that I played the hand wrong, but I had a feeling. And it was wrong ;-)

[Martin Aigner]

Jon,

you had a read on your opponent, and you went with it. Don´t bother you beccause of that.

If you can single out AA and KK and think that you opponent folds JJ and TT and AK, that your play was clearly +EV.

Best regards

Martin Aigner