40-80 AQo what should i do on the river here?

[mike l.]

i have AcQh in the cutoff in a good 40-80 game. there is an early raiser and he plays a bit on the loose side (limp utg w/ KTo, openraise early w/ 66, etc) and can be aggressive. i 3 bet and everyone else folds. he calls. heads up.

the flop is Ah Qd 8s. he checks, i check.

the turn is 4s. he checks, i raise, he checkraises, i 3 bet, he calls.

the river is 3s. he checks, i bet, he checkraises. what's my play?

[elysium]

hi mike
well, the flop check-down.....i can't advise you on that one. i would bet it of course, but i'm not too knowelgeable about flop check-downs under these conditions.

in my opinion, however, i think you'll need to be very careful about how you are perceived by your opponents. in other words, you paint the picture, whether deliberately or not, i can't tell you, that you are a player who bets when he doesn't have it, and who checks when he does. of course in a future hand, you'll want to check a weak holding that can improve, and you will want to bet a monster strongly.

well, he doesn't have the nuts, but he's betting like he does, so he appears to be representing rather than betting. knowing a little about your playing style, i think you should reraise. if he was anywhere in this thing, he would have come out betting on the river. i think you have this one.

[andyfox]

I wouldn't raise because I can't imagine him folding a better hand and he may well fold a worse one with the 3rd spade hitting the board. I wouldn't fold because the pot is too big and I have top two. Ergo I call.

[Philuva]

I would call here 90% of the time. Only if I had a strong read on the player being aggressive with medium strangth hands would I 3-bet. I would never fold.

[mike l.]

"well, he doesn't have the nuts"

that's interesting you say that because that's exactly what he had. he had AsTs for the rivered nut flush.

i think i couldve laid my hand down because i represent top two minimum, set possible when i check the flop and 3 bet the turn. so he cant checkraise me on the river with anything i beat.

[skp]

"so he cant checkraise me on the river with anything i beat."

True. But this is because he knows that you will call. But if you fold now, he will know that you don't always call. Therefore, your statement quoted above will no longer hold true.

It's a vicious circle. Better to pay off and ensure that his future river checkraises are restricted to the times when he has the goods and as we all know, it's hard to find the "goods" in this game.