crockpot
12-12-2003, 11:29 AM
this essay and more can be found at my website's advanced poker strategy essays section.
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Playing Overcards in Hold 'em
This essay is designed to show the dangers of calling a bet with just overcards in hold 'em, and exposes an important point about considering whether your "outs" will actually win the pot for you.
Dominated hands - a review
As you should know by now, a dominated hand in hold 'em is a hand that performs very poorly against another hand because if it hits help on the board, another hand will hit even better help. An example is A-6 offsuit. If an ace flops, you will often run into an ace with a better kicker, and if you do have the best hand, you will get little action on it. Thus this hand is routinely folded preflop, as your only real hope for winning a big pot is to flop A-6-x.
Technically, 'dominated hand' means that the hand has three or fewer outs against another hand. For example, A-J offsuit is dominated by A-Q since your only outs in the deck (aside from a miracle straight or flush) are the three jacks. Preflop, the dominated hand will only win about 25-30% of these pots, and in multiway pots you may be in even worse shape. (Imagine the nightmare if you hold K-Jo against A-J and A-K.) Thus, good players realize that calling raises with hands like A-Jo or K-Jo is extremely dangerous and very rarely correct. (This is also a reason why you should avoid playing K-Jo and A-Jo in early position: if you knew the pot was going to be raised, you would not want to play the hand in the first place, plus you are out of position for the rest of the hand.)
When the tables are turned
But after the flop, the situation often reverses. Say you have that same A-Q against A-J, but the flop comes J-9-4. Now it is you that has only three outs, and you only have two cards to hit them, rather than five. Your hand has gone from the dominating to the dominated.
Naturally, with three outs, your chances of winning the pot do not justify calling a bet unless the pot is huge, and if the pot is huge, it means a lot of players have paid a lot of bets to see the flop, which means you may not have any outs at all. (Example: with your A-Q, you are up against A-J and Q-Q. Now you need a miracle to win the pot.)
How this relates to hold 'em
Say you raise with A-K preflop and get two or three callers. The flop comes something like, oh, J-9-4, and someone bets. What do you do?
Most players routinely call here, but an advanced player will consider the situation. On the surface you appear to have six outs, with any ace or king. But do you really? If someone called a raise with a hand that has made a pair, it is certainly fairly likely that his kicker is an ace or king. You will see plenty of players calling raises with hands like A-J or K-9, even though you know this is not correct. In this case, you have three outs. Furthermore, a king completes an open-ended straight draw if someone has Q-T, and if an opponent called your raise with a hand like J-9 or 4-4, you are drawing virtually dead.
In this situation, you must decide right now - is there a reasonable chance I hold the best hand with ace-king high? If the answer is yes, and it rarely is, raise to thin the field. Do not assume you have the best hand unless you have good reason to do so (i.e. the bettor loves to bet into the pre-flop raiser as a bluff.) If it is not, which will be the case 90% of the time, fold now. You do not have enough chance to improve to justify continuing in the pot, and loose calls add up to a lot of losses at the end of the month. The typical player takes an unimproved A-K or A-Q way too far in a hold 'em game.
A dangerous idea
David Sklansky correctly states in The Theory of Poker that once a pot becomes big, you must play in a manner that maximizes your chances of winning the pot. This is great advice and an integral part of every expert's game. However, many beginners assume that by this advice, when you raise preflop with A-K and get seven callers, and the flop is ragged, you must bet and raise the flop like a maniac to try to maximize your chances of winning if you hit one of your outs.
Let's analyze this advice. As Bob Ciaffone writes in Middle Limit Holdem Poker, in order for this play to be correct, all of the following must happen:
- Your hand improves
- Your improvement makes your hand better than the hand that is currently best
- The hand that folded to your flop aggression would have improved to an even better hand than yours, at the same time you improve
- No one else improves to beat your new hand
For those of you who are not mathematically inclined, when you multiply a bunch of small probabilities like this, you get an extremely small total probability. From experience, I can tell you that players who call a raise preflop on K-7 do not fold for two bets when the flop comes 9-7-3. Thus, you are not improving your chances of winning the pot with a raise; you are simply putting more money in the pot when you know you do not have the best hand.
What does this add up to? Raising with overcards to improve your chances of winning a big pot is virtually never correct in hold 'em. Don't do it.
What if it is checked to you?
If you raise with A-K or A-Q, the flop is ragged, and it is checked to you and you have only two or three opponents, consider betting. You may win the pot right away, and you may have the best hand even if you are called. However, don't indiscriminately bet the turn and river. If someone called on the flop with a small pair, he intends to call you down, hoping you raised on a hand like A-K or A-Q and missed, so don't put more money into the pot hoping he will fold.
With more opponents than this, don't venture a bet. It is better to try for a free card to make top pair on the turn.
A caution
As you move up to higher-limit games against tougher opponents, you will find that they try to put a lot of tricky moves on you, including betting into the preflop raiser as a bluff. Against these opponents, you must attempt to get a better read on their tendencies and react accordingly. However, against weaker opponents at lower limits, or in multiway pots, you should fold overcards for all the reasons given in this essay. The chances that you are beaten and far behind are too great, unless the pot is very big.
The bottom line
Hands that were way ahead preflop, often are way behind on the flop. There is no reason to throw money into the pot just because you had a good hand before the flop. If the pot is not big, you probably don't have enough outs to continue in the pot, so get out now and minimize your losses.
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Playing Overcards in Hold 'em
This essay is designed to show the dangers of calling a bet with just overcards in hold 'em, and exposes an important point about considering whether your "outs" will actually win the pot for you.
Dominated hands - a review
As you should know by now, a dominated hand in hold 'em is a hand that performs very poorly against another hand because if it hits help on the board, another hand will hit even better help. An example is A-6 offsuit. If an ace flops, you will often run into an ace with a better kicker, and if you do have the best hand, you will get little action on it. Thus this hand is routinely folded preflop, as your only real hope for winning a big pot is to flop A-6-x.
Technically, 'dominated hand' means that the hand has three or fewer outs against another hand. For example, A-J offsuit is dominated by A-Q since your only outs in the deck (aside from a miracle straight or flush) are the three jacks. Preflop, the dominated hand will only win about 25-30% of these pots, and in multiway pots you may be in even worse shape. (Imagine the nightmare if you hold K-Jo against A-J and A-K.) Thus, good players realize that calling raises with hands like A-Jo or K-Jo is extremely dangerous and very rarely correct. (This is also a reason why you should avoid playing K-Jo and A-Jo in early position: if you knew the pot was going to be raised, you would not want to play the hand in the first place, plus you are out of position for the rest of the hand.)
When the tables are turned
But after the flop, the situation often reverses. Say you have that same A-Q against A-J, but the flop comes J-9-4. Now it is you that has only three outs, and you only have two cards to hit them, rather than five. Your hand has gone from the dominating to the dominated.
Naturally, with three outs, your chances of winning the pot do not justify calling a bet unless the pot is huge, and if the pot is huge, it means a lot of players have paid a lot of bets to see the flop, which means you may not have any outs at all. (Example: with your A-Q, you are up against A-J and Q-Q. Now you need a miracle to win the pot.)
How this relates to hold 'em
Say you raise with A-K preflop and get two or three callers. The flop comes something like, oh, J-9-4, and someone bets. What do you do?
Most players routinely call here, but an advanced player will consider the situation. On the surface you appear to have six outs, with any ace or king. But do you really? If someone called a raise with a hand that has made a pair, it is certainly fairly likely that his kicker is an ace or king. You will see plenty of players calling raises with hands like A-J or K-9, even though you know this is not correct. In this case, you have three outs. Furthermore, a king completes an open-ended straight draw if someone has Q-T, and if an opponent called your raise with a hand like J-9 or 4-4, you are drawing virtually dead.
In this situation, you must decide right now - is there a reasonable chance I hold the best hand with ace-king high? If the answer is yes, and it rarely is, raise to thin the field. Do not assume you have the best hand unless you have good reason to do so (i.e. the bettor loves to bet into the pre-flop raiser as a bluff.) If it is not, which will be the case 90% of the time, fold now. You do not have enough chance to improve to justify continuing in the pot, and loose calls add up to a lot of losses at the end of the month. The typical player takes an unimproved A-K or A-Q way too far in a hold 'em game.
A dangerous idea
David Sklansky correctly states in The Theory of Poker that once a pot becomes big, you must play in a manner that maximizes your chances of winning the pot. This is great advice and an integral part of every expert's game. However, many beginners assume that by this advice, when you raise preflop with A-K and get seven callers, and the flop is ragged, you must bet and raise the flop like a maniac to try to maximize your chances of winning if you hit one of your outs.
Let's analyze this advice. As Bob Ciaffone writes in Middle Limit Holdem Poker, in order for this play to be correct, all of the following must happen:
- Your hand improves
- Your improvement makes your hand better than the hand that is currently best
- The hand that folded to your flop aggression would have improved to an even better hand than yours, at the same time you improve
- No one else improves to beat your new hand
For those of you who are not mathematically inclined, when you multiply a bunch of small probabilities like this, you get an extremely small total probability. From experience, I can tell you that players who call a raise preflop on K-7 do not fold for two bets when the flop comes 9-7-3. Thus, you are not improving your chances of winning the pot with a raise; you are simply putting more money in the pot when you know you do not have the best hand.
What does this add up to? Raising with overcards to improve your chances of winning a big pot is virtually never correct in hold 'em. Don't do it.
What if it is checked to you?
If you raise with A-K or A-Q, the flop is ragged, and it is checked to you and you have only two or three opponents, consider betting. You may win the pot right away, and you may have the best hand even if you are called. However, don't indiscriminately bet the turn and river. If someone called on the flop with a small pair, he intends to call you down, hoping you raised on a hand like A-K or A-Q and missed, so don't put more money into the pot hoping he will fold.
With more opponents than this, don't venture a bet. It is better to try for a free card to make top pair on the turn.
A caution
As you move up to higher-limit games against tougher opponents, you will find that they try to put a lot of tricky moves on you, including betting into the preflop raiser as a bluff. Against these opponents, you must attempt to get a better read on their tendencies and react accordingly. However, against weaker opponents at lower limits, or in multiway pots, you should fold overcards for all the reasons given in this essay. The chances that you are beaten and far behind are too great, unless the pot is very big.
The bottom line
Hands that were way ahead preflop, often are way behind on the flop. There is no reason to throw money into the pot just because you had a good hand before the flop. If the pot is not big, you probably don't have enough outs to continue in the pot, so get out now and minimize your losses.