I've got odds, but do I have the outs?

[Joe Tall]

5/10 Foxwoods w/Kill- last night, doing some warm up for AC tonight.

We are on a Kill hand so we're playing 10/20.

Really great table, very passive, very weak and usually, very predictable. A couple of rocks, 3 super-duper call-stations, 1 really good player, 1 Any-two will do, and yours truely holding the image of the only other player who raises preflop and having another Ulysses-like session; not showing down a loser.

I'm in CO-1 w/A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Good player open raises, Any-Two calls (new to the game, really bad player), I 3-bet, call-station in the CO calls 3-cold, Kill blind is on the button (weak call station) calls 2, Blinds fold, Good player calls, Any-Two calls. 5 to the flop for 15 SBs, the blinds pay the rake.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Good player checks, Any-Two bets, I raise, CO calls, button calls, Good player fold, Any-two calls. (23 SBs)

Turn: 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Any-Two bets again, I call 'time' think and think as I pick up out of my peripheral vision that the CO is going to fold but the Kill button is definately going to call.

I fold. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Comments, suggestions, Pats 23 Jax 12, I'm moving Jan. 1st into an renovated old school house w/16 ft. ceilings and think I'll put of a hoop!, should I have just called the flop? Good fold/bad fold?

I actually know the results and will post them later.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[ElSapo]

Call. Realistically only the jack is an out because I'm not sure an ace wins it for you here, but then again if you hit the ace (or king) you'd probably have to call the river, or bet if checked to. You're getting around 12-1 by my math.

Oh, and I like the flop raise.

[Brian]

Hi Joe,

How can you fold a gutshot to the nuts (with all 4 outs clean) getting the proper odds to call on that alone? Sometimes your Ace or King will be good, sometimes it won't, but if you called only for the gutshot, you'd be making a +EV play.

[EDIT]: I would've just called the Flop. I don't see what you are hoping to accomplish by raising. These guys called 3 bets cold pre-Flop, and are both described as calling stations. They aren't going anywhere.

-Brian

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
with all 4 outs clean

[/ QUOTE ]

My outs are clean, but do you not think that my opponents might hold one of them? I was sure I only had 3-outs having a Jack in one of the other players hands.

Peace,
JT

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and I like the flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the key to the hand. I was trying to buy a free card and push the others behind me out. The Any-Two player normally will check when raised on any street.

Peace,
JT

[Brian]

[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to buy a free card and push the others behind me out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Joe, you described the players behind you as weak calling stations. They called 3 bets before the Flop, but you think at least one of them won't call 2 bets on the Flop?

Also, I don't see why you think a Jack has to be in one of your opponents hands. Should we all adopt the logic that there has to be a Jack out if you have several opponents? Same for an Ace? Everytime we calculate our odds, theres always a chance that one of them is in our opponents' hands. But, there's usually almost no way to tell, so you must assume that they aren't.

-Brian

-Brian

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Joe, you described the players behind you as weak calling stations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes they were, and obviously they called, but at that point I was sure my outs were including the Ace and King, I'll still try to raise it here. Plus, it was also a test to see what the good player was holding. If he had an over-pair or a set, he surely would have c/r 3-bet at that point giving me more information.

[ QUOTE ]
Should we all adopt the logic that there has to be a Jack out if you have several opponents?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, no, no. If this hand were online, I'd call without even thinking about it.

This hand has a lot to do with image, I feel.

Peace,
JT
Peace,

[Jezebel]

So you are getting 12-1 immediately and probably 13-1 on your call if the kill button calls as you suspect, for a gutshot to the nuts. I see this as a definite call. Given the opponents you described, they could be betting/calling a multitude of hands. Even if another Jack is in one of your opponents hands as you pondered in an earlier post, you would still be correct to call in my opinion. With three outs your a 15-1 dog. You are getting 12 or 13:1 on your turn call. If one of the other jacks is out, then it is probably making that opponent a smaller straight (J8, KJ), which should up your chances of getting in an extra bet on the river to justify your implied odds. Throw in the slight chance that your A or K could be good if they hit and I think you have to call.

[CrackerZack]

Am I retarded or do you have the odds to draw to the J alone?

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I retarded or do you have the odds to draw to the J alone?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you are a Yankees fan, but did you not read the title?

Peace,
JT

[CrackerZack]

You mean I'm supposed to read these before responding? I don't get it. Year-end company party last night, i'm in a haze.

I call this in a second and call if I catch and A on the river, raise a J and fold a K.

[Homer]

Joe, you have a call here. You're getting 13:1 if your peripheral vision is right, and you're 10.5:1 against catching your gutshot to the nuts. Plus, there's some chance that an A and maybe even a K will be good. I'm guessing the only reason you posted this is because you think that the any-two player has a J, so you're drawing to three outs. But how does his action of betting the flop, calling your raise and betting the turn tell you that he has a J? He could have all kinds of other hands, including 77, 99, QT, Q9, Q7, T9, T8, T7, 89, 86, KT, KQ, 78, etc. Some of these hands you might be able to eliminate because he wouldn't bet the flop with them, but remember, this is an any-two player. He could have a ton of hands that don't contain a J.

This would be a more interesting discussion if your second card was a rag. Then you wouldn't be drawing to the nuts (probability of a chop enters the equation) and wouldn't have an extra out or two from the A.

-- Homer

[CrackerZack]

yeah. what you said.

What day are you heading to AC?

[Homer]

I don't understand the title. Your odds are determined be the number of outs you have, so how can you have one but not the other? I guess you are referring to the cleanliness of your outs, which again can only mean that you're worried about Mr. Any-Two having a Jack. Don't forget that while he might have a Jack, there's tons of other hands he would play this way that don't contain a Jack, so you must factor those in as well, not just subtract a full out. In other words, without considering his hand you have 4 outs out of 46 cards (10.5:1). If you somehow know that he would only play 99, 77, QT and QJ this way, then:

For 8/20 combos, you would have 4 outs out of 44 unseen cards

For 12/20 combos, you would have 3 outs out of 44 unseen cards

On average, you would have 3.4 outs out of 44 unseen cards, which makes you 11.9:1 against, which is the equivalent of having 3.56 outs out of 46 unseen cards. Obviously, I didn't go through his entire possible subset of hands, but if you did take the time to do this (btw, notice this can't be done at the table) you would see that there's no way you will have less than 3 outs. Likely, your number of outs will barely be affected.

-- Homer

[Homer]

What day are you heading to AC?

Not sure. I might head down tonight if I'm not feeling too lazy, and if not tonight then tomorrow. Are you playing at the Taj or Borgata? Is there going to be a meetup of 2+2ers?

-- Homer

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
btw, notice this can't be done at the table

[/ QUOTE ]

I did call 'time out' and thought for about 20 seconds and watched out of the corner of my eye to see the others reactions. But in no way I could put him on any other hand that didn't contain a Jack.

The results are intesting, I'll post them in a few.

Thanks Homer,
Joe Tall

[CrackerZack]

You should save your timeouts, they're precious, next time just spike the ball. Oh, and call.

[Homer]

But in no way I could put him on any other hand that didn't contain a Jack.

Seriously? You can't put him on something like Q9 even?

I think you got a little too focused on what your opponent was likely to have based on what you needed, instead of being more objective about it. In other words, if you were an observer watching this hand, do you think you would have put NETO only on hands that contain a Jack?

-- Homer

[CrackerZack]

Playing/Staying at the borgata. I may check out the pink game one of the days or wander down to the trop after I've hit my hours req'd per day. It seems to be a semi-meeting. Joe, Me are in, Rollaj has confirmed in B&M, bunky said he'd be there, MG originally mentioned being in but haven't heard anything since. I brought my "I'm running bad" hat. I think I'll wear it.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
In other words, if you were an observer watching this hand, do you think you would have put NETO only on hands that contain a Jack?

[/ QUOTE ]

My answer is obviously no Q9 went through my head but he wan't the type of player to bet into a raiser with a strong holding.

Peace,
JT

[Homer]

I just read in the NVG forum that there's going to be a dinner at 10 PM, in case Joe didn't let you know.

-- Homer

[Homer]

My answer is obviously no

Why obviously? If you've never done what I described I'd be surprised. But hell, maybe you haven't. I know you're good at detaching yourself from the game.

Q9 went through my head but he wan't the type of player to bet into a raiser with a strong holding.

Are you saying that he would have check-raised the turn with Q9? I think I understand what you're saying now. He bets the flop, calls your raise and then bets the turn, so he must have picked up a draw to go with his top-pair or whatever. And since the only draw out there is to a straight, he must have the gap card. I still think you are narrowing his range of hands too much, but at least I understand what your thought process was.

-- Homer

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Why obviously?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty simple as an observer even if this was the only hand I watched.

This is how I would see it:

1. This player just called 2-cold in MP from a EP raise, I'm getting on the list! Now a 3-bet and 2 cold callers!?! Holy crap, I'm going to lie about my initials as soon as the next name is called I'm yelling, 'lock it up'!

2. He bet out into a 3-bettter and got popped on the flop, very ineresting.

3. Now he bets into him again the turn? I wonder if he thinks his 2-pair is good. I hope he gets popped again!

4. I wonder why the 3-better is thinking so much, he's got pot-odds to call anything. WTF? he folds?

5. I hear "JTG 5/10 Hold'em", "JTG 5/10 Hold'em" and yell, "Lock it up!"

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that he would have check-raised the turn with Q9?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he wasn't capable of this. I'm not sure if he even thought it exsisted. He was a fresh-newbie, 1st time player I think. He called a river raise with the nuts instead of 3-bettting a few hands earlier.

[ QUOTE ]
I think I understand what you're saying now. He bets the flop, calls your raise and then bets the turn, so he must have picked up a draw to go with his top-pair or whatever. And since the only draw out there is to a straight, he must have the gap card.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what I was thinking.

[ QUOTE ]
I still think you are narrowing his range of hands too much,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I posted it.

Peace,
JT

[slavic]

Joe - I don't see how you can put Mr any two on a straight. I think Q9 or Q7 may be more likely, and a weak player calling station is going to call you. At this point you have to call, heck you never know your A or K outs may be good also.

[CrackerZack]

unless he has a made straight, you actually have more outs if he has a J making this even more of a call.

[slavic]

let's see if we take the other 2 hands and factor in that 1 has a J.

we now have 3 J's in 42 cards.

3 : 39
13 to 1

[JTG51]

Right, what Zack said.

If you are sure he's got something like QJ then your Aces are outs, and there's no reason to think the Kill's hand dirties your outs. You are probably going to tell us this was one, but it's hard to come up with a scenario where you don't have at least 4 outs.

[JTG51]

5. I hear "JTG 5/10 Hold'em", "JTG 5/10 Hold'em" and yell, "Lock it up!"

That's funny, I don't remember leaving the house last night. How'd I do? Did I win?

[Louie Landale]

Plenty enough to call since your sure to get 2bb on the river if you snag a T. Also, an Ace may win if everyone checks the river.

You shouldn't be building these big pots with weak hands if you are going to fold later.

- Louie

[JTG51]

At 13-1 when you factor in potential river action it would be about break even to call even if you knew it was only a 3 outer.

[rkiray]

Looks like you have more than enough pot odds with just the gut shot to call. This doesn't even count implied odds and overcards possibly being good. So unless you think someone after you will raise I don't understand the fold.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
That's funny, I don't remember leaving the house last night. How'd I do? Did I win?

[/ QUOTE ]

You never got your seat, some other Tall guy who plays dominating poker, wearing a real cool Red Sox cap took it, in fact that guy kicks ass; I hear he dates smoking babes too. I think he thought the call was "JT 5/10 Hold'em".

Peace,
JT

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
At 13-1 when you factor in potential river action it would be about break even to call even if you knew it was only a 3 outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what burned me on the way home. I never even considered what could happen if I did make my straight. Thanks for kicking me in the head, once again, JTG, you're the best.

Peace,
JT

[JTG51]

It's always my pleasure to kick you in the head. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
You shouldn't be building these big pots with weak hands if you are going to fold later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Louie, I needed the kick in the nuts.

Peace,
JT

[Joe Tall]

The river brought the JACK.

Any-two bet, the button raised, and Any-two called.

Anytwo had JT and the button hand AKo and dragged it. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

My read was right, but after this hand I went and took a walk. I couldn't decide if my fold was right or wrong. I finally put it beside me and decided to lay it here on you all.

Thank you so much for your responses, I'd just be an average Joe without you all. I actually feel you were to nice to me, there were no 'moron', 'idiot', 'fish' names in the replies.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

I fcuked this whole post up!! The 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif should be an 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Making the board on the turn: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Does that change anything? Does anyone understand my thinking now? My 7AM haze must have let that one slip by.

Peace,
JT