Staying with an underpair

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

Party $2/4. I had been folding just about any underpair to a A or K on the flop with even moderate betting and any paint on the flop with strong betting. I had been folding QQ or less to an A or K on the flop. Recently, I started holding these and calling one bet, or even coming out firing. It seems I'm getting spanked and just want confirmation. Am I a moron? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Mike Gallo]

Milo,

Welcome aboard.

Nobody will give a good response because you did not give enough information.

Post some hands.

[Louie Landale]

Two over-cards are the death of pocket pairs. Unless you want to bluff.

There are four things that work against your pocket pair when there is an overcard [1] Someone can have you beat [2] You are defensive throughout the hand and therefore have bad implied odds (i.e. you wish you were all in) [3] You are unlikely to improve if you ARE beat wherease the opponents are generally drawing to 5 cards if THEY are beat. [4] Players who BET/RAISE are much more likely to have the top pair than players who CHECK/CALL.

You cannot do anything about [3]; but it means you are almost never getting the right odds to "draw": playing depends mostly on your chances of having the best hand right now.

[4] is obvious, but it means be more willing to bet in late position if they check. Tend to fold if bet into. Tend to worry if YOU check and THEN they bet.

[1] is mostly a function on how many players there are and how tight they play. If you raise early and get 3 tight calls and flop an Ace then you are dead. With just a couple tight players and the flop is 8-4-3, your pocket 6s look pretty good.

[2] is very interesting. Its partly a function of your confidence and abilities but mostly a function of the opponents and your position. It has to do with how the hand will play out on later rounds. Be more willing to play your pair if you are confident you won't make any mistakes later in the hand. Fold otherwise.

If you cannot tell whether or not you are beat but probably are (say its a reasonably tight reasonably aggressive player who can sniff weakness) then you might as well fold now. If the opponents are NOT going to bet on the turn without the top pair but MAY on the flop, then call one time on the flop. If you can STOP the opponents from getting frisky later by betting out yourself, then tend to bet out yourself.

Having said all that, there have certainly been times I've confidently RAISED with the high underpair and bet it all the way for value.

- Louie