Costly Misstake?

[Peter]

2-4 online game. I have 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif in BB.

4 limpers and the SB completes. I check.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

It's checked around.

Turn: 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet, next player raises and a third one coldcalls. Last player folds as do I, since I only have second pair. Oops, wait a minute, didn't I have 2 clubs. Yes, I did. Too late.

River brings the Q /images/graemlins/club.gif, which would have made me beat the turn raiser who made a set on the turn.

I think my misstake was pretty costly, even though there's a coldcaller on the turn who might have a bigger flush. Then again, he might also be hanging around with some pair.
How costly do you think it was?

Peter

[crockpot]

the pot is eight big bets minus rake. i would doubt your 3 is an out since the turn was raised after the flop was checked, which usually means two good-sized pairs or better. since it is possible that:

- a 9 may win for you
- a club may not win for you if someone has a bigger flush draw
- a club that pairs the board may make someone else a full house

i would estimate that you should call getting between 5:1 and 6:1 here, so your mistake is not tragic, though it was a mistake.

[Guido]

When we asume a nine or three aren't good outs you have 8 pretty good outs. When that's the case you need 5:1. You get 8:1 closing the action. With the implied odds it becomes 9:1 or more so I don't think it is close. When you don't hit your club on the river you can simply fold. When a club comes you bet and call a raise.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
How costly do you think it was?

[/ QUOTE ]

This mistake cost you the entire pot. How much money was in it?

Oh... you mean in the terms of long term EV... yeah... let's just say, it's costly enough that you shouldn't be happy about it. Terrible fold. Big mistake. Do your best to avoid making it again.

Good luck.

[Guido]

When you lose, you lose at most 3BB. When you win, you win at least 9BB and at most 13BB.

When your win rate is 3BB/hour. Then in hours this would mean you lose at most 1 hour of work and win at least 3 hours of work /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[LetsRock]

I don't think it's a mistake. It's marginal at worst. Your possible flush was far from the nuts and you really couldn't be too confident if your 9s or 3s hit the board. I would have called one bet and maybe 2 if it closes the action but you were stuck between 2 bettors and this could have been capped.

And you were NOT getting correct odds:
5 limpers pre-flop = 2.5 BB
1 bet, 1 raise = 3BB
5.5 BB to you = 5.5:2

Laydown and don't sweat these kind of coulda/woulda/shouldas.

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
could have been capped.


[/ QUOTE ]
Read it again...

[ QUOTE ]
And you were NOT getting correct odds:
5 limpers pre-flop = 2.5 BB
1 bet, 1 raise = 3BB
5.5 BB to you = 5.5:2

[/ QUOTE ]
Read it again...

[DarkKnight]

Back of the envelope approx...

Outs 9 clubs + 2 nines = 11 / 46 cards

Pot is $32 and you should get another $4 or more
when you hit.

11/46 * 36 - 35/46 * 4 = $5.

You lost about $5 in EV

I've over estimated the outs (bigger flush) and
I've under estimated the final pot (raises) and
I may have under estimated your exposure (raises).
But I think $5 is a good estimate of the cost of the error.

DK

[LetsRock]

Ooops.

My bad.

Sorry.

DOH!

Call the raise.

[Peter]

Ok, let's assume I didn't make the misstake. How do I continue if the club falls? Do I bet and call a raise like Guido suggested?
I think if I bet, I can't call a raise if the coldcaller is the raiser.
What about check-folding if the raiser bets and the coldcaller raises and checkraising if it's only 1 back to me?

What if a 9 falls?

I think I can just check-fold if a 3 comes off.

Peter

[DarkKnight]

Coldcaller is probably on a draw but we're at 2-4
so you nver know.

When a flush makes you need to bet and call a raise
(even if its 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif)

If a nine falls bet out or check raise.

If a 3 falls I think I check call.

DK

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if I bet, I can't call a raise if the coldcaller is the raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you do that, then you shouldn't call the turn raise. You have to call IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
What about check-folding if the raiser bets and the coldcaller raises


[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you check when you hit your hand and because your hand isn't extreemly strong you can't C/R. I would rather bet and call a raise then seeing it checked around or check-call.

[ QUOTE ]
checkraising if it's only 1 back to me

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, interesting but then you have the risk of it being check around and I wouldn't like that.

[ QUOTE ]
What if a 9 falls?


[/ QUOTE ]
I would check-call.

[ QUOTE ]
I think I can just check-fold if a 3 comes off.

[/ QUOTE ]
Probably YES.

[DarkKnight]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
What if a 9 falls?


[/ QUOTE ]
I would check-call.


[/ QUOTE ]

What are you afraid of here 76 or KK ?

IMHO you've got to bet out with trip 9's.

DK

[Guido]

You're right. I wouldn't be scared of KK but 88 or 55, betting out and calling a raise is probably best.

[WDC]

I'd bet and call the raise if either a nine or a club hits. Remember your flush is of the back door variety so the raiser is possibly discounting the possibility that you have it. If your not gonna call a raise check and call the bet. You cannnot see it to the end if the club hits.

[Peter]

I don't think I have to be afraid of it being checked around, since we can safely assume the turn raiser has at least 2 pair. He won't check that on the river if the club falls, especially since the flush is a backdoor one.
I think the only times the coldcaller will raise is if he has a bigger flush, with a smaller flush he will just call. So if I check, I can pretty safely fold if it's two back to me and I can checkraise, if it's only one.

Peter

[Louie Landale]

So you folded on the turn. You were getting 8:1 to call and are only a 5:1 dog against a known set. The chances you are drawing dead, I suspect, about ballance out the chances you end up winning without a flush (your 9s are good or you make trips or 2 pair). You seem to have given up about 3/8ths of a BB by folding.

But lets say you called and make the flush. Should you bet out?

This is quite a bit different situation than had there been a bet on the flop. In that case players are NOT conserned about back-door draws so much and rightfully so. But when its checked around on the flop and THEN the 2-flush gets there and then 3 players want to put in 2 bets each, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to strongly suspect the turn card helped a couple of them; and even my idiot half brother will be thinking "flush draw".

The set is likely to check the river and rightfully so. Bet this one out.

A turn raise is statisically LESS strong when the flop is checked around than when it isn't. In this case, the raiser can easily have Q9, and hand he's sure to check on the river.

- Louie

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
He won't check that on the river if the club falls, especially since the flush is a backdoor one.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, don't know about that on Truepoker. If you're sure the raiser will bet then obviously checking is the best option. I thought they were very passive at truepoker...

[Peter]

I disagree that the raiser can easily have Q9. Most players on TruePoker are so passive that they would even just call a K with a weak kicker (and indeed a lot of them won't bet out on the flop).

You're statement that even your idiot half brother will think flush draw when three people are willing to put in 2 bets each makes not much sense if you're statement that the raiser can easily have Q9 is true.

And are you really saying that if you had been the turn raiser, and I was still in and the flush card fell and I checked that you would have checked your set? I think that's way too weak.

Peter

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
Most players on TruePoker are so passive that they would even just call a K with a weak kicker (and indeed a lot of them won't bet out on the flop).


[/ QUOTE ]
If they are so passive why would they bet out on the river if there is a possible flush? Are they only passive preflop and on the flop but become more agressive on the turn and river?

[Peter]

Most players on TP are very passive, but if he was a very passive one, he wouldn't have raised the turn. He did, so he will likely bet the river as well, even if the flush falls.

Peter

[Guido]

I believe even passive players will raise with two pair or trips when the flop is checked around but wouldn't bet the river when there is a possible flush or obvious straight.

[Peter]

They are very passive with "just" one pair. With two pair or trips, they will raise a bet, but mostly call if reraised. However, with most of the players if they raised and were called, they will bet on the next street no matter what falls.

Peter

[Louie Landale]

I can't comment about the passivity of these players, but in a real game the turn raiser can EASILY not have that much since its pretty obvious that its likely nobody has much (since it was checked around).

The raiser may not have a flush draw (Q9) but that doesn't mean the callers don't.

Yes. In that situation where I snagged a set of 5s and raised and got two callers, I would check the river. The likelyhood that one has a flush draw is quite a bit higher than had I bet a set on the flop and got two callers. Otherwise they probably don't have enough to cal a bet. Think about it; what hand isn't worth betting the flop but IS worth calling two bets on the turn with? A hand that got better with the turn card; that's what.

- Louie

[Peter]

I can understand your your second comment, but only without your first. If it's obvious the raiser can EASILY not have that much, than the other players now that too and will definately call with any pair, remember this is small stakes.

I can understand your first comment if it was another site, but at TruePoker somehow, most people don't raise with TPTK.

As for the results: the raiser did bet his set and the caller just called with his flush.

Peter