WarDekar
12-10-2003, 05:13 AM
A while back, I posted about a new "Parlay Method" I came up with. If you don't remember, there's an old post detailing it. I finally got my own computer back yesterday after more than a month of downtime, and I wrote a little computer program to simulate my new method compared to straight betting. I did my new method with 2 bet sizes: one such that the same max win would be possible as with straight bets, and the other where the max loss would be the same as with straight bets. I wrote a program to simulate millions of 3-bet cards using my method, then graphed the results. The results are posted on webspace here:
http://www.uiuc.edu/ro/thetachi/data.xls
As you can see, it turns out that the break even point for each one is the same, in between an average win % of 52 and 53. I'm not exactly sure what to conclude by this. What is clear, however, is that if you are above a 52-whatever% winner, it is to your advantage on a limited bankroll to bet with the parlay method. If you wager the same amount as you would have using a straight method, your winnings WILL be more than the straight method over time, but risking the exact same amount of money! (NOTE: For ease-of programming I actually didn't have it as the exact same amount of risk, it is SLIGHTLY less, but not by much at all!) Your max winnings are also TWICE that of the straight bet if you go 3-0 on your card.
I'm going to do a bit more, because obviously I knew what the results were going to be before I did this. The real question is, how low are the lows going to be for the parlay method compared to the straight method. Well, I programmed that as well (although it's not posted on the excel sheet). For a few "common" average win % values (taken from actual program, copied and pasted. Also, this is assuming you use a $10 "base bet" size. This means you use $10 on each straight bet and $5 on each parlay for PARLAY METHOD ONE, the other sizes for just straight bets and method 2 are adjusted accordingly to fit their respective "goals". The simulation was run 100,000 times for this instead of millions):
Enter an average win percentage (Outside of 0-100% to quit):
50
Straight Method Total: -468458 Straight Method Low: -468557 Straight Method High: 277.2
Parlay Method 1 Total: -342031 Parlay Method 1 Low: -342031 Parlay Method 1 High: 266
Parlay Method 2 Total: -684062 Parlay Method 2 Low: -684062 Parlay Method 2 High: 532
Enter an average win percentage (Outside of 0-100% to quit):
53
Straight Method Total: 148035 Straight Method Low: -1247.4 Straight Method High: 148965
Parlay Method 1 Total: 90869 Parlay Method 1 Low: -834 Parlay Method 1 High: 91413
Parlay Method 2 Total: 181738 Parlay Method 2 Low: -1668 Parlay Method 2 High: 182826
Enter an average win percentage (Outside of 0-100% to quit):
55
Straight Method Total: 559261 Straight Method Low: -277.2 Straight Method High: 560043
Parlay Method 1 Total: 405250 Parlay Method 1 Low: -207 Parlay Method 1 High: 405585
Parlay Method 2 Total: 810500 Parlay Method 2 Low: -414 Parlay Method 2 High: 811170
I did a range of 50-55% average win percentages, it's clear that your lows won't stray too far and are clearly VERY low for your gains for a "winning" bettor.
What does this all mean? Well, I don't know. Clearly there are advantages and disadvantages to all 3 methods. How do you choose the right one? I don't know. The only reason I'm bringing this up is because I think it's a legitimate method of betting, and wanted to get some feedback on it. Please, tell me what you think!
EDIT -
I think the Parlay Method 2 shown for average win % of 53 is the most telling here. The total is higher than the normal, and it only took a SLIGHTLY higher bankroll to get started. And this is for about as little of a winning player as you can get.
http://www.uiuc.edu/ro/thetachi/data.xls
As you can see, it turns out that the break even point for each one is the same, in between an average win % of 52 and 53. I'm not exactly sure what to conclude by this. What is clear, however, is that if you are above a 52-whatever% winner, it is to your advantage on a limited bankroll to bet with the parlay method. If you wager the same amount as you would have using a straight method, your winnings WILL be more than the straight method over time, but risking the exact same amount of money! (NOTE: For ease-of programming I actually didn't have it as the exact same amount of risk, it is SLIGHTLY less, but not by much at all!) Your max winnings are also TWICE that of the straight bet if you go 3-0 on your card.
I'm going to do a bit more, because obviously I knew what the results were going to be before I did this. The real question is, how low are the lows going to be for the parlay method compared to the straight method. Well, I programmed that as well (although it's not posted on the excel sheet). For a few "common" average win % values (taken from actual program, copied and pasted. Also, this is assuming you use a $10 "base bet" size. This means you use $10 on each straight bet and $5 on each parlay for PARLAY METHOD ONE, the other sizes for just straight bets and method 2 are adjusted accordingly to fit their respective "goals". The simulation was run 100,000 times for this instead of millions):
Enter an average win percentage (Outside of 0-100% to quit):
50
Straight Method Total: -468458 Straight Method Low: -468557 Straight Method High: 277.2
Parlay Method 1 Total: -342031 Parlay Method 1 Low: -342031 Parlay Method 1 High: 266
Parlay Method 2 Total: -684062 Parlay Method 2 Low: -684062 Parlay Method 2 High: 532
Enter an average win percentage (Outside of 0-100% to quit):
53
Straight Method Total: 148035 Straight Method Low: -1247.4 Straight Method High: 148965
Parlay Method 1 Total: 90869 Parlay Method 1 Low: -834 Parlay Method 1 High: 91413
Parlay Method 2 Total: 181738 Parlay Method 2 Low: -1668 Parlay Method 2 High: 182826
Enter an average win percentage (Outside of 0-100% to quit):
55
Straight Method Total: 559261 Straight Method Low: -277.2 Straight Method High: 560043
Parlay Method 1 Total: 405250 Parlay Method 1 Low: -207 Parlay Method 1 High: 405585
Parlay Method 2 Total: 810500 Parlay Method 2 Low: -414 Parlay Method 2 High: 811170
I did a range of 50-55% average win percentages, it's clear that your lows won't stray too far and are clearly VERY low for your gains for a "winning" bettor.
What does this all mean? Well, I don't know. Clearly there are advantages and disadvantages to all 3 methods. How do you choose the right one? I don't know. The only reason I'm bringing this up is because I think it's a legitimate method of betting, and wanted to get some feedback on it. Please, tell me what you think!
EDIT -
I think the Parlay Method 2 shown for average win % of 53 is the most telling here. The total is higher than the normal, and it only took a SLIGHTLY higher bankroll to get started. And this is for about as little of a winning player as you can get.