Addendum to Slavic's very thin bet

[Mike]

K. W. has something close to this in his book, perhaps it's other places too, so it's not original. I think this example does help to clarify some situations and ideas. I modified it of course. I think this concept applies to many situations we find ourselves in almost every session we play. On with the show:

Ring game, four players are each dealt AQ not suited. All four of these players see the flop. The remaining players fold to make the thought process easier. No flush, no straight at the river.

Who wins this hand and why?

[slavic]

Normally the aggressor.

[Mike]

That is why I like your bet on the river.

[bisonbison]

logically, anyone who calls all the river bets.

But who's gonna call all the river bets? The first bettor, the calling station, and the guys who misread his cards and thinks he has two pair. When those two call, the last guy folds, convinced he's beat.

[bernie]

notice that 2 of the 4 players shouldnt even be seeing the flop if they play their hands right preflop.

who wins?

this really depends on the players and who is aggressive. though if 4 players see the flop with AQ, there's only likely 1 aggressor of the bunch, if that.

so if they all made it to the flop, it's very likely theyll all see the showdown

so again, who wins?

the rake

b

[slavic]

You bring up a good point Bernie. It depends on were the first AQo is. If he's UTG then he should win on the first raise. If he's MP, the next guy may win on the 3 bet. It would take a pretty passive group to make it to the flop. Something like AQo limps under the gun because he doesn't like his position, MP raises, CO just calls because the pot was protected, BB doesn't like the hand to a raise but he already has half a bet in. UTG calls but hates his hand.

Flop misses everyone, BB checks because he has nothing proud he didn't reraise and gets to save bets when whoever bets their real hand lets him fold, UTG passes to the AK, The preflop raises doesn't want to bluff 4 bettors, and the CO with position thinks about taking a shot but with so many guys in he can't. Same for the turn. On the river someone gets ballsy and trys to steal, and either all others fold or someone goes for a re-steal. Of course with this group of characters I doubt there is a re-steal.

[bernie]

"It would take a pretty passive group to make it to the flop. Something like AQo limps under the gun because he doesn't like his position, MP raises, CO just calls because the pot was protected, BB doesn't like the hand to a raise but he already has half a bet in. UTG calls but hates his hand. "

think of how often you see players at mucks and how they play AQ. given the average player ive seen, at least 3 see the flop on this hand. if for no other reason than, 'they've got big cards'. and many dont raise with AQ. much less 3 bet with it. and that would be my view of a typical group.

in a game where guys know a little of what theyre doing, id say 2 are seeing the flop. which would be a game i may not want to be in.

nothing against warren, but this example may work better with AKs.

i like youre post flop play by play. though i dont think a river bet is knocking anyone out at that point after no action for 2 rounds. everyone would figure an overpair, or pair would bet at some point in the hand.

unless a K is on the flop and that freezes the table for the hand. but of course, that would never happen /images/graemlins/wink.gif hahaha

cya

b

[ElSapo]

Of course when the flop comes 557 and it checks through and then another 7 on the turn and a deuce on the river, it might go bet-call-call-call....

Or the flop comes TJKr, and the table goes ape-[censored]. Chop-chop four-ways, and everyone says online poker is rigged.

[ElSapo]

Or the flop comes TJKr, and the table goes ape-[censored]. Chop-chop four-ways, and everyone says online poker is rigged.

Wow, I got censored. On a Wednesday, no less.