No-Limit Hold'em decision in the money

[drewjustdrew]

No-Limit $22 pokerstars w/ rebuys. 483 players, 530 rebuys, 290 add-ons.

Down to 33 players. Average stack size is 63621. Limits are 3000/6000 w/300 ante. Playing 9 handed costs 11700 per round. Limits go up in 2 minutes. I have 37000 in mid position. Early position player raises all-in for 59000. I have pocket 10s. Should I call? My goal is to place high in tournament, not hang on for the next payout increase at 27 players.

[Che]

You're roughly a 5-4 favorite against overcards, way behind AA-JJ, way ahead of 99 and 88. You're getting 4-3 from the pot if you call.

If your opponent's cards are randomly selected from this distribution and no one else calls, your chip EV is probably positive for the hand (I'm guessing) and you do need to double up soon (i.e. in the next round or two at the most).

However, two factors shift the decision toward folding IMHO:

1. The fact that your opponent went allin from early position (which probably shifts the odds of 99/88 down while pushing the odds of the big pairs up).
2. The possibility of someone behind you coming in with a whopper.

I'm more concerned about 1 than 2, but I don't think 2 can be ignored.

You're shortstacked but not desperate, so I'd rather wait for a chance to steal a couple of pots by being the first one in with AJo-type hands than call an EP allin with TT.

Just my two cents...

[Lost Wages]

You need to wait for a better chance. It is much better to bet or raise all-in than to call all-in. Betting or raising all-in gives you two ways to win a pot. Calling gives you one.

Lost Wages

[drewjustdrew]

The first two posters were correct. My two tens were facing two queens and I was eliminated when I didn't catch. I had a strong feeling I was way behind and seriously considered folding. I was just curious at what point does someone in this situation considering chip totals and betting limits decide to take a chance with a call vs waiting to be the aggressor.

[Che]

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I was just curious at what point does someone in this situation considering chip totals and betting limits decide to take a chance with a call vs waiting to be the aggressor.

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I hope that a better player will take a stab at this, but in the meantime...

I think you've got about 10-12 more hands (i.e. until the blinds hit you the second time) before you start taking risks you wouldn't normally take. Even then, I'd probably wait at least one more orbit before calling an allin with coinflip or worse-type hand, especially an EP allin.

So, you've got about 20 more hands where you probably want to play only if:

1. You're the aggressor
2. You have a whopper
3. You think another short stack is pushing with a desperate hand that you can beat

Assuming you have to fold all 20 hands (for whatever combination of reasons), you'll be down to about T20,000. At that point, I would start calling with hands that are coinflip-type hands (AK, AQ, middle pairs).

Some will probably say this is too conservative and that you should start pushing sooner. They may be right, but in my (limited) experience, there have been enough times that I get 2 good hands in a row and go from being the shortest stack around to second or third at my table to justify being conservative. 20K to 120K in two hands is very doable if the blinds are large (and you get a little lucky /images/graemlins/smirk.gif).

[drewjustdrew]

I agree I could have waited a little longer, but only through one more set of blinds. That would have left me at $28000 or so. The 3X the big blind raise I normally play would have been $18000, and like I said in my first post, the limits were going up in 2 minutes. Since I was mid-position, I had 13-15 more hands tops before I would have been forced to make a move.

[jedi]

I don't think you can be playing with 3X the big blind for a raise. At this time, it's either all-in or fold if you decide to play.

That having been said, I'd have folded the TT for the reasons described. You'd probably be pushing all-in on a later hand that isn't as good, but don't underestimate the power of being the first person to all-in raise.

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I agree I could have waited a little longer, but only through one more set of blinds. That would have left me at $28000 or so. The 3X the big blind raise I normally play would have been $18000, and like I said in my first post, the limits were going up in 2 minutes. Since I was mid-position, I had 13-15 more hands tops before I would have been forced to make a move.

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