60-120 pocket threes

[mikelow]

Playing in a rare (for me, that is) 60-120 session at the Bellagio on Saturday night, I'm dealt 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif in the cutoff. All pass to me and I raise. Button folds, but both blinds call. I've only been in the game about 25 minutes, so I don't know too much about the players in the game.

Three of us see:

A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

Both check to me, and I bet. Only the big blind calls.

River is:

[A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif]2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Big blind bets. Raise, call or fold? Results to be posted later.

[ZeroGee]

Fold. Even if he's betting because he picked up the hearts draw, he has _at worst_ two overcards to you, for 13 outs.

Best case scenario, he's drawing to hearts now, and the 3 of hearts falls on the river.

But the vast majority of possibilities has you way behind, with only 1 or 2 outs. He's likely not going anywhere.

People frequently post things like this where they ended up winning, but continuing in this hand just does not make fiscal sense.

[Jeffage]

With the action, it's much more likely he has an Ace or 10 rather than a turned flush draw. If he is sophisticated, he may be betting with a monster hoping you raise just an ace so he can bleed u for three bets. If he has a flush draw, he has overs too. I'd raise very rarely and only if I had a VERY strong line on this opponent.

Jeff

[mikelow]

Sorry for the delay.

I decided to call the bet, not knowing much about the big blind. River was the 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

BB checked and my threes were good.

[Jeffage]

Why did you show first?

Jeff

[mikelow]

BB mucked as I showed. He most likely had something like K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[elysium]

hi mike
if you raised, you played it perfectly. the thing not to do is to carry this line of play into some other type situation and distinguish between the two. there aren't many situations like this that come up during a session. i've seen you attack a lone utg limper out of the bling with these type holdings. that must lead to failure.

the one main leak i see in your game, and where you're losing the most ev in my opinion, and this is just my opinion, but i see you short-handed a lot of times with small pocket pairs. sure, you'll say that there is nothing that you can do about that, too few called, etc. but that's not correct. a good player controls every aspect of the table. a good player allows more people in when appropriate, and only allows a few in when holding a hand that plays well short-handed. if you have a hand that likes a lot of opponents, you become a recruiter. if your hand plays well against a few, then you become a screener.

now this goes toward your total game. there is a certain player in the cut-off who would have gotten this into at least a five way.

in the future, when you post another hand like this one from the cutoff, give some detail about what you did to make this thing a 5-way, instead of a blind-way. if you are controlling the table, you should have no problem in getting this thing 5-way from the cut-off. and now we see yet another very important aspect of position. because you are in control of the table, your excellent cut-off position allows you to fine tune your hand so that when appropriate, you can recruit or screen out the number of opponents you want in the hand because when you have a hand that plays well in a multi-way, and the opponents turn to you and ask,"what shall we do now?", you can subtley either recruit or thin out and make that your answer. now you have exactly the number of opponents you need for your hand. you must never leave that to the vagaries of happenstance and inbeded inertia. from the cut-off and button you can be a traffic patrolman with whistle and glove; now allowing a few more people in; now keeping all but a select few out. sometimes allowing them to call with rags, and other times, having them fold a stronger hand. the table must look to you for instruction. the table really needs leadership mike.

[elindauer]

wow elysium. You are clearly the best player that you have ever told me about.

Great post.

[JasonM]

Ok, your post makes no sense to me. You are saying fold even though you probably have the best hand because he has over cards and a flush draw? If he is ahead here doesn't he have more "outs" than the guy on the draw? Am I missing something?

[brad]

yes its a conditional probability. the times he is behind he is way behind and the times he is ahead he will only stay ahead like 2/3 of the time.

so like if he estimates hes ahead 1/3 of the time then he needs to downgrade that to 1/4 because his hand wont hold up.

[Ed Miller]

BB picked up hearts or something. I'd raise. In fact, I raise in this spot (opponent check-calls the flop and then makes a fishy bet into me on the turn) virtually every time, and I am almost never disappointed.

[mikelow]

Well, I did raise preflop and it was then three-handed. At the time the hand was played there were nine players att he table.

[ZeroGee]

Exactly. But I'd say it's more like he's only conditionally ahead 1/5th or 1/6th of the time. Do you think he would have posted this if the guy turned over a 10? An ace? Pocket jacks? etc. Despite the outcome, you're not leading enough here to make it worthwhile.

[nykenny]

sometimes though very rarely, i play a set this way. don't know if others do too. check call with set on flop. bet turn. stop & go...

[Ed Miller]

Point is that mid-limit Bellagio players make this play far far more often when they pick up a draw than when they have a strong made hand. This is a collective leak, but it is one. I'd raise in this spot every time and expect to win more than enough outright.