AA - Easy all-in call?

[Wayne]

I was doing well last night in the Empire $25k tourney. I have 4000 chips, slightly below average, with 65 players left. Payouts start ar 50.

With the blinds at 300/600, I pick up AA in the cutoff. UTG+1 goes all-in with 3900 chips. All fold to me. I was happy to call the bet. He spiked a set (9's) to win the hand.

With 15 places away from payout, calling the bet is automatic. If anyone thinks differently, let me know.

But this hand reminds me of another AA hand I had. I had a big stack, 15th place overall, with 51 players remaining (top 50 paid). I make a big raise with AA, and get reraised by another big stack that has me covered. I go all-in, he calls and spikes a set of Q's. I get knocked out on the bubble.

Considering that I already had a large stack, and my opponent had me covered, and we were on the bubble, how should I play it? I still think it is correct to go all-in, as this puts me in the top 5 with a shot at a big payday.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Wayne,

Yes, easy call. He caught. Oh well. That's hold'em. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Cris

[fat_nutz]

tough to criticize a play that got all your chips in as a 4-1 favorite

[Bozeman]

Every good player will get knocked out on the bubble occasionally, you cost yourself too much chance of a top place by excessive fear of the bubble finish.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you're on the bubble of a super-satellite, you can easily be in a spot where you should fold every hand.

In any other kind of payout structure, you could never fold AA preflop for the rest of your life, and it is very likely that you never once should have done so. Somebody can come up with some unlikely scenario where folding is correct, but so far I've only seen one person in real life who was in a spot where I thought folding AA would've been the right play.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[SossMan]

I'm curious how the super sat structure makes auto folding correct. Can you elaborate? Thanks.

[Edge34]

Hi soss,

I could be wrong, but I'm assuming greg meant that if it was in a Super Satellite in which, say, there is no difference in 40th and 1st (say all those finishers get a seat in a bigger tourney), then auto-folding and not risking your chance of making this cutoff would be the proper move. If i'm wrong, though, I'm sure he'll be able to explain better.

[tpir90036]

becasue you don't care about outright winning....you just care about getting into the "money" which in this case is the same for everyone....an entry into a bigger tourney. so there is no reason to go for 1st when you are more or less guaranteed at least 30th place (or whatever the cutoff is in the tournament).

[SossMan]

Oh...well that seems obvious. I was confused about the structure.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

What they said.

In a super, there are frequently multiple seats being awarded. It may be that you're down to 6 players, with the final 5 winning a seat, and 6th getting nothing (or maybe some cash, but less than a seat). If your stack is really big compared to 2 or more players, it may be that you can sit back and fold every hand, even AA, and still win a seat 99% of the time. In that case, why play even AA where you will lose a lot of chips when you lose, and where your win rate in that pot is nowhere near 99%.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[muck_nutz]

In a NL HU freezeout situation it might be best to fold AA when you opponent goes all in preflop if you think you have a sigificant advantage over him and a fair number of pots are getting to the flop (where you can get a bigger edge). I think this is far more likely then the normally talked about 2 big stacks and a small stack when you have the AA and the other big stack is already committed because you only have to hit the parlay of having AA and your opponent having a big hand rather then the 3 way situation usu. talked about.