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View Full Version : Thanks for the advice..Changes I have made - PLEASE REVIEW


OrangeHeat
12-08-2003, 11:36 AM
After listening to all the sound advice....

I liquidated 75% of my position in BBAL and took a 4% profit.

I put half into a no-load mutual fund (CGMRX).

The other half I used to buy Men's Warehouse (MW) - I think this has potential to rebound from the dip and the company is in good financial condition. Also economy up - suit sales up /images/graemlins/smile.gif

So now my taxable portfolio is diversified as follows:

S&P 500 Index (VFINX) - 55%
Large Cap Value (DODGX) - 9%
Small/Mid Blend (CGMFX) - 10%
Small Growth (VISGX)- 9%
Realty Fund (CGMRX) - 7%
Men's Warehouse (MW) - 4%
NY Healthcare (BBAL) - 4% (Planning on selling this too and finding a better stock)

I plan to add a global blend fund this month maybe Vanguard explorer(VHGEX).

Then I will start slowly dollar cost averaging into some bond funds to reduce the variations.

Keep in mind I am 26 with 50-60k salary. I am investing 11% of salary into 401k at work with 75% match to 3% of salary - basically 14% goes into the 401K.

I am investing on average 4-6k per month of poker money into the taxable account and living expenses are paid out of salary. Should I just keep adding to these funds with the poker money or diversify more???

Too much diversity, overweighted, etc...any advice is appreciated.

Thanks,

Orange

P.s. What can I put money that I will need to pay taxes in that will make more than .5% interest until april????

P.P.S I want to retire at 35-40 without having to count on poker income /images/graemlins/smile.gif

adios
12-08-2003, 04:28 PM
"S&P 500 Index (VFINX) - 55%
Large Cap Value (DODGX) - 9%
Small/Mid Blend (CGMFX) - 10%
Small Growth (VISGX)- 9%
Realty Fund (CGMRX) - 7%
Men's Warehouse (MW) - 4%
NY Healthcare (BBAL) - 4% (Planning on selling this too and finding a better stock)"

FWIW I think this represents a very reasonable long term porfolio.

Wildbill
12-08-2003, 04:44 PM
I think the MW play will be very short lived. The concept of "getting serious" seems almost silly to me. It implies that people working 12 hour days non-stop and doing multiple roles due to layoffs wasn't enough. Not to mention most people had plenty of suits in the closet and will be minimal in their new purchases. I just think there isn't much demand to go back to the business attire and it will play out very quickly. A lot of people consider business casual to be a selling point in job interviews, believe it or not, and if the job market gets a little better I think many companies will think twice about reversing the trend as MW seems to imply. I mean there isn't any good empirical evidence either way so just think of it from a common sense standpoint, do you really think the country as a whole is going to go back to formal attire??? I would have to say absolutely not.

OrangeHeat
12-08-2003, 05:01 PM
Hi Bill,

I am not planning on holding this long term.

I would say however that everything is not going casual. There has been a reverse trend in most of the companies I deal with, including mine, to go back towards professional dress. I don't know why - I prefer to be comfortable but these are the rules I guess.

I think in the short term when the job markets open up - there will be a modest increase in demand. I am figuring holding until june timeframe when graduations occur, college kids dumping their sandals for interview outfits, weddings, etc.. come in.

There is not a huge downside risk as the company has good balance sheet and decent sales at this point. P/E is a little high at 20 but they are not going out of business. This will be a 6mos to a year position for me.

Then I'll roll it over into another mutual fund.

Orange

AceHigh
12-08-2003, 10:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
P.s. What can I put money that I will need to pay taxes in that will make more than .5% interest until april????


[/ QUOTE ]

REIT's will pay dividends, if you are looking for that kind of investment. NFI, IMH and ACAS pay yields of ~10% or greater.

squiffy
12-09-2003, 03:27 PM
I don't believe in short selling because it is tremendously risky. But if you were going to sell short, homebuilders and mortgage lenders are starting to tank, big time.

I would start saving up to buy some real estate. You have plenty of stocks.

Stocks and real estate are my two big things. They both offer tremendous capital appreciation. And real estate gives you outstanding deductions and any gain is tax deferred.

Some real estate gains are tax free. If you live in the home two of the 5 years before you sell it, and if you income is below a certain level, if you sell the home for a profit, you don't pay tax on either 125K or 250K. I forget the actual numbers.

I bought a home in Fresno last year for 200k. It's worth 250K to 280K now, on paper. If you can get a low interest rate, that's wonderful. Though the problem is that when interest rates are low, real estate prices tend to be high.

You have to make sure you buy in a safe area that will hold its value.

Now that you have sold BBAL, I'm sure it will quadruple in value, just to prove us wrong. Just kidding.

squiffy
12-09-2003, 04:45 PM
Also, I don't like grocery stores. But some say the strike has artificially depressed the value of grocery stocks, so that some may be a good buy. Grocery stores don't have great margins, and the traditional grocers are being pressured by Wal-Mart which has non union labor and is starting to take away business. But it may be a sensible short term play, if you believe that the grocer is fundamentally sound and that the strike is temporarily depressing prices and that prices will recover eventually.

adios
12-09-2003, 05:21 PM
"I don't believe in short selling because it is tremendously risky. But if you were going to sell short, homebuilders and mortgage lenders are starting to tank, big time."

Seems to be opposed to this IMO.

"I would start saving up to buy some real estate. You have plenty of stocks."

I'll concede that if one can uncover an undervalued piece of real estate then by all means go for it. However, I think that many of the dynamics that have driven home builders and lenders have lead to higher real estate prices especially higher residential real estate prices.

Not arguing with your premise about home builders and lenders (check out Washington Mutual today) but simply stating that one may want to be very cautious in investing in residential real estate anyway at this point. Also I'm not arguing with your basic suggestion to diversify among asset classes either i.e. diversifying among real estate and stocks. I think as a long run investment strategy that's an excellent idea. REITs do provide a way to do this as well and I'd be cautious with them too at this point. For that matter I'd be cautious about stocks as well.