HELP - please!!

[TJD]

HELP – Please!!!

This is quite long but I would really appreciate you taking the time to read it and replying. I am going round in circles here!

I am struggling to get clear in my mind a very important concept. I give some of my thoughts (ramblings?) below. Could you please comment to help me sort this out. Thanks.

It refers to the stage in a LIMIT hold’em tournament when we are down to 7 players or so, stakes/blinds are increasing rapidly and you are below average chips but not almost broke.

I play in tournaments where the stakes are 15/30; 30/60; 50/100; 100/200; 200/400; 400/600; 600/1200; 1000/2000 and we all start with 800 chips. The stakes go up every 10 hands.

I play even tighter in the first 2 levels than I would in a ring game. Most pots are multi-way; players are loose both preflop and post flop meaning that the odds are significantly against any hand standing up.

Often, the players attitudes have not changed even @ the 50/100 level. If the players do play in the same way at this level, I will still be playing very tight. It is still not unusual to see an UTG raiser get 4/5 callers and the chance of ANY raise from ANY position stealing the blinds is next to nil. However, at this stage more players are wary from the flop onwards and more pots are won without a showdown. Because this is a limit tournament we will not have lost many (any) players by now. Occasionally we might be down to 9 but it is during this stage and the next that we start to lose players

At the 100/200 level things really begin to hot up. We may well be down to 7/8 players and another will go pretty soon. My chip position will either be reasonable because I was lucky enough to get a premium hand(s) that held up; poor because my premium hand(s) got cracked or, in most cases, moderate which is in the region 550-650 chips.

With 7 players left, the average stack of the other players will be 1050 say. Sometimes, these are reasonably evenly split, on other occasions there will be one or 2 players with big stacks and several other players in the same or worse shape as me. I am not overly worried about being behind the average at this stage (I’d prefer not to be /images/graemlins/smile.gif); just one pot can change everything at these stakes.

It is at this stage that play tightens up considerably. A preflop raise CAN win the blinds! Sometimes even the BB picks up the SB unopposed. Pots are sometimes HU. Betting at a ragged flop DOES win a fair amount of the time even with 2 or 3 opponents in the pot.

This is the area where I am completely confused.

One thing is certain. If I sit here and just fold all hands, I will be blinded away!

One thing is uncertain. I have no idea whether I will be dealt a decent pocket in the next 20/30 hands.

It seems to me that aggression has more chance than waiting for good hands. Three things can happen:-

1) My preflop raise may win the blinds
2) If I keep betting/raising the opponents may fold
3) I may be lucky and hit the best hand

However, this can only work if I have enough chips. By the time I put in the blinds on the 100/200 level, I will be down to 350/500 chips left. If I take no action till the 200/400 level, I either will not be able to raise PF (350) or will not even be able to make a full bet on the flop (500). This weakness significantly reduces the possibility of 1) and 2) working above, so I think I probably just need to find the best “all-in” hand available to me in the time left before I am blinded out.

This need to take action in the small window between the time that players have become nervous and tighter (end of 50/100) and the time when I have no power (beginning of 200/400) leaves me with the 100/200 level only as the time during which I can make a “power play”.

There are only 10 hands at this level. On many of them action may have already been taken before it got to me with a limp or a raise. This ruins the idea of taking the “first strike” initiative; also the gap concept should make me wary. Of the others, I may just have junk!

Do I just wait for the most advantageous looking situation and then raise with any 2 cards anyway; maybe even raising a limper (not a short stack of course) if nothing else presents itself?

If I get nothing that is any good do I just wait and hope for a good all-in hand later?

I am really confused!!


HELP – please!!


Trevor

[SevenStuda]

Play no-limit tournaments.

[TJD]

SevenStuda,

Sorry, have I misunderstood the purpose of the forum?

I thought it was intended as a help to other players.

I did not ask for help in deciding which type of tournament to play. Where I am based it is limit or nothing!

I find your reply flippant. The question was a genuine attempt to seek help from the more experienced players who selflessly give of their time to help us all improve our standard.

If you have nothing to contribute would it not be better to remain silent?

But, as I said, I may have misunderstood the purpose of the forum.

Trevor

[Bozeman]

You should probably make several moves at the 100/200 level (or the 50/100 level). You need to play the players more than, or at least as much as, the cards. Make a move before you get to less than 3 BB. Also, you may want to be less selective early, since you will often have profitable opportunities to play a drawing hand.

Craig

[Hotrod0823]

I have played very few limit tournaments but the ones I have played I think you can play more hands early on as you should be getting the correct odds. As you progress through the tourney and have a hand you need to open up those hands with which you open raise because like you said you may get the blinds. As the limits increase the callers start playing tighter making your raises more effective.

Same thing goes if there is a raise ahead of you. Release hands that may not hold up to a raise even if in a ring game you may cold call with them or would even raise yourself if you were opening.

In later rounds if it is good enough to call the blinds a raise may be even better because you have the distinct possibilty of winning right there. Don't be afraid to release to a reraise however.

Not an expert but just my 2 cents.

Hotrod

[oneeye13]

i think what he is trying to say is that it is difficult in a limit tournament, with the blinds increasing so fast and being so large compared to the amount of chips on the table, to make a lot more than the juice

[TJD]

These single table events ARE very difficult.

I have played about 200 (a small sample I know).I manage to place about 45% of the time and have a ROI over 30%.

I am only a relative newcomer so I am sure experienced players will do much better. In that case I am sure the juice can be overcome.

However, I really have no faith in my tactics during this difficult stage. I feel as if I am flying by the seat of my pants.

People have offered advice to be a little looser early on and that may be right. I tried it in the last tournament. I was dealt several drawing hands; none came home and I entered this critical stage chip-crippled with no chance at all of applying pressure and was quickly eliminated /images/graemlins/smile.gif

That does not mean that the advice is wrong, but if I had arrived there with 1200 chips, I would still need a lot of luck to survive to the last 3. You always do.

It is the balance of loose/tight play early on and how to play if you arrive at this difficult time with a moderate stack that I can not get to grips with.

I would still welcome comments from others.

Thanks

Trevor

[icecreamwillie]

I mostly play 30+3 one table tournaments at Party. I play essentially the same strategy you describe. My current EV is $15.31 on 30+3.

At the 100/200 limit with a T500 stack, I raise almost any time I am first in. This means I bust out 7'th about 15% of the time, but if I win a couple of hands, I have enough to play with. Up until this limit I play extremely weak tight. I figure any profit I give up at the early limits is made up for if it only slightly increases the odds of a player laying down a hand at higher limits.

I can't say this is correct, only how I play it. I'm very interested to see what other responses you get.

[TJD]

[ QUOTE ]
I figure any profit I give up at the early limits is made up for if it only slightly increases the odds of a player laying down a hand at higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. If I am 400/500 chips up on my starting level, it is nice but it still does not get me through this stage without a lot of luck (or absence of bad luck).

I HAVE to win pots at this level to survive no matter what the size of my stack. If I get good pockets that's OK I might just win with the power of the hand. If not ..... I have to have chips in order to make a move.

That has brought me full circle.

Should I be making moves with poor cards or should I wait to be all in?

Any ideas all you pros out there?

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Trevor