Newbie Questions

[SurfDude]

Hi all,
I've been reading Hold 'Em Poker by Sklansky. It was recommended as a beginning book on the subject. There are, however, a number of things that seem to be missing.

First off, there is no discussion of how to calculate the number of wins or outs you have.

Next, when talking about odds, the following paragraph is exceedingly confusing:

p. 65 "One last situation that seems to confuse many players is this: your opponent has bet, and you know he might be on the come but probably isn't. Be sure to adjust your pot odds to reflect the added possibility that he _makes_ his hand when he is on the come. If there is one card to come, and you feel there is a 20 percent chance that the bettor is on the come, it seems that you can take 5-to-1 with a mediocre hand. However, your opponent will actually win 80 percent plus 4 percent of the time (1/5 of 20 percent) thereby making him over a 5-to-1 favorite. When there are two cards to come, it is even more dangerous to call simply because you think he has a four-flush and you can beat that (for now)."

"Confuse many players" indeed! I read no explanation of why this is the case. I feel like this paragraph was written by someone who knows what's going on _for_ someone who already knows what's going on. As opposed to writing it for someone who needs the explanation - which is the whole point of a beginner's book in the first place.

Hope someone can make sense of this!

SurfDude

[bisonbison]

Unless you are sure that your opponent is drawing to a straight or flush, it can be dangerous to stay in heads up without a decent hand.

If you think he may be drawing to a big hand and you've just got a couple of overcards or bottom pair, you've got to factor in the possibility that you've misread him, and instead of a flush draw, he's got top pair weak-kicker or some such, which beats you most of the time.


As for outs: if you've got JT and a Q and 9 appear on the flop, you've got 4 kings and 4 8s to get you your straight - 8 outs. If that's JT of hearts and there are two hearts on the flop, you've 7 hearts that will give you a flush - 15 outs. On the other hand, if there are 2 spades on the flop, a K or 8 of spades may give your opponent a flush, so you've really only got 6 safe straight outs.

That's all.

[George Rice]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like this paragraph was written by someone who knows what's going on _for_ someone who already knows what's going on. As opposed to writing it for someone who needs the explanation - which is the whole point of a beginner's book in the first place.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that David wrote this as a beginners book. It was the first book on hold'em.

What this paragraph is explaining is that you might think that with a 20% chance that you have the best hand it might seem reasonable to call (with one card to come) if you are getting 5:1 because you are only a 4:1 dog. But with one card to come and a chance that your opponent will draw out on you in addition to already having you beat, he is actually more than a 5:1 favorite (given the circumstances of David's problem). In other words, out of a hundred hands he will win the 80 times he was actually betting with the best hand plus 4 more times he was betting with the worst hand but got lucky on the river. So you have 84 losers and 16 winners (5.25:1), not 80 losers and 20 winners (4:1), and hence 5:1 on your call is not enough.

[ QUOTE ]
First off, there is no discussion of how to calculate the number of wins or outs you have.


[/ QUOTE ]

You need to look at each situation and count your outs. For example, if you have a four flush on the flop how many outs do you have? In hold'em you only see your two cards and the community cards (unlike in stud). If you have two spades in your hand and two other spades came on the flop, you have a four flush. Since you need one more to make a flush, you need one of the remaining nine spades (there are 13 in a deck) to come. So you have nine outs (13-4=9).

Now let's figure your odds of making the flush on the next card. You have seen a total of 5 cards, the two in your hand and the 3 on the flop. So there are 47 unseen cards (52-5=47). So you will make your flush on the next card 9/47 (1/5.22) times. You will not make the flush the other 38/47 (4.22/5.22)times. So the ratio of losers to winners is 38:9, which is reduced to 4.22:1. And that's how you use your outs to figure your chances of improving and the actual odds.

[Dante]

one thing to consider that many newer players miss is that some of your outs are "tainted" meaning you hit your hand and still lose. For example the flop comes

8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif

and you have two clubs. The 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif gives someone with a set a full house, which would beat your flush. You should be careful on paired boards with straight and flush draws.

[pretender2k]

You may find the charts in the back of Ken Warren's "Winner's Guide To Texas Hold'em" very interesting especially if you are as mathematically minded as I am. It gives you exact odds of a lot of situations.

[SurfDude]

Thanks all for the help /images/graemlins/grin.gif

The 80% vs 20% situation seems to make more sense now. Supposing in that situation I flopped top pair. I think he's drawing to a flush. In this situation, then, I would have him beat most of the time so long as he didn't have a smaller set. The 80% vs 20% bit, as far as I understand it, applies to a situation where my opponent may already have me beaten with a top pair and he is merely drawing to a cinch hand such as a flush.

Cheers,

SurfDude

[George Rice]

[ QUOTE ]
The 80% vs 20% bit, as far as I understand it, applies to a situation where my opponent may already have me beaten with a top pair and he is merely drawing to a cinch hand such as a flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, it doesn't mean that he already has you beat and may improve his hand further. That may very well happen but was not relevant to David's point. It's his improving when he doesn't have you beat that reduces your chances of winning the hand. So you won't win 20% of the time.

[SurfDude]

Hmm....

If he doesn't have me beat, and the probability of him making his hand is 20%, how does that make him better than an 80% favorite? /images/graemlins/confused.gif I'm afraid I'm not understanding the logic of this argument from either a short-term or long-term perspective.

Cheers,

SurfDude